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#61 Mackus

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 12:24 PM

Hard to argue with his logic regarding international. Zero contribution there for the Orioles.

Again I don't know how systems compare, but the words I've seen from Law on individual guys and our organization in general all seem accurate. Just the numbers in some cases seem really odd.

#62 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 12:27 PM

Sounds to me like he overrates international talent. Especially ones that get huge money, are teens, and havent done much of anything in pro baseball yet. To each his own.

#63 Mackus

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 12:28 PM

Look at the top 100 lists and all the young studs in the game. A significant portion of that is international. To have no part of that makes it really hard to compete in terms of team wide prospect lists with other teams that are aggressive there and always have been.
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#64 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 12:32 PM

We know the importance of international talent. Os are stepping it up there. I stand by my assertion that he overrates that talent based on signing bonuses and potential vs actual minor league accomplishments

#65 dude

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 02:46 PM

Tom C: The team hate accusations have been hilarious as usual. Take the Orioles fans – I looked it up, the team has made the playoffs 3 times this century. They have 6 total winning seasons. What have they been so happy about that they get mad because your assessment doesn’t match other reviews?


Keith Law: Also, the expectation that a team that has completely ignored international scouting – you know, where the best player in the NL came from, where the #1 and #3 prospects on my top 100 came from as well as the guys at 16 and 19 and 20 and 24 and 25 and 25 – for a decade, and that has zero international prospects of their own signing in their top 20, would have a top ten system is delusional

 

That might be one of the dumbest answers ever.

 

Every minor league system has - more or less - the same number of players in it.

 

System evaluation isn't an assessment of the country from which those ~250+ kids come from, it's the quality (tools, performance, projection) of those kids.

 

So if after the 2022 draft the Orioles have 8 guys (Rutschman, GRod, Hall, 1-5/'21, 1-low/'22, Hjerstad, Henderson and Westburg) in the top 100....they can't have the top system because none of them are from south of the US? 

 

Here's a similarily stupid thing to say..."hey, 65% of players with >4 WAR are over 6'1", therefore, since you aren't drafting enough taller players, I'm rating your system lower."  

 

I get that he has a bias, fine, it's just that bias renders his opinion delusional.

 

If you are grading a system on something other than quality, just let us know so we can dismiss the absurdity of your opinion.



#66 JeremyStrain

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 04:39 PM

Hard to argue with his logic regarding international. Zero contribution there for the Orioles.

Again I don't know how systems compare, but the words I've seen from Law on individual guys and our organization in general all seem accurate. Just the numbers in some cases seem really odd.


Makes sense. But where do you stand on it if say another one of the big ones comes in with Os around #8?

So far ESPN and BA have them inside the top 10 and Law at 18. I feel like if MLB comes out and puts them in the top 10 it really makes Law an outlier, even if like you said, the words make sense but the numbers don’t quite match up.
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#67 mweb08

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 06:03 PM

That might be one of the dumbest answers ever.

Every minor league system has - more or less - the same number of players in it.

System evaluation isn't an assessment of the country from which those ~250+ kids come from, it's the quality (tools, performance, projection) of those kids.

So if after the 2022 draft the Orioles have 8 guys (Rutschman, GRod, Hall, 1-5/'21, 1-low/'22, Hjerstad, Henderson and Westburg) in the top 100....they can't have the top system because none of them are from south of the US?

Here's a similarily stupid thing to say..."hey, 65% of players with >4 WAR are over 6'1", therefore, since you aren't drafting enough taller players, I'm rating your system lower."

I get that he has a bias, fine, it's just that bias renders his opinion delusional.

If you are grading a system on something other than quality, just let us know so we can dismiss the absurdity of your opinion.

He is grading it based on his perception of the quality. Then he is giving a reason for why the O's system isn't better. It's a valid, and quite frankly, incredibly obvious reason. That reason would even pertain to the franchise if given an elite grade on the farm system, because it would still be lesser than if they had legitimately invested internationally.

As for your statement that all farm systems have roughly the same number of players, well yes, that's true. However that further supports his point as it stands to reason that the top to bottom quality of those 250 or so players would be better if a significant talent pool was not largely ignored.

Teams have two primary methods to acquire prospects other than via trade: the draft and the international market. Teams also theoretically have equal opportunity on both fronts (obviously draft pick order and $ available changes year to year). So a team can crush the draft and subsequent development, but they're still putting themselves at a great disadvantage by leaving so much on the table in regards to the other major market for prospects.

That's all he's saying and he's right on that regardless of whether or not his assessment of the overall system is correct.

#68 mweb08

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 06:08 PM

Makes sense. But where do you stand on it if say another one of the big ones comes in with Os around #8?

So far ESPN and BA have them inside the top 10 and Law at 18. I feel like if MLB comes out and puts them in the top 10 it really makes Law an outlier, even if like you said, the words make sense but the numbers don’t quite match up.

