388 replies to this topic

[BobPhelan]

I mean if the Orioles can get someone like Bubba Chandler or Will Taylor, ranked 20 and 21 respectively by Baseball America, you have to love that as the top two picks.

[dude]

Not a fan and it has nothing to do with whatever Colton Cowser does or doesn't do in his career.

 

Why would you ever throw away a season to add Colton Cowser.

[Mike in STL]

I don’t hate the pick but I don’t like it either. I’m sick of this quantity over quality bs too. Elias is already wearing thin with me.

Kjerstad was a bs pick as well and not that I’m happy about what’s happened to the kid, but Elias kind of deserved the bad fortune that he got with his medical troubles.

In what world does Elias or anyone “deserve” to have one of his draft picks suffer from a potentially fatal heart problem?

You went under slot so that’s what you get? That's pretty sick.

[Mike in STL]

Not a fan and it has nothing to do with whatever Colton Cowser does or doesn't do in his career.

Why would you ever throw away a season to add Colton Cowser.

Who would you have rather they taken?

[Old Man]

Who would you have rather they taken?

It didnt matter who they picked, somebody would be unhappy.

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: Colton Cowser: “It’s a dream come true”

https://www.masnspor...-come-true.html

 

 

Balt Sun: 5 things to know about Orioles’ No. 5 MLB draft pick Colton Cowser

https://www.baltimor...d7qi-story.html

 

Balt Sun: Orioles reset: Breaking down the selection of Colton Cowser with the O’s top MLB draft pick

[Mike in STL]

Fangraphs had him 7th on their board. ESPN and MLB had him 10th. Baseball America 11th. Doesn't seem like a crazy reach taking Cowser at #5, since there wasn't much consensus on the top players. I guess we'll be keeping an eye out on Rocker and maybe Lawler and see how this plays out, the way we'll keep an eye out on Austin Martin after drafting Kjerstad. But I'm okay passing over the HS SSs, MLB team needs help sooner rather than later. Rather get a guy here in 2023 than in 2025.

 

Just hoping they do go overpay some guys with the next few picks.

 

I get the strategy, but I feel like drafting as high as the Orioles are, it better work out. Time will tell. Maybe this is the thing the Orioles will do different than most teams to get the most talent and long-term success and deeper farm system that allows to you have guys to trade for proven stars if you are buyers at the deadline one day without drying up the well. But I would hate to see them pass up some elite talent to save a few bucks at this stage of team building. Whiffing on these picks to save money while appropriately slotted guys go on to be All-Stars would be grounds for firing. But we'll have to wait a number of years to see this play out. Can't do anything when Kjerstad all a sudden has a heart defect. But since you went over slot for Coby Mayo, it's almost more important that he pans out. 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Law predicted the O's would take Cowser in his June 24 mock draft.

 

2021 MLB Mock Draft 2.0: Jack Leiter to Tigers, Pirates take a high school shortstop in Keith Law’s latest look – The Athletic

 

 

5. Baltimore Orioles: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State

Everyone expects Baltimore to take a position player here and go well under slot so they can go over slot with later picks, as they select again at 41, 65 and 76. They’ve been linked to Harry Ford and Brady House, but it doesn’t seem like either is all that likely to accept a big discount, while Cowser’s market after this probably doesn’t start till pick 9.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Law predicted the O's would take Cowser in his June 24 mock draft.

2021 MLB Mock Draft 2.0: Jack Leiter to Tigers, Pirates take a high school shortstop in Keith Law’s latest look – The Athletic

Yeah there has been some smoke there with Cowser for awhile now. He was in for a private workout recently. Dont think that ever got out publically but had it been known it would've made the match that much easier to make.

[Mackus]

Difference in slot between #5 and #9 is $1.2M.  Saw dude doing a back-of-napkin estimate for what they might save.  I think somewhere in the $750k - $1.25M range seems reasonable.  If it's less than $750k then I think the worthwhileness of going underslot starts eroding away.  

 

Also gotta see how they use the extra capital.  Last year I think their prime targets for #30 and #39 were gone so they used the savings much later on.  I don't have any numbers or research to back up an opinion on this, but I like that result less than had they been able to get someone they think is a top-20ish guy in with one of the earlier picks.

[makoman]

I can understand, somewhat, people having strong opinions about the NFL draft. A lot of people watch tons of college football, and have probably seen numerous full games of many of the top prospects. Hell I never watch college games and I've probably seen Ben Cleveland, 94th pick, play more than the whole MLB draft combined. Even though most people have no clue what they're looking at as far as scouting goes, at least they've watched guys play and can develop opinions.

 

It's always weird to me when people have such strong opinions about the MLB draft. How many Sam Houston games have you guys watched? How many Eastlake HS or Wake Forest HS games? Yeah, maybe you've read some mock drafts and watched some YouTube videos, or even actually watched a few full Vanderbilt games. But if you don't do this almost for a living none of us have seen enough games of enough prospects to have any idea how to compare them to each other and develop any real opinions on our own, so all that's happening is people parrot various experts. Yet, as Mackus has tried to show over and over, even the experts who are paid a lot of money to do this have very little track record in showing that, say, the consensus #5 guy will have a better MLB career than the #15 guy. Far less track record than in the NFL, IMO

 

I'm not saying don't discuss things, read up on these guys and have at it if that's fun to you. I'm not saying don't rely on experts, that's all we've really got on most of these guys. But when you're so sure that a guy is just a terrible pick it tells me you probably wanted to come to that conclusion no matter what, because nobody can be sure of that today. Especially when a guy taken at 5 is thought of by experts as maybe around #7-15. This isn't even a Hobgood where everybody thinks he was taken 20 or 25 picks too high.

