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#21 dude

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Posted 18 January 2021 - 10:07 PM

Dude, I know you have a medley of thoughts about the Elias admin but are you assuming they'll be at reasonably successful with pitching prospect development? 

 

Not sure how much of a discussion you want to have on this, I'd like to respond more broadly to this question in the 4-seamers article on the main page.

 

The short answer is yes.  That's not really unique to Elias...and I can explain that more .


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#22 Mike B

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Posted 19 January 2021 - 10:02 AM

It will be interesting to see how (really all) minor league pitchers are handled this year after the innings dump from last year.  The development time certainly counts for something, but GRod was drafted in 2018 and only has 28 MiL starts for 113+ IP.....so he's wasn't stretched out at all coming into 2020 and then ....no competitive baseball.

 

There's some narrative we need to see him in Baltimore sooner than later and I'm not sure why....he doesn't even need to be on the 40-man for 2022.

 

I'm sure Aberdeen would love to have him for a handful of starts given the changes and that feels reasonable.  They're all starting late so 8-10 starts there, dominate then move up to AA for the rest of 2021.  They are likely going to manage his (most guys) innings this year....so if he got 20 starts and 100 IP, that would seem like a lot.

Given the fact that winning is not a priority, I think they will be cautious with all the pitching prospects.  I would assume GRod, Hall etc. will be capped somewhere around 100 innings.

it looks like minor league seasons will start late so that should work out fine.


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#23 dude

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Posted 19 January 2021 - 10:19 AM

Given the fact that winning is not a priority, I think they will be cautious with all the pitching prospects.  I would assume GRod, Hall etc. will be capped somewhere around 100 innings.

it looks like minor league seasons will start late so that should work out fine.

 

This isn't really this thread, but it will be interesting to see the impact of the lost 2020 season in terms of protecting guys arms. 

 

Under 'normal' conditions, nobody is willing to fall behind their peer group.  There's a process to get into the $$$ profile and nobody is sitting out on a guess.  ...but the 2020 season forced everyone to sit down.  One of the things Nolan Ryan credited his durability to was NOT throwing a lot of innings when he was younger.  Pitching is hard on your arm/shoulder (really your whole body, but...) and I'm confident there are some guys out there that wish they could just put everyone into workout-mode for a year and take some pitching stress out and let the body mature some without the meat-grinder of a season.

 

Well...we're going to get that.  ....and the rollout for this year will be slowed too, so guys like Hall and GRod - HS pitchers coming out of the 2017 and 2018 drafts (for all teams) - are going to have a very different innings profile than nearly all of their predecessors and they didn't have to to take the year+ off because of injury (like TJS).

 

We won't know for years, but it's something we can maybe track and see if there's any injury or performance improvements based on the forced load changes.  In the future, maybe you get a HS pitcher and he gets a 'workout year'. 



#24 Mike B

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Posted 19 January 2021 - 11:02 AM

This isn't really this thread, but it will be interesting to see the impact of the lost 2020 season in terms of protecting guys arms. 

 

Under 'normal' conditions, nobody is willing to fall behind their peer group.  There's a process to get into the $$$ profile and nobody is sitting out on a guess.  ...but the 2020 season forced everyone to sit down.  One of the things Nolan Ryan credited his durability to was NOT throwing a lot of innings when he was younger.  Pitching is hard on your arm/shoulder (really your whole body, but...) and I'm confident there are some guys out there that wish they could just put everyone into workout-mode for a year and take some pitching stress out and let the body mature some without the meat-grinder of a season.

 

Well...we're going to get that.  ....and the rollout for this year will be slowed too, so guys like Hall and GRod - HS pitchers coming out of the 2017 and 2018 drafts (for all teams) - are going to have a very different innings profile than nearly all of their predecessors and they didn't have to to take the year+ off because of injury (like TJS).

 

We won't know for years, but it's something we can maybe track and see if there's any injury or performance improvements based on the forced load changes.  In the future, maybe you get a HS pitcher and he gets a 'workout year'. 

I remember seeing an interview where Ryan mentioned lack of innings, early on, as being a good thing for the length of his career.  He also mentioned learning to take care of his body.  I think some young guys take being able to pitch for granted.  It is probably why so many burn out early.


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#25 BSLNickStevens

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Posted 19 January 2021 - 01:07 PM

Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg received consideration for Top 100 on Baseball America. 

 

https://www.baseball...prospects-list/


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#26 dude

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Posted 19 January 2021 - 01:32 PM

Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg received consideration for Top 100 on Baseball America. 

 

https://www.baseball...prospects-list/

 

I no longer subscribe (been a few years). 

Were they in the "next 10" category or in the "others receiving votes in top 150 lists" category.

 

I'm guessing the latter....



