153 replies to this topic

[BobPhelan]

Bob, or anyone else here, does Stowers impact how you'd feel about a Santander trade?

No not on his own but the outfield depth in general reinforces my opinion that Santander should be traded if you get a good offer for him whether it’s the offseason or trade deadline.

[Mike B]

No not on his own but the outfield depth in general reinforces my opinion that Santander should be traded if you get a good offer for him whether it’s the offseason or trade deadline.

Because, I am a pain in the ass, I have to ask, what would constitute a good offer at this point of the rebuild??

[BobPhelan]

Because, I am a pain in the ass, I have to ask, what would constitute a good offer at this point of the rebuild??

 

Its not usually my area of expertise to come up with the trade ideas, kind of a know it when you see it thing. I'm just not a believer in Santander and I don't think he is going to age particularly well.

[Mike B]

Its not usually my area of expertise to come up with the trade ideas, kind of a know it when you see it thing. I'm just not a believer in Santander and I don't think he is going to age particularly well.

Yea, I usually stay out of trade talk.  My question was more general.  I know it is no surprise, but if they trade Santander, or Mancini or some one similar, I want to see major league ready talent.

I do not want to see a trade for someone 4 years down the road.

[BobPhelan]

I could see a mix of both. He’s not going to get you a stud but maybe a pitching prospect knocking on the door and a lower level minor leaguer or two.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I'd rather keep him and potentially get nothing vs. trade him now for what he'd bring back.

[Mike B]

I'd rather keep him and potentially get nothing vs. trade him now for what he'd bring back.

This is where I am.  My thought, stop making the major league team worse.

I am not sure we have outfielders ready to replace him next year.  Stowers seems like a 4th outfielder to me.  Diaz, has done nothing to earn a spot on the major league team.  Stewart is atrocious in the outfield.  etc.

[BobPhelan]

I would trade Mancini and Santander if the return is fair (debatable I know). Neither is going to be a contributor on the contending 2023 team. Go into 2022 with Hays, Mullins, McKenna, and Robert Neustrom or a cheap free agent signing/trade acquisition. Jorge Mateo and Jahmai Jones can play outfield too. 

 

The outfield depth is coming. I think Stowers can be at least the strong side of a platoon with Hays or whoever. But you also have Neustrom, Diaz, Zach Watson, Johnny Rizer, Hudson Haskin, Colton Cowser, etc, etc. 

 

I just think you can fairly easily replace the production they provide and get something for them in the process.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Sure, you move Santander if the return is good enough this offseason. It wont be. Two 3 good months to start '22 could net you a good bit more at the deadline than this offseason. Not worried about not getting anything for him. If hes a non tender guy after '22 you're not losing much value.

[BobPhelan]

Sure, you move Santander if the return is good enough this offseason. It wont be. Two 3 good months to start '22 could net you a good bit more at the deadline than this offseason. Not worried about not getting anything for him. If hes a non tender guy after '22 you're not losing much value.

 

Also fair. Hoping for a torrid final month to help inflate his value.

[mweb08]

I would trade Mancini and Santander if the return is fair (debatable I know). Neither is going to be a contributor on the contending 2023 team. Go into 2022 with Hays, Mullins, McKenna, and Robert Neustrom or a cheap free agent signing/trade acquisition. Jorge Mateo and Jahmai Jones can play outfield too.

The outfield depth is coming. I think Stowers can be at least the strong side of a platoon with Hays or whoever. But you also have Neustrom, Diaz, Zach Watson, Johnny Rizer, Hudson Haskin, Colton Cowser, etc, etc.

I just think you can fairly easily replace the production they provide and get something for them in the process.

Why do you say they won't be contributors for the '23 team?

[BaltBird 24]

Why do you say they won't be contributors for the '23 team?

Right, I don't see anyone beating down the door to take the 1B/DH spot from Mancini in the next year or two. They should be fairly set with Mountcastle and Mancini fixed at those positions for the immediate future.

I guess that changes if they decide to trade or let Mancini walk via FA.

[BobPhelan]

Why do you say they won't be contributors for the '23 team?

Mancini is a free agent after ‘22 and is an above average player at a non-premium position. He’s likely to be around average two years from now and on the wrong side of the aging curve. I don’t think Elias has any intention of extending him.

