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BSL: John Means Is Already An Ace, If Not The Ace You’d Like


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#41 Mike B

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Posted 29 April 2021 - 09:37 AM

He's the ace of this team. For now...

He is running unopposed.  Call him what ever you want, but he is the best starter we have had in a good while.


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#42 hallas

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 01:08 AM

Well, if he keeps pitching like this, maybe he is an ace after all...
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#43 Mackus

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 06:14 AM


Well, if he keeps pitching like this, maybe he is an ace after all...

Yes, that's exactly how you become an ace, by pitching like one for a long time.

#44 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 09:08 AM

Yes, that's exactly how you become an ace, by pitching like one for a long time.

So how long does somebody have to pitch at "ace like' level before they are considered an ace?



#45 dude

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 10:26 AM

So how long does somebody have to pitch at "ace like' level before they are considered an ace?

 

It's more than 6 starts.  I think this is one of the funny things about this process is people want to act like there's a point you know something.  You aren't going to 'know something' after a start or a week or a month or even a full season.  You won't necessarily know something after 2 or even 3 seasons.  You can stare at it all you want, but it's not the reality of baseball.

 

The Mets signed Lindor 30 days ago and he's already getting booed in NY.  We believe he'll be fine because he has a track record that says he'll be fine....but he's built that over 6+ years, not 6+ starts or 6+ weeks.

 

Mullins has to be part of it now, right?  Mountcastle was hot last year in about the same sample and now he need 2 hits to get his OPS over .500 so far this year. 

 

Means worked his way into opportunity in 2019.  He understandably struggled some in 2020 but righted the ship and pitched really well towards the end.  He's been lights out so far and the eye test says it looks repeatable (as difficult as it is to be repeatable in MLB, see: Lindor, Machado)....but he hasn't put together one dominant season (SEASON.), let alone 2 or 3.

 

You eventually earn the label if you're that guy, but we don't need to ask the question after each start.  In the meantime, we should enjoy watching him pitch, because he's pretty good, and I'm sure Mets' fans will think the same thing.  But he'll likely get booed there at some point too. 



#46 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 10:31 AM

Dude

 

Can you ever just answer a simple question without writing a novel? Don't disagree with a thing you wrote. Except you didn't answer the actual question just say 'you eventually earn the label if you're that guy."  What is eventually? 30 starts? 60 starts? 2000 starts?



#47 dude

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 10:47 AM

Dude

 

Can you ever just answer a simple question without writing a novel? Don't disagree with a thing you wrote. Except you didn't answer the actual question just say 'you eventually earn the label if you're that guy."  What is eventually? 30 starts? 60 starts? 2000 starts?

 

What's sort of laughable is you think there's a number of starts that provides you that answer.

 

You don't want a long answer, but you ask a question that has a long answer. 

 

It's evidence over time and it's more than just statistical performance.  It's likely more than two seasons.



#48 BSLRoseKatz

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 11:03 AM

In terms of pitching well and pitching with longevity, the fact that he's allowing a .136/.208/.227 slashline from the 5th through 7th innings is pretty encouraging 

 

https://www.fangraph...geitems=50&pg=0


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#49 dude

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 11:41 AM

It feels like articles like this should take the time to explore the framework of what makes an Ace.  

 

Math, despite the protestations of some, has an answer.  The term ACE isn't math.  There's certainly some objective considerations for it, but the term is likely to invoke some subjectivity that you'll likely never get consensus on.  The fact that you can't get a large group of humans to agree on something shouldn't surprise us and it's not required for a merited conclusion.

 

So what makes an ACE?

 

You have one line of thought that suggests a guy is "the ACE of the staff", as if the only qualifications for an ACE are to be the best pitcher on a staff.  That seems ridiculous.  So....there's 30 ACEs and it changes based on the migration of pitchers from team to team?  You can't have more than two ACEs on a staff?  If there's no standards for consideration of the answer, we should stop using the term.

 

Is it purely a statistical hurdle?  If you are one of the top 30 pitchers in the League, does that make you an ACE?  So when you're a top 30 pitcher you are an ACE and if you fall outside of the top 30, you are no longer an ACE?  I use a different metric and the number of ACEs changes?  That seems untenable and similarly meaningless to 'best pitcher on the staff'.  If a guy wins Cy Young, he's therefore the best pitcher and he automatically qualifies?  What if he's terrible the next year, were we just kidding last year?

 

Today we like to stare at performance metrics and make assumptions about the expected result, not just the results.  So we sometimes see references like "he has ACE stuff" even if he's not producing results...that again, seems like something that we don't need to hold onto. 