#27 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 21 January 2021 - 09:05 AM

Baseball Prospectus Top 101

2. Adley Rutschman
28. Ryan Mountcastle
30. Grayson Rodriguez
53. DL Hall
66. Heston Kjerstad

#28 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 08:20 AM

Keith Law:

6. Adley Rutschman
49. DL Hall
55. Grayson Rodriguez
85. Heston Kjerstad

I’ve noticed Law gets an immediate impression and has a hard time changing his mind. His whole top 100 list is interesting compared to others I’ve seen.
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#29 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 08:24 AM

Law:

 

6. Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore, Age: 23

The Orioles took Rutschman with the first overall pick in 2019, and he probably would be on the cusp of the majors if it weren’t for the pandemic. A switch-hitting catcher with power and incredible patience at the plate, Rutschman is also an advanced defensive catcher who earns raves for his work with pitchers and shows a plus arm, nailing 7 of 11 runners in pro ball after he signed. His right-handed swing can get long, but his left-handed swing is more compact, and he should be able to hit for both contact and power. If he hits for enough average, he’s going to be a frequent MVP candidate, and his power/defense combo gives him a floor as a solid regular.



#30 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 02:27 PM

MannyKay
1:15
Did Ryan Mountcastle graduate from prospect status or do you not like his profile much?
 
Keith Law
1:16
Still eligible. LF only with no real history of patience or plate discipline before 2020.


#31 BSLNickStevens

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 03:20 PM

Keith Law...lol


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#32 Mackus

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 03:25 PM

Mountcastle outside the top-100 is egregious.  Probably a third of the top-100 won't get as much MLB time in their careers as Mountcastle had last year.  Law's take on his ceiling being low due to his limitations is fair, but he's already reached the floor.  There is no downside that he's anything less than a passable DH.


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#33 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 28 January 2021 - 09:12 PM

MLB Pipeline

2. Adley Rutschman
27. Grayson Rodriguez
69. Heston Kjerstad
70. DL Hall
77. Ryan Mountcastle

#34 BSLZachSpedden

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Posted 29 January 2021 - 12:48 PM

MLB Pipeline

2. Adley Rutschman
27. Grayson Rodriguez
69. Heston Kjerstad
70. DL Hall
77. Ryan Mountcastle

 

Interesting to see Kjerstad ahead of Hall, albeit barely. Maybe they gave the edge to Kjerstad because of a sense that he has a higher floor?  



#35 BSLNickStevens

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Posted 29 January 2021 - 02:11 PM

I think Jim Callis and other national evaluators are (rightfully) much higher on Kjerstad than Orioles fans.

 

https://twitter.com/...183232757723150


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#36 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 29 January 2021 - 02:13 PM

I think Jim Callis and other national evaluators are (rightfully) much higher on Kjerstad than Orioles fans.

 

https://twitter.com/...183232757723150


Callis also spoke with us... 

https://forum.baltim...s-mlb-pipeline/


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#37 Nigel Tufnel

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Posted 10 February 2021 - 03:20 PM

Law rates the O's farm system 18th.

 

18. Baltimore

The Orioles’ new leadership didn’t benefit from trading major-league players for prospects, as most rebuilding GMs do, so their progress has been slower than Baltimore fans might want, but so far they’ve done fairly well with high draft picks and talent already in the system — although I wasn’t a huge fan of how they spread their money out in the 2020 draft. There was no international scouting department to speak of before Mike Elias took over as GM, and their efforts in Latin America still haven’t paid off — the only player in their top 20 who didn’t enter pro baseball via the draft was Yusniel Díaz, signed as a free agent by the Dodgers. They’ve been picking up lesser-known prospects on the sly for a year or so now, and at some point you would expect their R&D-informed player development work to boost some of those players’ stock.

 

MLB 2021 farm system rankings by Keith Law – The Athletic



#38 Mike B

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Posted 10 February 2021 - 03:29 PM

Law rates the O's farm system 18th.

 

 

MLB 2021 farm system rankings by Keith Law – The Athletic

Keith Law constantly jabs the Orioles.  While I agree that the Orioles did not maximize their trades, I think Law for some reason has an axe to grind with the Orioles.  Screw him.


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#39 JeremyStrain

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Posted 10 February 2021 - 03:36 PM

Keith Law constantly jabs the Orioles.  While I agree that the Orioles did not maximize their trades, I think Law for some reason has an axe to grind with the Orioles.  Screw him.


Normally I'd say, it's a personal opinion listing by analyst, so grain of salt and all, but he's SO far lower than everyone else I've seen I'd have to say there's gotta be some kinda bias playing in there. I just can't see how he'd be SO Much lower on almost every prospect we have objectively to bring it in a full 10 or more spots lower.


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#40 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 10 February 2021 - 03:44 PM

Law is a thin skinned little geek. Who cares what he says.




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