153 replies to this topic

[BobPhelan]

I am not saying that they won't spend money. I am saying that they won't apply the savings from these rebuilding years to the hopefully competitive years. So if in 2024, the revenue suggests they can go up to a $160 million payroll, they might do that, but I'm pretty sure they won't push that to $190 million since they banked extra money during the rebuild.

Oh yeah that I agree with.

As for Trey/DH. I’m talking about 2023 with the depth. By then Henderson, Westburg, Cowser, Stowers, Neustrom, Zach Watson, Vavra, etc will all be ready or knocking on the door. Plus whoever else is acquired. Trey will be 31 and most likely league average and dropping.

[mweb08]

Oh yeah that I agree with.

As for Trey/DH. I’m talking about 2023 with the depth. By then Henderson, Westburg, Cowser, Stowers, Neustrom, Zach Watson, Vavra, etc will all be ready or knocking on the door. Plus whoever else is acquired. Trey will be 31 and most likely league average and dropping.

 

Hopefully to all of those guys, but all being legit ready or close is very optimistic. Some of these guys will very likely have issue to prevent them from being worthy of giving an opportunity in the Bigs by 2023.

 

Most of those guys wouldn't slot into DH either, right?

 

I was actually at the Bowie game last night and saw Watson have a good game, but if he makes it to the majors, it won't be at DH. Perhaps he ends up taking Hays or Santander's spot though. More than likely, he never becomes a good starter though, so unless he and others like him (lower tier prospects) really push their way to the Orioles, I wouldn't plan on making room for him.

[BobPhelan]

You don’t plan on anyone being a DH. It’s a place you put excess talent to get their bat in the lineup. It’s useful to keep open especially with Elias being a fan of versatility.

[mweb08]

You don’t plan on anyone being a DH. It’s a place you put excess talent to get their bat in the lineup. It’s useful to keep open especially with Elias being a fan of versatility.

 

That's a fine approach in general, but I prefer being flexible in this regard. So I'm not getting rid of a good bat / fan favorite after years of tanking (unless they can get something in return better than I would guess) in order to create room for prospects that are mostly some combination of unlikely to ever be good major leaguers and/or don't fit the profile of a DH, even an occasional one. If Zach Watson becomes good enough to be something a team is cool with giving some AB's at DH, he'll just consistently play in the outfield because his defense warrants that. The type of players that should ideally share DH duties are guys like Mancini, Santander, and of course our current primary DH, Ryan Mountcastle. Not speedy outfielders that don't hit super well or middle infielders. 

 

So unless there's a trade out there that's better than I'd guess for Mancini, I'd rather make these prospects as well as Hays prove that there isn't room for Trey in 2023 rather than plan on it, especially since some of these guys aren't even close to being special prospects, some are unlikely to be up before the trade deadline of 2023, and some should play more premium defensive positions if they pan out. 

[mweb08]

Also, Trey wouldn't have to be an everyday DH anyway. He'd probably still be the ideal 1B on the team and while I wouldn't want him playing much OF, he could spell guys out there if the roster construction warrants it.

[BobPhelan]

Of course I’m not counting on giving at bats at DH to Watson. But if you have Mullins, Hays, Rutschman, Mountcastle, Vavra, Henderson, Westburg, Stowers, Jahmai Jones, Mateo, etc. My point is that you can use the DH to get everyone at bats and rotating them in the field. The position player depth is going to be very good, very soon.

Again, I would be happy if they signed Mancini through the 2024 season, I’m just reading the tea leaves. And I don’t think he plays the outfield again unless it’s an emergency.

[mweb08]

Of course I’m not counting on giving at bats at DH to Watson. But if you have Mullins, Hays, Rutschman, Mountcastle, Vavra, Henderson, Westburg, Stowers, Jahmai Jones, Mateo, etc. My point is that you can use the DH to get everyone at bats and rotating them in the field. The position player depth is going to be very good, very soon.

Again, I would be happy if they signed Mancini through the 2024 season, I’m just reading the tea leaves. And I don’t think he plays the outfield again unless it’s an emergency.

Some of these guys likely won't deserve to be in this picture once the team starts competing and once they get in the picture, some won't stay there. That's just the nature of prospects.

Otherwise, this is getting repetitive, so I'll just emphasize my prior point that for some of these players, they should just never DH unless they become much better hitters than expected. This year's version of Austin Hays for instance should never DH on a team trying to make the playoffs. First off, he's good defensively, but beyond that if you want to rest him, a better bat should be available to DH. If Henderson makes the majors in 2023, the same would likely be true there, and if not, he'd only get a couple of starts in at DH anyway.

[BobPhelan]

The specific names in my example weren’t important. It’s a way to give players some rest while keeping their bat in the lineup. Say Adley DH’s two days a week, Vavra once a week, Stowers once a week, Henderson once a week, and Westburg once a week.

I would never sign someone specifically to be a DH unless it’s a Nelson Cruz type masher.

[mweb08]

The specific names in my example weren’t important. It’s a way to give players some rest while keeping their bat in the lineup. Say Adley DH’s two days a week, Vavra once a week, Stowers once a week, Henderson once a week, and Westburg once a week.

I would never sign someone specifically to be a DH unless it’s a Nelson Cruz type masher.

 

The names are important though when when we're planning for the next two years. They're important because some of these guys should not DH when they rest unless things go much better than expected and the collective group isn't strong enough to expect many of them to be productive major leaguers by 2023. This collection of names is not worthy of carving out a ton of DH at bats for in 2023. If they prove to be worthy, then that will be a fantastic problem to have and they can trade from strength. 

 

I am also not sure why you'd plan on DHing these guys so much, other than Adley.

 

Regarding your Cruz statment, again, Trey is not and would not specifically be the DH. He is the primary 1B on the team and would likely continue in that role if retained. Mountcastle is more of the DH, but if he could actually play a decent corner OF, we probably wouldn't be having this conversation. I will say that Trey has been disappointing with the bat this year (I don't like pointing this out due to what he came back from), but if he can get closer to his 2019 form, he'd be very valuable to the club as it hopefully transitions to competitive baseball. 

[Mike B]

The names are important though when when we're planning for the next two years. They're important because some of these guys should not DH when they rest unless things go much better than expected and the collective group isn't strong enough to expect many of them to be productive major leaguers by 2023. This collection of names is not worthy of carving out a ton of DH at bats for in 2023. If they prove to be worthy, then that will be a fantastic problem to have and they can trade from strength. 

 

I am also not sure why you'd plan on DHing these guys so much, other than Adley.

 

Regarding your Cruz statment, again, Trey is not and would not specifically be the DH. He is the primary 1B on the team and would likely continue in that role if retained. Mountcastle is more of the DH, but if he could actually play a decent corner OF, we probably wouldn't be having this conversation. I will say that Trey has been disappointing with the bat this year (I don't like pointing this out due to what he came back from), but if he can get closer to his 2019 form, he'd be very valuable to the club as it hopefully transitions to competitive baseball. 

I actually think Mountcastle is their first baseman.  I think they would like to play Mountcastle about 110 games at 1B and 45 or so as the DH.  I think Trey would play the reverse role.

 

Trey has slowed down, and I wonder if there is a fatigue factor.   I think he will bounce back in 22. 

[mweb08]

I actually think Mountcastle is their first baseman.  I think they would like to play Mountcastle about 110 games at 1B and 45 or so as the DH.  I think Trey would play the reverse role.

 

Trey has slowed down, and I wonder if there is a fatigue factor.   I think he will bounce back in 22. 

 

They could play Mountcastle more first, but I'm not convinced that's better defensively. Regardless, Trey is unlikely to be an exclusive DH if retained.

 

Good point regarding fatigue potentially being an issue given what he went through.

[BobPhelan]

Mountcastle rates better at first base defensively and I think he will only get better with time (-3 DRS vs 0).

I don’t understand the take that certain players shouldn’t be used at DH. It’s about having a better roster 1 through 26 and using everyone more often.

[BobPhelan]

Also Trey is not the primary first baseman. He only played 8 games there in July and 2 in August when Mountcastle was eligible (9 when he was on the concussion IL).