Law likely will end up an outlier here, probably a significant one. However, I am not going to get upset about it as I don't think group think is particularly helpful. So it's good to get varying perspectives (I'm sure you agree) and if any stand out from the crowd, good, that's an opportunity to look at the matter (this or otherwise) through a new lens. Also, as Mackus has said, what Law has said has largely made sense to me, even though I don't pay a great deal of attention to prospect rankings.

#69 mweb08

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 06:12 PM

I think the evaluation of Mountcastle is fair, just the idea that he's not one of the top-100 guys (if eligible, which IMO he shouldn't be) is ludicrous considering what he's already done and how likely it is that a quarter or maybe even half of the top-100 guys won't ever do even that much.


When you say what he's already done, how heavily are you weighing last season?

I ask because while those 140 plate appearances were very encouraging, they were still just 140 PAs, and his overall minor league numbers are not overly impressive given his defensive profile.

That said, 2019 and the small sample from last year are surely reasons for optimism.

#70 Mackus

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 08:43 PM

When you say what he's already done, how heavily are you weighing last season?

I ask because while those 140 plate appearances were very encouraging, they were still just 140 PAs, and his overall minor league numbers are not overly impressive given his defensive profile.

That said, 2019 and the small sample from last year are surely reasons for optimism.

I'm saying a quarter or more of the top 100 won't get 140 PA for their careers. Or the pitching equivalent.

#71 JeremyStrain

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 09:24 PM

Law likely will end up an outlier here, probably a significant one. However, I am not going to get upset about it as I don't think group think is particularly helpful. So it's good to get varying perspectives (I'm sure you agree) and if any stand out from the crowd, good, that's an opportunity to look at the matter (this or otherwise) through a new lens. Also, as Mackus has said, what Law has said has largely made sense to me, even though I don't pay a great deal of attention to prospect rankings.


Yeah I don’t disagree with either of you. Just musing mostly. I’ve re read his thoughts a couple times and have nothing to say about his evaluations, that’s fair, but I feel like he might be punishing their rankings a bit to emphasize the international point. He’s not wrong and obviously they could be better if they had t been so ridiculous, but it sits kinda funny to me, even in his explanation today that he sounds like instead of rating it as it is, he’s holding what they didn’t do correctly in previous years against them. Does that make sense?

I don’t really disagree or have a huge problem, it’s one guys view and he sticks to his, no problem at all, it just struck me a little funny that’s he’s soooo down on a couple guys and is still blaming them for all the stuff the previous regime did wrong. Kinda like there’s a bias, but he legit can justify it.
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#72 mweb08

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 10:28 PM

I'm saying a quarter or more of the top 100 won't get 140 PA for their careers. Or the pitching equivalent.

Sure, but I don't think that's a significant consideration when ranking individual prospects. So if Law or whoever likes the profile of a 20 year old a lot better than Mountcastle, but admittedly realizes there's like a 30% chance that prospect hits some roadblocks, that doesn't mean he should be ranked lower than Mountcastle.

For instance, if DJ Stewart had his prospect eligibility going into last season or if we push it back another year, him already making it to the majors and having a little bit of success wouldn't hold much weight in prospect rankings, right?

#73 mweb08

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Posted 12 February 2021 - 10:37 PM

Yeah I don’t disagree with either of you. Just musing mostly. I’ve re read his thoughts a couple times and have nothing to say about his evaluations, that’s fair, but I feel like he might be punishing their rankings a bit to emphasize the international point. He’s not wrong and obviously they could be better if they had t been so ridiculous, but it sits kinda funny to me, even in his explanation today that he sounds like instead of rating it as it is, he’s holding what they didn’t do correctly in previous years against them. Does that make sense?

I don’t really disagree or have a huge problem, it’s one guys view and he sticks to his, no problem at all, it just struck me a little funny that’s he’s soooo down on a couple guys and is still blaming them for all the stuff the previous regime did wrong. Kinda like there’s a bias, but he legit can justify it.


Well what they didn't do correctly in the last few years has a big impact on the current minor league system.

Maybe he has a bias, I don't know (he was very positive about the Cobb trade), but my guess is he is just telling it like he sees it, and Orioles fan haven't liked that because it's generally been negative towards the O's. However, has he generally been wrong about the franchise? The collective we here at BSL and at the foxhole have been very critical of the franchise over the course of Law's career. So it kinda feels like the type of deal where we can pick on our brother or friend, but we get upset if an outsider does.

#74 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 February 2021 - 05:35 PM

FanGraphs: 2021 Top 100 Prospects



#75 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 21 February 2021 - 09:22 AM

FanGraphs: ZiPS 2021 Top 100 Prospects



#76 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 11 March 2021 - 09:42 AM

Really think this episode deserves some extra attention, Eric Longenhagen was a great guest with a lot of good insight.

https://m.youtube.co...h?v=zMcOlVzZchs

Btw, help us out and smash that subscribe button!
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#77 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 18 March 2021 - 03:16 PM

System ranked 5th overall by MLB Pipeline.

#78 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 31 March 2021 - 12:49 PM

Updated Baseball America Top 30

https://www.baseball...organizational/




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