Santander is a league average corner outfielder, hot 30 games in 2020 notwithstanding, with just as much injury proneness as Austin Hays (99 wRC+ in 2019, 100 wRC+ this year). I think Elias finds a suitor for him within the next year or so.

[mweb08]

Mancini is a free agent after ‘22 and is an above average player at a non-premium position. He’s likely to be around average two years from now and on the wrong side of the aging curve. I don’t think Elias has any intention of extending him.

Santander is a league average corner outfielder, hot 30 games in 2020 notwithstanding, with just as much injury proneness as Austin Hays (99 wRC+ in 2019, 100 wRC+ this year). I think Elias finds a suitor for him within the next year or so.

My primary counter is that the next 3 years are great years to pay decent to good players. Santander is more expendable, but Mancini is someone that seems very helpful for '23 and '24. That is unless they actually make a big splash at first.

[Mike B]

Mancini is a free agent after ‘22 and is an above average player at a non-premium position. He’s likely to be around average two years from now and on the wrong side of the aging curve. I don’t think Elias has any intention of extending him.

Santander is a league average corner outfielder, hot 30 games in 2020 notwithstanding, with just as much injury proneness as Austin Hays (99 wRC+ in 2019, 100 wRC+ this year). I think Elias finds a suitor for him within the next year or so.

Probably true, but if Elias has 2 more years like this, I have no interest in extending him. 

[BobPhelan]

My primary counter is that the next 3 years are great years to pay decent to good players. Santander is more expendable, but Mancini is someone that seems very helpful for '23 and '24. That is unless they actually make a big splash at first.

Mountcastle is the first baseman for the next 5+ years. No need to spend on a DH. Don’t get me wrong, as a fan of Trey I will be happy if they extend him for a few years. I just don’t see it happening.

[mweb08]

Mountcastle is the first baseman for the next 5+ years. No need to spend on a DH. Don’t get me wrong, as a fan of Trey I will be happy if they extend him for a few years. I just don’t see it happening.

If Trey is gone, then there's a hole at let's say DH since you think Mountcastle should play first. I don't see good internal candidates for '23 there with the possible exception of keeping Santandar. I also highly doubt that they'll apply the '23 savings on Trey to '25 or beyond.

That last line is my biggest issue with all of this. If they were actually going to use these tens of millions of savings every year and spend it when they plan on being competitive, that would make a lot of sense. That is very unlikely to happen though, so I'd rather they spend on some talent for these next 3 years while the hopeful upcoming core is cheap.

[BobPhelan]

I think they will be competitive starting in 2023 and will spend money to do so so I can see where the disagreement on this topic comes from.

I also don’t think DH is ever a hole you need to fill. Adley will catch ~80 games with the Orioles next year and you want his bat in the lineup as much as possible so put him at DH. Same with the outfield depth coming up. Plus any other acquisitions. There will be enough bats to use at DH very soon.

[mweb08]

I think they will be competitive starting in 2023 and will spend money to do so so I can see where the disagreement on this topic comes from.

I also don’t think DH is ever a hole you need to fill. Adley will catch ~80 games with the Orioles next year and you want his bat in the lineup as much as possible so put him at DH. Same with the outfield depth coming up. Plus any other acquisitions. There will be enough bats to use at DH very soon.

I am not saying that they won't spend money. I am saying that they won't apply the savings from these rebuilding years to the hopefully competitive years. So if in 2024, the revenue suggests they can go up to a $160 million payroll, they might do that, but I'm pretty sure they won't push that to $190 million since they banked extra money during the rebuild.

[mweb08]

I think they will be competitive starting in 2023 and will spend money to do so so I can see where the disagreement on this topic comes from.

I also don’t think DH is ever a hole you need to fill. Adley will catch ~80 games with the Orioles next year and you want his bat in the lineup as much as possible so put him at DH. Same with the outfield depth coming up. Plus any other acquisitions. There will be enough bats to use at DH very soon.

As for the 2nd paragraph, well Trey would still play plenty of first if retained, and other than having Adley DH from to time, I'm not sure where all these bats are coming from very soon if Trey and Santander are gone. You mention outfield depth, but I don't see anyone that is close to someone we'd be confident in being productive for the O's in the next two years, and even if someone is, they'll just replace Santander in this scenario where he's gone. Hays is still a question mark as well. So there will be room for a good young outfielder by 2023 if one is knocking on the O's door in the scenario where only one of Mancini or Santander are gone. Heck, there may even be room with both of them being around and productive.