 

We use the term ACE to share a level of excellence and I feel like the definition should reflect that.  I've worked in some areas where you get a little "I don't know, but I'll know it when I see it" and that's OK, but it's likely just as inconsistent as those that want to make a purely statistical argument.  Let's find ground where a lot of people are comfortable standing and build a position that is reflective of the expectations of excellence of the term. 

 

I'll break this up into pieces. 



#50 Mackus

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 11:52 AM


So how long does somebody have to pitch at "ace like' level before they are considered an ace?

2 years and 4 months and 1 week.

Less facetiously, it depends on the guy's physical profile (more highly touted, the easier it is to buy in), their performance profile (good minor league stats or come from nowhere), and exactly how dominant they pitch.

A middling prospect pitching to a 3.50 ERA is gonna have to do it for a real long time before anyone calls him an ace. But a former 1st rounder pitching for a year and a half at 2.50 is gonna get that label from many.

#51 dude

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 12:24 PM

Part 1:  Add

 

I would suggest there's a Leadership component to the term ACE.  The statistical wonks that dominant the current landscape won't like that because they have no idea how to put a definition on it. Too bad. If you want to be an ACE you need to add something to the team beyond just your performance.  In fact, we've seen many guys we may consider an  ACE that no longer have the statistical backdrop to merit the term (those days are behind them) but they still may carry the ACE label because of their ability to impact the team.  They add to the staff by making those around them better.  When you spend money on 'that guy', you want him impacting your team more than every 5 days.

 

We'll struggle to define it because we don't get to sit in the dugout and 'measure' the conversation that guy is having with another pitcher that just struggled through an inning.  Someone once said "Baseball is 90% mental and the other half is physical".  We laugh at that, but Yogi was probably right.  The mental part allows you to get to the physical tools. 

 

Movies are just movies, but one of my favorite scenes is this one from The Replacements.  When you find yourself in over year head, you may need a little help.  It's not just in game.  Maybe it's just a joke, a story, maybe it's technical but that's just as likely a cover to create a distraction, whatever.  You find a way to help the players around you get better.  That's Leadership.  You add to the team by adding to the staff and when you make the players around you better that supersedes your own performance. 

 

There's a piece there beyond the mental part too.  How do you prepare physically, your conduct, everything that creates opportunity for you to be the best player you can be.  Leadership.  In today's game, I'd suggest we're adding a component of analytics into the equation/definition.  At a team level, we're building Departments to translate emerging information into execution on the field.  Absorbing that process, which is changing over time, can be an important component of helping make the guys around you better.  You may have the experience and the paycheck, but if you're willing to evolve and apply, then certainly the other guys should follow your example.

 

There's more guys that check the 'veteranosity' box than would be considered "Aces" in the game, but the best statistical performer could actually be destructive (or at least not helpful) to the rest of the team (players, coaches, FO).

 

You want the ACE label? 

Add to the team through your leadership. 

Make the team better beyond just your statistical performance.   



#52 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 12:24 PM

If you can't define it then it isn't a thing.....Engineering 101.  :mrgreen:  



#53 The Epic

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 12:51 PM

So when we inevitably trade him away, will the other team be "seizing the Means of production"?


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#54 dude

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 01:01 PM

Part 2: Compete

 

This is certainly the part the everyone focuses on and reasonably so within the label.  You can add to the team without being an ACE, but if you want to be an ACE you have to perform too.  I'd suggest it's more than just your ERA or xFIP. You need to perform.

 

Excellence: You have to put up good numbers.  Whether you are top 10 or top 20 or whatever, you have to perform at a high level.  While not required, you are probably the best pitcher on the staff....but more likely one of the best pitchers in the League. We can debate what metric and what level, but you don't earn the performance label in one season.  It's seasonS of excellence at a high level.   

 

Durability: Another aspect of performance is your ability to log innings.  The standards for this have certainly changed over the decades so the expectations would be more by era than a specific number of innings pitched.  What used to be 300 is 200 today.....but you have to be able to take the ball.  Everyone gets nicked up.  I'm not saying pitch hurt, but you need to know that line and continue to perform to whatever that threshold is.  

 

Opportunity to win: A lot of people don't appreciate the Quality Start metric, but it does allow your team to compete every time out.  I'd maybe argue for a 'better' start reference like 7IP and 2ER in addition to the QS...maybe the "Improved Quality Start" so you get a QS% and an IQS%.  At the end of the day, logging quality (excellence) innings (durability) creates opportunity for your team to win and that impacts more than just your start.  Logging innings reduces the wear on a bullpen allowing managers to align things to maximize opportunity and (ultimately) wins on days beyond yours

 

Stopper:  Maybe another term that will lack a definition but it can apply in a number of ways.  Can you perform when your need to break your team's losing streak?...when the other team is on a roll? (we saw this with Means last Sunday)...or when you need some innings because of other conditions in recent games? (lot of recent bullpen use or an extended game).  Not only can you post, but can you perform when you run into those situations when your team needs something specific.

