519 replies to this topic

[BobPhelan]

The bar was #1 overall prospect in the sport. I haven't tracked what any other contenders are doing, but Basallo's 810 OPS at 19 isn't as good of a platform year as Holliday in '23 (940 across 3 levels at 19 y/o) or Gunnar (940 across 2 levels at 20 y/o) in '22. Probably comparable with Adley's 900 across 2 levels at 22 y/o in '21.

I don't think many of us would've predicted "only" an 810 OPS for Basallo heading into the season or that an ~800 OPS season would propel him to #1 overall. Of course he's gotten hot in the last week so could improve upon that quite a bit over the final 5 weeks or so of AA and another week left in AAA.

He missed most of spring training with a stress reaction in his elbow. If you take out the first 8 days of the season he’s batting .292 with a .845 OPS and 139 wRC+. Walk rate and strikeout rate have steadily improved throughout the season. Just needs to tap into that raw power in games more. Wouldn’t claim he’s having a season on par with Gunnar or Holliday at this point but he was like a snowball rolling down hill last season and is trending that way again so I think he could still earn that #1.

Month to month:

April - .719
May - .790
June - .894
July - .688
August - 1.230

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Basallo has had a good year. Its what I was realistically hoping for him to do as a 19 yr old C at AA. Still a top what?? 10 guy? Top 15. All good.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

My concern is the system as a whole. There doesnt feel like there is much talent at the top 2 levels. Beavers and Fabian both feel like 4th OF/AAA types. No real upside pitching at AA/AAA either.


I saw Phelan linked some sites top 250 prospects who havent debuted yet. Think the only had 4 guys maybe. Granted that doesnt include guys like Povich and McDermott. But I think Basallo and Bradfield were top 100. Then Honeycutt slotted in around 150. Then there was 1 other lower level guy who was in the 200 range.

[BSLChrisStoner]

My concern is the system as a whole. There doesnt feel like there is much talent at the top 2 levels. Beavers and Fabian both feel like 4th OF/AAA types. No real upside pitching at AA/AAA either.


I saw Phelan linked some sites top 250 prospects who havent debuted yet. Think the only had 4 guys maybe. Granted that doesnt include guys like Povich and McDermott. But I think Basallo and Bradfield were top 100. Then Honeycutt slotted in around 150. Then there was 1 other lower level guy who was in the 200 range.

You've graduated Henderson, Westburg, Rodriguez, Cowser, Kjerstad, Holliday, and Mayo since the beginning of '23. 

You know that.  The system obviously can't be as good. 

 

I see the same thing you do, but I'm mostly shrugging my shoulders. 
See what it looks like after the draft next year.

[BSLMikeLowe]

My concern is the system as a whole. There doesnt feel like there is much talent at the top 2 levels. Beavers and Fabian both feel like 4th OF/AAA types. No real upside pitching at AA/AAA either.


I saw Phelan linked some sites top 250 prospects who havent debuted yet. Think the only had 4 guys maybe. Granted that doesnt include guys like Povich and McDermott. But I think Basallo and Bradfield were top 100. Then Honeycutt slotted in around 150. Then there was 1 other lower level guy who was in the 200 range.

How many systems maintain a steady, uninterrupted flow of prospects to the major leagues? I’d guess it’s very few, if any. I’d expect it happens more in waves. If in 2-3 years we don’t see more promise in the upper minors, then I’ll wonder if they simply got really lucky or if there really was that big of a benefit to picking so early in the draft.

[JeremyStrain]

You guys can't look at prospects and think we have nothing if they aren't like borderline top 100.

 

Hence why I was pissy about the deadline cause they traded away like 7 of my favorite under the radar prospects. And by under the radar, I mean guys that aren't "mainstream" and top 100 ish, but are still good contributing players. Hell, you'd be surprised how many of the top 100 rankings just copy each other. That's why there are a couple that the rankings are VERY different. If you see a bunch where the rankings are all very similar, ask yourself what the odds are that different groups of people would see such a variety of players with almost the exact same list/order. That's why I'm never bothered when you see someone like Heston as like 15 on one list but 40 on another. That's probably what you should be seeing given the number of prospects and varying people looking at them.

[You Play to Win the Game]

You've graduated Henderson, Westburg, Rodriguez, