388 replies to this topic

[Old Man]

Cool, I can dig it. Liked Cowser from what was said on the Verge podcast the other day. Happy to add him to the system.

Im not against it.

 

Going to see how it plays out first.

 

I have been reading other sides, MASN and FB, and lot of upset posters out there.

[Mike B]

I think we can safely say that last year did not work out. Whether that's the fault of Elias is another story, but the players certainly did not work out how they were expected to.

IMO, we can not say that.  Kjerstad and Baumler could come back and have good careers.  I hope both get healthy and we can let the results speak for themselves.

[makoman]

That is truly frightening. "If the hit tool devlops" is the scariest phrase in baseball scouting.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs said Cowser has the best hit tool in the draft. 

 

https://blogs.fangra...-draft-recap-2/

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs said Cowser has the best hit tool in the draft.

https://blogs.fangra...-draft-recap-2/

Good stuff. Sounds like they really went down to the wire deciding between Watson and Cowser.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Fair. But same exact logic applies to early picks as well.  Your favorite targets don't always make it to your draft position.

Yes but its a double whammy with the underslot approach.

 

When you get to your pick. Whomever is available IS available. Certainly it might not be your targeted first choice but its your pick now and you can have whomever you want that is left on the board. Going underslot because you want to target guys later in the draft just double down on not getting who you want. If they end up not being available (like apparently last year) then you end up not getting who you wanted with your first pick AND the subsequent picks. 

[Slidemaster]

IMO, we can not say that. Kjerstad and Baumler could come back and have good careers. I hope both get healthy and we can let the results speak for themselves.

Sure, anything could happen. Both of them having great careers is highly unlikely (just based on the law of averages). When you factor in Kjerstad's heart, I think that possibility is under 5%. That kid my never play ball again.

[Mackus]

Yes but its a double whammy with the underslot approach.

 

When you get to your pick. Whomever is available IS available. Certainly it might not be your targeted first choice but its your pick now and you can have whomever you want that is left on the board. Going underslot because you want to target guys later in the draft just double down on not getting who you want. If they end up not being available (like apparently last year) then you end up not getting who you wanted with your first pick AND the subsequent picks. 

 

I imagine that teams going underslot in the first are comfortable with several different permutation of the rest of the draft unfolding.  Certainly one or two prime targets they hope will be available at a later pick, but lots of routes they'll be happy with.  I'd agree that a gameplan that revolves heavily around one specific guy being available later on is a flawed plan.

 

I also do think that it's probably somewhat common that teams genuinely feel the guy they take is an equal or better prospect than everyone else available, he just happens to also have lower demands and they can get some extra bullets to improve their draft later on as a bonus and not even really as an alternative.  I imagine that there are tons of disagreements on various boards throughout the league.  Was Henry Davis chosen largely as an underslot candidate or did the Pirates just like him the best of everybody?

[You Play to Win the Game]

I can admire Elias having his way of doing things, and doing it. It's not the most conventional. And it has to work, because the O's aren't building in FA. So he must really believe in their process IMO.

I tend to believe in my gut that everything is awful with the O's, so I'm skeptical. But it'll be a couple more years until we know about Elias anyway. We'll see. Same with Cowser.

[Mike B]

Sure, anything could happen. Both of them having great careers is highly unlikely (just based on the law of averages). When you factor in Kjerstad's heart, I think that possibility is under 5%. That kid my never play ball again.

I think the odds that any team in a 5 round draft having 2 kids go on to have "great careers" is small.  

Hopefully Heston does play ball again, but his getting healthy is the most important factor.

[Mackus]

So will he rank 4th on our top-10?  8th?  I think he's somewhere between there.

 

I'd go Cowser, Henderson, Diaz, Kjerstad, Westburg for our 4th-8th.  Top 3 seem obvious.  Frankly 4 and 5 seem pretty clear to me aside from the order.  I don't think any of the deeper guys have moved up enough to break into that top-8, Smith, Vavra, Bradish, and maybe even Jones are pushing.  Other guys seem to be spinning wheels and getting passed.

[makoman]

One of the FanGraphs guys said he’d be around 90, so 4th or 5th depending on where Gunnar is.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think how the rest of the year plays out will decide whos higher between he and Henderson.

[BobPhelan]

He will slot between Henderson and Kjerstad for me.

[Slidemaster]

Kjerstad shouldn't even be on the list until he can play.

[BobPhelan]

He has the same potential as he did a year ago. Just depends on if he can fully recover the way Eduardo Rodriguez has from the same condition.

[Slidemaster]

He has the same potential as he did a year ago. Just depends on if he can fully recover the way Eduardo Rodriguez has from the same condition.

That just isn't true.

The heart is the center of everything. Even if he returns to good health there is no guarantee he will ever do what he was capable of before Covid.

And that's a big "if." He's had a recurrence already.

[BobPhelan]

That just isn't true.

The heart is the center of everything. Even if he returns to good health there is no guarantee he will ever do what he was capable of before Covid.

And that's a big "if." He's had a recurrence already.

So did Rodriguez last year. Had to be shut down again after he started a throwing progression.

If he recovers fully why wouldn’t he have the same potential?

[Mike B]

That just isn't true.

The heart is the center of everything. Even if he returns to good health there is no guarantee he will ever do what he was capable of before Covid.

And that's a big "if." He's had a recurrence already.

Are you a doctor?  

[Nigel Tufnel]

between he and Henderson.

 

Between *him* and Henderson.

[Slidemaster]

So did Rodriguez last year. Had to be shut down again after he started a throwing progression.

If he recovers fully why wouldn’t he have the same potential?

I'm not saying he couldn't have the same potential. I'm saying that it is far from a given.