 

Playoffs: Certainly not every pitcher gets this opportunity and clearly some guys have impacted their 'status' based on Playoff performances, but again, it's some combination of the things above but on the elevated stages.  It can certainly earn impact the ACE label.  You can do everything, can you do everything when it matters the most.  

 

You want the ACE label?

Compete every start. Perform. 

Provide your team quality innings, especially when they matter the most.



#55 dude

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 01:21 PM

Part 3: Expectations.

 

Any number of guys can do the do the first 2 things, but does that automatically qualify the ACE label?  Some might argue yes, but I think there's an additional component to it.

 

Humans be crazy.  Expectations have an odd effect on the way we perform.  There's a component of reliability against an expectation that will ultimately separate the wheat from the chaff.  

 

When everyone knows you're good...after you get paid, when your team, your manager, your FO need you to go out there and produce, when other players understand you are trying to influence them, when the media shows up, when you are on that National stage, when you are on the cover of SI, when you win that Award...and the next one....when heavy burden of expectation is placed upon you, can you...

...can you isolate all of those things and consistently perform.  Can you still perform on the pedestal.

 

You want the ACE label?

Expectations create pressure. Can you Lead, can you Perform, with that pressure.

ACEs perform with the expectations (pressure) layered on them. 



#56 dude

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 01:35 PM

You want the ACE label?

 

Add to the team, the Organization, through your Leadership.  Make the people around you better.

Compete everyday.  Give your team the opportunity to win, especially when it matters the most.

Expectations create pressure.  Handle the mantle of expectations and continue to Lead and Perform

 

It's a label you earn but you don't earn it quickly.


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#57 The Epic

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 02:31 PM

So when we inevitably trade him away, will the other team be "seizing the Means of production"?

 

You know who should trade for him? The Reds. 



#58 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 02:37 PM

Clayton Kershaw has a career 179-78 record, ERA of 2.43, averages over 220 innings, about a 5 to 1 K/BB, and a WHIP barely over 1.

 

Yet his career playoff record is 13-12, ERA of 4.19. 

 

Certainly the fact that you face tougher opposition every game in the playoffs compared to the regular season impacts that.

 

So is he an Ace since his playoff performance is much less than his regular season performance?

 

I actually like the "improved quality start" as a pretty good and simple definition of an ace.



#59 dude

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 03:23 PM

Clayton Kershaw has a career 179-78 record, ERA of 2.43, averages over 220 innings, about a 5 to 1 K/BB, and a WHIP barely over 1.

 

Yet his career playoff record is 13-12, ERA of 4.19. 

 

Certainly the fact that you face tougher opposition every game in the playoffs compared to the regular season impacts that.

 

So is he an Ace since his playoff performance is much less than his regular season performance?

 

I actually like the "improved quality start" as a pretty good and simple definition of an ace.

 

So Kershaw is sort of the low-hanging fruit for this angle of the discussion because he's clearly been one of the most dominant pitchers of his era, but certainly hasn't dominated the Playoffs in the same way.

 

My thought would be that there isn't one bar to get over in every category.  This is more a "preponderance of the evidence" discussion and you make a case.

 

I make the perception argument all of the time and it applies here.  I think Kershaw's 'failures' in the post-season are a little over-blown.  He's certainly had some clunkers, but he's been there a lot.  While he doesn't have the same types of 'moments' (this was a category I meant to include under Compete) in the Playoffs (especially the WS) that Legends are sometime made, he has produced a lot of good or very good games on the Playoff stage.  Through the 2014 Postseason he was 1-5 with a some lesser performances which created something of a barrier where he needed significant moments to overcome.  It's hard to overcome those types of things but if you take the 2008-2014 numbers out from early in his career, he'd look more like something you're hoping for.

 

His career Playoff performance wouldn't stop me from calling him an ACE. 


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#60 hallas

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Posted 01 May 2021 - 09:09 PM

Clayton Kershaw has a career 179-78 record, ERA of 2.43, averages over 220 innings, about a 5 to 1 K/BB, and a WHIP barely over 1.

 

Yet his career playoff record is 13-12, ERA of 4.19. 

 

Certainly the fact that you face tougher opposition every game in the playoffs compared to the regular season impacts that.

 

So is he an Ace since his playoff performance is much less than his regular season performance?

 

I actually like the "improved quality start" as a pretty good and simple definition of an ace.

 

I think that if you win a Cy Young Award and are getting votes in other years you're unquestionably an ace no matter how badly you choke in the playoffs.

 

On the other hand if you a top-15-to-30-ish starter in the regular season and then throw 5 shutouts in the playoffs you probably could qualify as an ace as well.






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