499 replies to this topic

[BobPhelan]

Fangraphs dropped Norby all the way down to 19th in the org. Horvath was down at 25. Etzel didnt even make the top 45. That seemed really weird to me. Granted just one list

Longenhagen has fallen off for me. Stretched too thin. Just some weird stuff lately.

[BaltBird 24]

Etzel not in the top 45 is crazy.

[RichardZ]

Longenhagen has fallen off for me. Stretched too thin. Just some weird stuff lately.

You’ll notice his pieces are co-written. I’m sure he had major input on the rankings but sounds like the co-author wrote the article. Norby at 19 is just dumb. Hey, they had Cowser at 12 last year and said Westburg was so bad defensively that he’d need a late inning defensive replacement. There’s still some good stuff but some takes are just loopy.

[RichardZ]

Etzel not in the top 45 is crazy.

I didn’t catch that. Completely bonkers.

[BobPhelan]

You’ll notice his pieces are co-written. I’m sure he had major input on the rankings but sounds like the co-author wrote the article. Norby at 19 is just dumb. Hey, they had Cowser at 12 last year and said Westburg was so bad defensively that he’d need a late inning defensive replacement. There’s still some good stuff but some takes are just loopy.

He was very low on Cowser due to his defense which turned out to be very wrong and I haven’t seen a retraction haha.

But he was super high on Leandro Arias from the jump and now I’m 100% with him on that.

[RichardZ]

He was very low on Cowser due to his defense which turned out to be very wrong and I haven’t seen a retraction haha.
But he was super high on Leandro Arias from the jump and now I’m 100% with him on that.

I don’t know. He said he had below average bat speed and then this “He’s begun to have a Luis Guillorme look to his build and handsy style of swinging.”

Luis Guillorme build? That is completely off the wall. Is it not?

[TwentyThirtyFive]

If Holliday and Mayo end up graduating, I wonder how far the system ranking will drop? Do we stay in the top 15??

[BSLChrisStoner]

If Holliday and Mayo end up graduating, I wonder how far the system ranking will drop? Do we stay in the top 15??

Maybe on reputation.

The system did what it was supposed to. Develop and graduate talent.

With those graduates, the remainder looks a bit thin.

Time for new names to emerge.

If you are like Bob, you've got 30-40 names which interest you.

I personally can't get interested in prospects until they crack the top 10-15 in the system and really start to show something production wise.

Watching the system now through after the draft next year and seeing what the Top 10 looks like then will be interesting to me.

[BaltBird 24]

We had an unbelievable amount of luck that Adley, Gunnar, Westburg, Cowser, Kjerstad, Holliday, Mayo, and even guys like Ortiz and Norby rocketed through the system with the success they had. Made us believe that the system could be stacked like that every year.

It's gonna look a little rough with just Basallo, Bradfield, Honeycutt.

A lot will depend on how you feel about the pitching in the lower minors.

[BobPhelan]

A lot more than 30-40 names in the minors that interest me. There will be a handful of pitchers and international guys that pop. Doesn’t really matter what the org rank is, we’ve proven to be able to develop major league players and the ability to find them through the draft and international market.

[BSLChrisStoner]

A lot more than 30-40 names in the minors that interest me. There will be a handful of pitchers and international guys that pop. Doesn’t really matter what the org rank is, we’ve proven to be able to develop major league players and the ability to find them through the draft and international market.

I think you do a great job following the org as a whole, and you clearly enjoy following all of the guys. 

For me, I just can't pretend to be interested until you've hit that Top 10-15 level, and are showing real consistency. 

There are guys below that level which are intriguing because they flash something, or you see this tool, and you can squint and envision them progressing and being something...   but I'm going to need those guys to move up the ranks with regular performance before I care. 

 

 

*That said, those guys are very vital to an organization overall.  Depth for other moves. Not everyone is going to be an immediate polished / near finished prospect. Development not linear.  A thriving organization will take several of those would be diamonds in the rough, and develop a couple.

[Mackus]

A lot more than 30-40 names in the minors that interest me. There will be a handful of pitchers and international guys that pop. Doesn’t really matter what the org rank is, we’ve proven to be able to develop major league players and the ability to find them through the draft and international market.

 

Draft, absolutely, including some MLB players from beyond the 1st and 2nd round where it gets really difficult.  But can we really say that they've proven anything internationally?  

