121 replies to this topic

[Mike B]

I didn't watch much of the game yesterday, but the few innings I did see I thought  Wells looked as good as I have seen him.  I watched the first few innings and he was very pitch effective.

 

I think we need some of these guys to come through.  Wells and Zimmerman establishing themselves as real big league starters would be a big plus..

[BaltBird 24]

...so I agree. My thought is still...so Are we really going to leave him in the rotation when guys like GRod and Hall get up and Means comes back. I doubt we're going with a 6 man rotation, so you are picking your 5 guys.

I mean, even if Rodriguez, Hall, and Means all live up to their potential or return to pre injury levels..... they're still going to need 2 more guys to fill out a rotation. Why not give Wells a shot? He's probably better than all the other options not named Bradish and Zimmermann.

[Mackus]

I disagree with the implication that letting Wells start now is somehow preventing or delaying him from achieving a role of a shut down reliever.  The more experience the better, and you'll get more experience starting than relieving.  If he happens to be good enough to start long term, then great.  If you decide he's not, then you can switch him back to the bullpen at that time.  You can always go from starter to reliever.  You can't always go the other direction.

 

I'd prefer if we had some more MLB quality arms in the rotation ahead of him and that Wells was currently in the bullpen for that reason.  But given the current roster, I see no reason to punt Wells to the pen.

[BobPhelan]

I disagree with the implication that letting Wells start now is somehow preventing or delaying him from achieving a role of a shut down reliever. The more experience the better, and you'll get more experience starting than relieving. If he happens to be good enough to start long term, then great. If you decide he's not, then you can switch him back to the bullpen at that time. You can always go from starter to reliever. You can't always go the other direction.

I'd prefer if we had some more MLB quality arms in the rotation ahead of him and that Wells was currently in the bullpen for that reason. But given the current roster, I see no reason to punt Wells to the pen.

Agreed.

He looked great last night getting a bunch of swings and misses against a good offense.

[Mike B]

I think they should keep sending Wells out there.  The only thing that makes this season interesting is to continue to try to find players.  Wells may be one of the keepers.  Let's find out.

 

The thing that I think may happen is they use Wells as a tag team with GRod, Hall or even Bradish.  It will help them control innings.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Win #1 today.

 

6ip, 5 hits, 1 er, 0 bb's, 3 k's, 0 hr's

 

ERA now 3.75.

[dude]

Win #1 today.

 

6ip, 5 hits, 1 er, 0 bb's, 3 k's, 0 hr's

 

ERA now 3.75.

 

I didn't get to see it, but good start. 

Also, that was on 75 pitches, so if you want to let him work deeper soon, you certainly could.

 

Doesn't change the question I've asked.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I didn't get to see it, but good start. 

Also, that was on 75 pitches, so if you want to let him work deeper soon, you certainly could.

 

Doesn't change the question I've asked.

Is he one of the 5 starters when Means comes back is irrelevant right now when Means isn't available. 

[BaltBird 24]

Going to need starters not named Rodriguez and Hall. No reason Wells can't be in the mix with guys like Bradish, Zimmermann, etc for those 4th/5th starter spots.

[Mike B]

Going to need starters not named Rodriguez and Hall. No reason Wells can't be in the mix with guys like Bradish, Zimmermann, etc for those 4th/5th starter spots.

Very true, I hope this years group wins enough games to take away any reason, why they do not spend the next off season.

It would be nice to have too many starter candidates then not enough.

[makoman]

I don't even know what pitch quality is, but Wells seems to have it. It's kind of odd he doesn't strike anybody out, he did last year and in the minors. 