[mweb08]

Mountcastle rates better at first base defensively and I think he will only get better with time (-3 DRS vs 0).

I don’t understand the take that certain players shouldn’t be used at DH. It’s about having a better roster 1 through 26 and using everyone more often.

 

Fair enough although DRS is far from the end all be all.

 

A better roster from 1-26 precludes below average hitters from getting time at DH because there would be better available hitters for those at bats. 

 

If we have a starting middle infielder that plays good defense with a 90-95 OPS+, he should ideally play 150+ games at his position. For those games that he's resting, just let him rest while Mountcastle or Mancini or a corner outfielder that is an above league average hitter gets those DH at bats. 

 

I'm all for what you're talking about if the O's actually end up with good to great bats independent of position at let's say four of the following positions: C, SS, 2B, 3B, and CF, plus a good depth of bats at the traditionally strong hitting positions. I wouldn't plan on that though. Make these guys prove that they're good enough hitters to push someone out from 1B/DH that is a legit good hitter. 

 

For instance, when we actually had hope for Chance, I was cool with the idea of having him and Adley with each of them getting plenty of rest from behind the plate while getting some time in at DH. So all good with having the DH slot more available to various guys, but this example is also why you don't plan on prospects earning those at bats, and Sisco was a higher rated prospect than most of the guys that may don an O's jersey in the next two seasons. 

[BobPhelan]

Fair enough although DRS is far from the end all be all.

A better roster from 1-26 precludes below average hitters from getting time at DH because there would be better available hitters for those at bats.

If we have a starting middle infielder that plays good defense with a 90-95 OPS+, he should ideally play 150+ games at his position. For those games that he's resting, just let him rest while Mountcastle or Mancini or a corner outfielder that is an above league average hitter gets those at bats.

I'm all for what you're talking about if the O's actually end up with good to great bats independent of position at let's say four of the following positions: C, SS, 2B, 3B, and CF, plus a good depth of bats at the traditionally strong hitting positions. I wouldn't plan on that though. Make these guys prove that they're good enough hitters to push someone out from 1B/DH that is a legit good hitter.

For instance, when we actually had hope for Chance, I was cool with the idea of having him and Adley with each of them getting plenty of rest from behind the plate while getting some time in at DH. So all good with having the DH slot more available to various guys, but this example is also why you don't plan on prospects earning those at bats, and Sisco was a higher rated prospect than most of the guys that may don an O's jersey in the next two seasons.

Absolutely agree about DRS, I personally prefer OOA. (Mancini 2, Mountcastle -2 but that didn’t help my point lol)

I hear what you’re saying. That’s why I prefer not to predict the specific names either externally or internally. More likely it’ll be mostly two or three players getting most time at DH in my scenario, one for LHP one for RHP. Say Adley DH’s when not catching, Neustrom/Stowers/X LH hitter against RHP, and Hays/Jahmai Jones/X RH hitter against LHP.

We’re really not far apart in our thinking, funny to have such a long back and forth in this case but I enjoyed it.

[Mike B]

They could play Mountcastle more first, but I'm not convinced that's better defensively. Regardless, Trey is unlikely to be an exclusive DH if retained.

 

Good point regarding fatigue potentially being an issue given what he went through.

_Trey is the better first baseman, but that is to be expected.  I have seen enough of Mountcastle to think he is going to become a good first baseman and that will be his long term position

Regarding the fatigue, I wonder if the HR derby stint also contributed to the second half issues?.

[BobPhelan]

Sorry for the delay!

 

https://baltimorespo...tember-14-2021/

[dude]

If only Bishop could pitch to Bannon.

[Mike B]

It is really nice seeing Cowser filling up the stat sheet at Delmarva, the way he has been doing.  After the issues with 

Kjerstad, the Oriole organization needed Cowser to show up early.

 

The same can be said for Henderson.

[BaltBird 24]

Watching the Cowser HR with Delmarva, they were leading 18-3 and their opponent looked to have a position player pitching. Would he nice to see a little more power, but can't argue with hit tool.