 

Obviously optimistic given the results they've shown with development, I think the lack of results to date is mostly because of the longer timeline for 16 y/o kids compared to the 21 y/o college bats they've mostly been drafting.  But that still means there are no results to date.  Not just no MLB players, there really aren't a lot of upper level minors prospects yet.  None at Norfolk.  Basallo is at Bowie and probably close to a promotion and he's an obvious stud.  Nobody else is even at Bowie.

[BobPhelan]

Draft, absolutely, including some MLB players from beyond the 1st and 2nd round where it gets really difficult. But can we really say that they've proven anything internationally?

Obviously optimistic given the results they've shown with development, I think the lack of results to date is mostly because of the longer timeline for 16 y/o kids compared to the 21 y/o college bats they've mostly been drafting. But that still means there are no results to date. Not just no MLB players, there really aren't a lot of upper level minors prospects yet. None at Norfolk. Basallo is at Bowie and probably close to a promotion and he's an obvious stud. Nobody else is even at Bowie.

Bencosme started the season in AA and has been hot lately. He’s still a legit prospect, more of a bench/utility infielder or fringe starter upside. Aron Estrada, Luis De Leon, Edgar Portes have broken out as prospects. Very promising talents under them. No MLB talent as of yet but the international wheel is greased and moving smoothly at this point. Basallo will have a case for number one prospect in baseball in the spring.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Will Basallo finish the season in Norfolk?

[Mackus]

Will Basallo finish the season in Norfolk?

 

Think so.  He's only been ok at Bowie this year, at least compared to his demolishing of A and A+ last year, but think it makes sense to get him a taste of Norfolk late in the year.  He's started August hot, so especially likely if that keeps up.

 

Holliday moved up in early September last year.  Mayo moved up in mid-July.  Both had been much better at Bowie than Basallo has been, though.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Think so.  He's only been ok at Bowie this year, at least compared to his demolishing of A and A+ last year, but think it makes sense to get him a taste of Norfolk late in the year.  He's started August hot, so especially likely if that keeps up.

 

Holliday moved up in early September last year.  Mayo moved up in mid-July.  Both had been much better at Bowie than Basallo has been, though.

 

I see he turns 20 in just a few days. Maybe a promotion will be his gift.

[BobPhelan]

If a 129 wRC+ for a 19 year old in AA who is still learning the catcher position is just ok, our expectations are way too high.

[Mackus]

If a 129 wRC+ for a 19 year old in AA who is still learning the catcher position is just ok, our expectations are way too high.

 

The bar was #1 overall prospect in the sport.  I haven't tracked what any other contenders are doing, but Basallo's 810 OPS at 19 isn't as good of a platform year as Holliday in '23 (940 across 3 levels at 19 y/o) or Gunnar (940 across 2 levels at 20 y/o) in '22.  Probably comparable with Adley's 900 across 2 levels at 22 y/o in '21.  

 

I don't think many of us would've predicted "only" an 810 OPS for Basallo heading into the season or that an ~800 OPS season would propel him to #1 overall. Of course he's gotten hot in the last week so could improve upon that quite a bit over the final 5 weeks or so of AA and another week left in AAA.

[BobPhelan]

The bar was #1 overall prospect in the sport. I haven't tracked what any other contenders are doing, but Basallo's 810 OPS at 19 isn't as good of a platform year as Holliday in '23 (940 across 3 levels at 19 y/o) or Gunnar (940 across 2 levels at 20 y/o) in '22. Probably comparable with Adley's 900 across 2 levels at 22 y/o in '21.

I don't think many of us would've predicted "only" an 810 OPS for Basallo heading into the season or that an ~800 OPS season would propel him to #1 overall. Of course he's gotten hot in the last week so could improve upon that quite a bit over the final 5 weeks or so of AA and another week left in AAA.

He missed most of spring training with a stress reaction in his elbow. If you take out the first 8 days of the season he’s batting .292 with a .845 OPS and 139 wRC+. Walk rate and strikeout rate have steadily improved throughout the season. Just needs to tap into that raw power in games more. Wouldn’t claim he’s having a season on par with Gunnar or Holliday at this point but he was like a snowball rolling down hill last season and is trending that way again so I think he could still earn that #1.

Month to month:

April - .719
May - .790
June - .894
July - .688
August - 1.230

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Basallo has had a good year. Its what I was realistically hoping for him to do as a 19 yr old C at AA. Still a top what?? 10 guy? Top 15. All good.