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Updated Prospect Lists


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#1 dude

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Posted 05 August 2020 - 11:35 AM

mlb.com updated top 100

 

Orioles notes.

 

Adley Rutschman moved up to #4 on the top 100, but he's probably really #2.  Luis Robert (#3) is getting everyday ABs right now and won't qualify shortly and Lux (#2) should have already lost his status.  Rays' SS Wander Franco still sits at #1.

 

Grayson Rodriguez bumped back to #40, just behind Emerson Hancock at #39.  GRod also fell just outside the top10 RHP with Hanccock getting the #10 spot.  Like Rutschman, he'll likely move up by the end the season in the top 5 or so as a number of guys on the list ahead of him lose their prospect eligibility.

 

Heston Kjerstad showed up on the mlb.com list at #68.  That feels a little better than the other list (BA?) that had him at 99.  Big group of the drafted OFers in that range.  Sort of the back of where I thought they'd go.  Seems some guys got some promotional love on this list where other guys didn't get it. Alex Krilloff is #35 on the updated list and listed as the #10 OFer, just for perspective.

 

DL Hall also bumped back a little at #77.  Like GRod, he got bumped off the top 10 LHP with Brailyn Marquez (CHC) sitting at #10 and #76 on the big list.  Should be a couple prospect graduates that will have Hall well into top 10 by the end of the year.

 

Mountcastle fell out of the top100 with 13 2020 draftees being added to the list.  Still listed as the #4 1B, although that's because they listed Tork at 3B....which gives him an overall bump on the 3B list versus the 1B list (likely intentional by DET)

 

New Orioles top 10

1. Rutschman

2. GRod

3. Kjerstad

4. Hall

5. Mountcastle

6. Henderson

7. Jordan Westburg

8. Diaz

9. Baumann

10. Kremer

 

other 2020 draftees

12. Hudson Haskin

17. Carter Baumler

19. Anthony Servideo

22. Coby Mayo


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#2 SportsGuy

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Posted 06 August 2020 - 07:12 PM

Really interesting to me that they have Kjerstad ahead of Hall.



#3 BSLChrisStoner

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Posted 06 August 2020 - 07:49 PM

BA

 

1) Adley

2) Rodriguez

3) Hall 

4) Kjerstad

5) Hays

6) Mountcastle

7) Diaz

8) Henderson

9) Harvey

10) Westburg

11) Akin

12) Baumann

13) Kremer

14) Lowther

15) Adam Hall

16) Wells

17) Rom

18) Mayo

19) Zimmermann

20) Servideo

21) McKenna

22) Stowers

23) Haskin

24) Watson

25) Sedlock

26) Fenter

27) Knight

28) Hanifee

29) Grenier

30) Hernaiz



#4 SportsGuy

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Posted 06 August 2020 - 08:34 PM

Baumler unquestionably should be in the top 30, especially over some of the names on that list.
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#5 dude

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Posted 22 August 2020 - 02:09 PM

Grayson Rodriguez bumped back to #40, just behind Emerson Hancock at #39.  GRod also fell just outside the top10 RHP with Hanccock getting the #10 spot.  Like Rutschman, he'll likely move up by the end the season in the top 5 or so as a number of guys on the list ahead of him lose their prospect eligibility.

 

Mize (DET), Peason (TOR), Patino (SD), Howard (PHI) and Sanchez (MIA) have now all been called up so they'll lose rookie status shortly.  

 

Whitley, Kopech, Sanchez and Manning will likely all lose their status before the All-Star break next year so that leaves GRod, Hancock and next year top picks like Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter filling up the top 4 in some order. 


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#6 dude

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Posted 23 August 2020 - 11:43 AM

Sixto Sanchez made his ML debut last night too.



#7 dude

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Posted 10 October 2020 - 11:58 AM

I'll throw this comment in here....

 

from Roch's blog on 10/8....Mountcastle, Akin and Kremer all retain their rookie status entering 2021.

 

Couple things....

 

1) I was wondering how they were going to handle this.  

 

A player shall be considered a rookie unless he has exceeded any of the following thresholds in a previous season (or seasons):

 

• 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues.
• 45 total days on an active Major League roster prior to Sept. 1, when clubs are allowed to expand their rosters from the 25-player limit to include any player on the 40-man roster.

 

From Sept. 1 through the end of the regular season, both at-bats and innings pitched count against rookie eligibility but days on a big league roster do not.

 

A player must have rookie eligibility to be considered for any MLB rookie awards -- such as the American League or National League Rookie of the Year Award -- or appear on any MLB Pipeline prospect lists.

 

Did they still follow the strict letter of the rule and not count Service days after 1 SEP?  The roster rules were dramatically changed (30, 28, 26) for this crazy season but most time was credited at 2.6 days per day with the adjusted games.

 

Regardless..the rule calls for At-Bats, not Plate Appearances...Mountcastle had 140 PA, but 126 AB....so he sneaks under by 4 AB.  All 3 of those guys break it with credited days, but not actual days or post SEP 1st days.

 

2) With good debuts and the certain expectation they'll start the 2021 season on the ML roster, I'd have to imagine all three, but specifically Mountcastle will be the favorite for 2021 AL RoY.  He'll get 160 games to make his case.