 

MLB Quality of Pitch
@qopbaseball

 

#Orioles Tyler Wells

 

2022 Pitch Quality

 

5.15 QOPA (Top 4% MLB)

 

ChangeUp 5.81 QOPA (Top 1%)
Slider 5.47 QOPA (Top 1%)
Sinker 5.80 QOPA (Top 11%)
Fastball 4.80 QOPA (Top 21%)
Curveball 4.58 QOPA (Top 36%)

Elite Pitch Quality 

 

6:46 PM June 16, 2022

 

 

 

[BobPhelan]

I agree the strikeout rate is surprising considering the stuff. But I’ll take the walk rate for now and maybe he can make some adjustments over the offseason.

[BSLRoseKatz]

2.57 ERA in June after 5 scoreless last night

[You Play to Win the Game]

Fangraphs calls his sinker a cutter and he didn’t have that pitch last year. That has been a huge difference maker this year for Wells, as well as pitching more to contact and getting weak contact. K% down, swinging strike % down, but effectiveness up. They do have his xFip in the mid-4’s but expected ERA high 3’s.

I don’t think his true upside is the shutdown ace he was in June, but he’s definitely a very intriguing keeper moving forward.

[Hooded Viper]

He’s a solid 3/4 in my book and a keeper!

[Mackus]

Wells is currently at 75 innings.  What do we think his limit for the season is?  57 last year from the pen.  I think you can take him to about 125 without feeling irresponsible or setting him up for a problem in 2023.  Max of about 140.

 

~80 games left means he would be in line for 15-16 more starts.

 

You could place no limits at all on him and just let him do what he's gonna do and see what happens.  You can limit him to 3 innings for the final 5 or so starts.  You could skip him occasionally so he only makes 12 more starts over the remainder of the season.  Could move him to the bullpen once he's close to where you want him to finish.  Could shut him down for the final couple weeks.

 

Another option...is the option.  Send him down for 3 weeks (21 days minimum) during the season.  Those 3 weeks not accruing service time would mean he would finish the year with less than two years of service, rather than actually reaching two full years as he is on pace to do.  So you then control him all the way through 2027 instead of only through 2026.  He's not a guy I'd really think about manipulating for the purpose of service time, but if you're going to be doing some funky stuff anyways to limit his innings, I think its a good two-birds-one-stone solution.

[NewMarketSean]

Or, just let him pitch.

 

He's 27 and looks like he sat out the 2019 and 2020 season.

 

His arm should be able to handle 140 IP just fine.

[BobPhelan]

Wells is currently at 75 innings. What do we think his limit for the season is? 57 last year from the pen. I think you can take him to about 125 without feeling irresponsible or setting him up for a problem in 2023. Max of about 140.

~80 games left means he would be in line for 15-16 more starts.

You could place no limits at all on him and just let him do what he's gonna do and see what happens. You can limit him to 3 innings for the final 5 or so starts. You could skip him occasionally so he only makes 12 more starts over the remainder of the season. Could move him to the bullpen once he's close to where you want him to finish. Could shut him down for the final couple weeks.

Another option...is the option. Send him down for 3 weeks (21 days minimum) during the season. Those 3 weeks not accruing service time would mean he would finish the year with less than two years of service, rather than actually reaching two full years as he is on pace to do. So you then control him all the way through 2027 instead of only through 2026. He's not a guy I'd really think about manipulating for the purpose of service time, but if you're going to be doing some funky stuff anyways to limit his innings, I think its a good two-birds-one-stone solution.

Still think they could tandem DL Hall with him.

But I think between 125-140 sounds right. Hyde said he’s not gonna get to 150.

[Mackus]

Or, just let him pitch.

 

He's 27 and looks like he sat out the 2019 and 2020 season.

 

His arm should be able to handle 140 IP just fine.

 

If you're gonna stop him at 140 then you can't just let him pitch.  He'll exceed that at his current pace and projection, unless he misses some time naturally due to an injury or a string of bad/short outings.

[NewMarketSean]

Skip a start here and there if you must.

 

I'm not a fan of micromanaging pitch counts and innings.

 

There are only so many bullets in that gun. Don't save them for a rainy day that may never come.