 

An aside: I'm not trying to disparage the guys who I know do pay a ton of attention, like Bob Phelan or Stephen Lofthus to name a couple...but I think the guys who pay a ton of attention have some humility. You can be excited or disappointed without seeming so sure of the result. It's like we forget that Trey Mancini was the 249th pick, Cedric Mullins the 403rd pick.

[BSLRoseKatz]

I agree with your point about how virtually none of us casually sit down and watch a college baseball game like you would for basketball or football but it's also a result of where this team is in the rebuild where discussing Colton Cowser is much more interesting than discussing the fact that Thomas Eshelman should probably not be on a major league roster

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Difference in slot between #5 and #9 is $1.2M.  Saw dude doing a back-of-napkin estimate for what they might save.  I think somewhere in the $750k - $1.25M range seems reasonable.  If it's less than $750k then I think the worthwhileness of going underslot starts eroding away.  

 

Also gotta see how they use the extra capital.  Last year I think their prime targets for #30 and #39 were gone so they used the savings much later on.  I don't have any numbers or research to back up an opinion on this, but I like that result less than had they been able to get someone they think is a top-20ish guy in with one of the earlier picks.

Why I dislike this approach  right there.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Fangraphs had him 7th on their board. ESPN and MLB had him 10th. Baseball America 11th. Doesn't seem like a crazy reach taking Cowser at #5, since there wasn't much consensus on the top players. I guess we'll be keeping an eye out on Rocker and maybe Lawler and see how this plays out, the way we'll keep an eye out on Austin Martin after drafting Kjerstad. But I'm okay passing over the HS SSs, MLB team needs help sooner rather than later. Rather get a guy here in 2023 than in 2025.

 

Just hoping they do go overpay some guys with the next few picks.

 

I get the strategy, but I feel like drafting as high as the Orioles are, it better work out. Time will tell. Maybe this is the thing the Orioles will do different than most teams to get the most talent and long-term success and deeper farm system that allows to you have guys to trade for proven stars if you are buyers at the deadline one day without drying up the well. But I would hate to see them pass up some elite talent to save a few bucks at this stage of team building. Whiffing on these picks to save money while appropriately slotted guys go on to be All-Stars would be grounds for firing. But we'll have to wait a number of years to see this play out. Can't do anything when Kjerstad all a sudden has a heart defect. But since you went over slot for Coby Mayo, it's almost more important that he pans out. 

I agree with your point but lets see if this guy really makes it to the O's in 2023. I have my doubts. You know baseball is really hard and it takes a long time for these guys to progress to the ML level.....lol

[Mackus]

Why I dislike this approach  right there.

 

Fair. But same exact logic applies to early picks as well.  Your favorite targets don't always make it to your draft position.

[Mike B]

Last year it worked out - was able to get us Mayo and Baumler even though he's hurt.

We'll see about this year.

I don't know if we can say last year worked out.  Who knows.  The issue, that I think most of us have, is we do not know these guys like we do baseball and football.  The players in those sports are seen regularly, so we know more about them.

 

We have to hope that Elias and the scouts know , what they are doing....Time will tell.    The jury is still out.

[Slidemaster]

Fair. But same exact logic applies to early picks as well. Your favorite targets don't always make it to your draft position.

It isn't really the same. You can look at your top 5 favorite guys and know for certain one will be there when you pick this high. When you're looking 35-40 picks down the line there's a lot more variance. This is also why I'd rather take the most elite talent I can afford in every round. These draft classes are likely to only produce between 0-2 MLB players anyway. Make them the most talented ones you can find.

[Slidemaster]

I don't know if we can say last year worked out. Who knows. The issue, that I think most of us have, is we do not know these guys like we do baseball and football. The players in those sports are seen regularly, so we know more about them.

We have to hope that Elias and the scouts know , what they are doing....Time will tell. The jury is still out.

I think we can safely say that last year did not work out. Whether that's the fault of Elias is another story, but the players certainly did not work out how they were expected to.

[Mike in STL]

I agree with your point but lets see if this guy really makes it to the O's in 2023. I have my doubts. You know baseball is really hard and it takes a long time for these guys to progress to the ML level.....lol

Honestly I don’t think he will be either because the O’s still won’t be good enough to warrant it.

Optimistically, as a 21 y/o college player I’d hope he starts at Delmarva for a minute and finishes at Aberdeen. Starts at Aberdeen for a few weeks in 22’, most of 22’ at Bowie. Start 23’ in Norfolk and get the call up mid season when the O’s are in the hunt.

But I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s teammates with Yusniel Diaz for like three years in the minors either.

[Coker]

Cool, I can dig it. Liked Cowser from what was said on the Verge podcast the other day. Happy to add him to the system.