 

3) Provides some additional buoyancy to the Orioles MiL system ranking.  Mountcastle's performance will certainly push him back up into the top 100 in the next round of updates so the Orioles will have 5 guys in the top 100 including #2.



#8 dude

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Posted 10 October 2020 - 12:02 PM

Mize (DET), Pearson (TOR), Patino (SD), Howard (PHI) and Sanchez (MIA) have now all been called up so they'll lose rookie status shortly.  

 

Whitley, Kopech, Sanchez and Manning will likely all lose their status before the All-Star break next year so that leaves GRod, Hancock and next year top picks like Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter filling up the top 4 in some order. 

 

So update to this....apparently not, I guess.  Looks like most/many of these guys will maintain their rookie status for 2021.  We'll have to wait and see how all of the details fall out.  Crazy season.

 

Some of these guys didn't perform well at all and we'll see how it impacts their perception in the pre-season rankings.



#9 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 11 October 2020 - 07:59 AM

September days counted the same as August and July this year.

#10 dude

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Posted 11 October 2020 - 11:23 AM

September days counted the same as August and July this year.

 

I just think it's interesting that they pro-rated games, but not days.



#11 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 18 January 2021 - 10:10 AM

Baseball America Top 100

2. Adley Rutschman
22. Grayson Rodriguez
59. DL Hall
62. Heston Kjerstad
63. Ryan Mountcastle

https://www.baseball...-100-prospects/
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#12 BSLBobPhelan

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Posted 18 January 2021 - 10:15 AM

"With premium size, stuff and advanced command, Rodriguez is one of the few pitching prospects with true No. 1 starter potential."

https://twitter.com/...2045506561?s=21

#13 BSLZachSpedden

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Posted 18 January 2021 - 10:45 AM

Baseball America Top 100

2. Adley Rutschman
22. Grayson Rodriguez
59. DL Hall
62. Heston Kjerstad
63. Ryan Mountcastle

https://www.baseball...-100-prospects/

 

Mountcastle was not ranked in Baseball America's Top 100 before the 2020 season, and was 90th the year before. While it's just one outlet's opinion, I still think it's a sign that he showed considerable improvement last summer, especially with his plate approach. 


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#14 BSLNickStevens

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Posted 18 January 2021 - 10:46 AM

The hype surrounding Grayson Rodriguez is just beginning. MLB Pipeline recently called him the most underrated pitching prospect on their Top 100. 


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#15 dude

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Posted 18 January 2021 - 10:47 AM

It's interesting to see Mountcastle get ramped up there.  He's typically been in the 90s or just off the top 100, but ML performance and the exposure he's getting for RoY consideration certainly create some helium.

 

Hrestad is about where Diaz was when they acquired him.  He didn't get the instruction work last year but he needs to produce early to solidify his consideration in the top 100.


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#16 dude

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Posted 18 January 2021 - 10:51 AM

The hype surrounding Grayson Rodriguez is just beginning. MLB Pipeline recently called him the most underrated pitching prospect on their Top 100. 

 

He's been sort of at the back of the Top10 in RHP for mlb.com.

 

....but when I look at that list....I ask myself, "....would I trade him for [start looking at the guys in front of him]".....and I don't actually see a guy I'd rather have than GRod.

 

Maybe Mize.  I wouldn't trade him for Forrest Whitely and he's #3 on the list.


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#17 JeremyStrain

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Posted 18 January 2021 - 12:45 PM

The hype surrounding Grayson Rodriguez is just beginning. MLB Pipeline recently called him the most underrated pitching prospect on their Top 100. 


It's so funny to me that he's underrated. I feel like he just came in when a bunch of other talent was starting to develop, and when Means was breaking out at the major level, and people started looking more to go what is going on down there? Just getting overwhelmed with an influx of people all at the same time.


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#18 Mike B

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Posted 18 January 2021 - 04:15 PM

The hype surrounding Grayson Rodriguez is just beginning. MLB Pipeline recently called him the most underrated pitching prospect on their Top 100. 

I hope he starts at Bowie this year.  And I hope I can actually attend a game.  I am looking forward to seeing him and others.


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#19 dude

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Posted 18 January 2021 - 04:31 PM

I hope he starts at Bowie this year. 

 

It will be interesting to see how (really all) minor league pitchers are handled this year after the innings dump from last year.  The development time certainly counts for something, but GRod was drafted in 2018 and only has 28 MiL starts for 113+ IP.....so he's wasn't stretched out at all coming into 2020 and then ....no competitive baseball.

 

There's some narrative we need to see him in Baltimore sooner than later and I'm not sure why....he doesn't even need to be on the 40-man for 2022.

 

I'm sure Aberdeen would love to have him for a handful of starts given the changes and that feels reasonable.  They're all starting late so 8-10 starts there, dominate then move up to AA for the rest of 2021.  They are likely going to manage his (most guys) innings this year....so if he got 20 starts and 100 IP, that would seem like a lot.



#20 BSLJordanKatz

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Posted 18 January 2021 - 09:35 PM

Dude, I know you have a medley of thoughts about the Elias admin but are you assuming they'll be at reasonably successful with pitching prospect development? 






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