138 replies to this topic

[RShack]

I can see that completely redefining for no valid reason what the word "ace" means is now part of Orioledom, so I will just STFU and let it be....

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Who really cares if some pitcher is an "ace"? For starters there is no solid definition of ace anyway.

 

But lets dissect what Means is really doing. Last 10 starts.

 

59 innings, 13 earned runs, 60Ks to 13 bbs, WHIP less than 0.9

 

So Matt is spot on. Means is way more than a #3 starter on a playoff contender. Find me a single team in baseball with a guy with 10 starts running that is better. He's a guy you want to hand the ball to every 5 days and have a strong expectation that you come away with a W. Call it what you want. I'll call that an ace.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Shack actually developed a stat to identify aces a few years ago.  It was basically a combination of preventing runs and going deep into games.  Means is really good at the first part, but may not go deep enough to be a true ace.

[Mike B]

Shack actually developed a stat to identify aces a few years ago.  It was basically a combination of preventing runs and going deep into games.  Means is really good at the first part, but may not go deep enough to be a true ace.

Very few pitchers are going deep into games, any more, but maybe the good ones that do are the legitimate aces.

i think in a few years the deep into games pitchers will be gone.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I am as a big of fan of starters going deep into games as there is. And that is probably a big stat for being considered an "ace." But its hard to argue with the success of Means regardless of what you want to call him.

[FL O's Fan]

Only time will tell as the peripherals don't scream Ace as the article states. Ace or not, as many have stated, Means is incredibly valuable and looks to have staying power. Solid FB for a lefty. Decent control. Great change up when he's on. And the breaking stuff is good enough to be an option. 

 

Comp I think of is Wei-Yin Chen, who was a massive part of our 2012-2014 run. If he maintains near that 3.65 career ERA and another starter or two emerges, this team could be more interesting, more quickly than we think. 

 

Now, interesting could just be flirting with .500. It would depend on how the rest of the roster develops beyond just Means and another starter or two. It could make sense to trade a John Means if there are some other holes in the roster. Not that I'm calling for that, but anyway you look at it, his development is a pleasant surprise for the rebuild. 

[Mackus]

Find me a single team in baseball with a guy with 10 starts running that is better. He's a guy you want to hand the ball to every 5 days and have a strong expectation that you come away with a W. Call it what you want. I'll call that an ace.

Means is 7th in ERA over that time frame.

Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, Jacob DeGrom, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Bauer, and Brandon Woodruff have lower ERAs. Means has more innings that Burnes and Musgrove but trail the others (I prorated for the guys with 9 starts to match Means' 10)

There are 21 guys with sub 2.50 ERAs over that time range. Some of those guys are aces. Some are decent guys having a good stretch. Some are mediocre guys pitching way over their heads. 10 starts tells you someone has been pitching well, but it's less than 1/3 of a season.

I think to be an ace you need a track record, which Means doesn't have. Hopefully he can continue pitching great and build that. I also think you need to be a bit better than Means has been so far in his career. These last 10 starts for Means are ace-level, better than ace level really, they are hot-stretch-from-an-ace level. He's had stretches like this before (first half of 2019), which is encouraging. He's also not been able to sustain those before (2nd half of 2019).

I'm convinced at this point he's a solid MLB starting pitcher, which is great. How good or great he eventually will be doesn't really matter until you're trying to win or until you've gotta decide if you pay him or keep him.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Reminds me so much of Bedard both stylistically and that, IIRC, Bedard also wasn't really on the prospect radar.

Kind of crazy that the best two starting pitchers the O's have developed the past 2 decades were guys who weren't even highly regarded.

[russsnyder]

Very few pitchers are going deep into games, any more, but maybe the good ones that do are the legitimate aces.
i think in a few years the deep into games pitchers will be gone.

Excellent point.

The definition of a quality start (6 IP 3 or less earned runs allowed) is indicative of this trend.

Also, Stoner is dead on when he stated that Means is the " Ace" of the Orioles staff. The guy is an excellent major league starter who may net a decent haul if he's traded or may anchor this staff for the next several years if he isn't.

[russsnyder]

Reminds me so much of Bedard both stylistically and that, IIRC, Bedard also wasn't really on the prospect radar.

Kind of crazy that the best two starting pitchers the O's have developed the past 2 decades were guys who weren't even highly regarded.

The other difference is that Bedard had the reputation for being a douche.

Means seems like a good guy.

[You Play to Win the Game]

The other difference is that Bedard had the reputation for being a douche.

Means seems like a good guy.

Very true. Much different there.

[Mackus]

Reminds me so much of Bedard both stylistically and that, IIRC, Bedard also wasn't really on the prospect radar.

Kind of crazy that the best two starting pitchers the O's have developed the past 2 decades were guys who weren't even highly regarded.

 

Bedard was a back-end top-100 guy before his surgery.

[Mike B]

I think being an Oriole fan, makes us all look for the flaws, because over the last 25 years we have had plenty of them.  What I think, is thyat John Means is the best starter we have had in a long while.  Since the last 6 or 7 games last year and so far this year, he has been excellent.  We can debate all we want whether he is an ace, but I think most will agree, that on a very bad team,  Means elevates that team when he gets the ball.

I would like to see Means, be the first Oriole extended.

[Mike B]

Reminds me so much of Bedard both stylistically and that, IIRC, Bedard also wasn't really on the prospect radar.

Kind of crazy that the best two starting pitchers the O's have developed the past 2 decades were guys who weren't even highly regarded.

Fair comparison.  Means is a lot more likeable than Eric though.  I actually see a lot of Andy Petitte, in Means.

[Mike B]

Excellent point.

The definition of a quality start (6 IP 3 or less earned runs allowed) is indicative of this trend.

Also, Stoner is dead on when he stated that Means is the " Ace" of the Orioles staff. The guy is an excellent major league starter who may net a decent haul if he's traded or may anchor this staff for the next several years if he isn't.

Well said.  Again, I feel like we will learn a lot about the franchise(ownership and the Elias Gang, at the trade deadline.

[BSLRoseKatz]

 

This is everyone who went at least 6.3 innings per start in 2019, how many aces do you see there, just based on that season's performance?

[Mackus]

I think the overall shorter outings is more about the quality of the bullpens than the lack of quality of the starters.

[bmore_ken]

 

This is everyone who went at least 6.3 innings per start in 2019, how many aces do you see there, just based on that season's performance?

Umm, I see several.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Umm, I see several.

Obviously, but are all of them? Figure it'd be worth exploring the value of reliably long outings vs. other parts of pitching. 

[Ravens2006]

He's the ace of this team. For now...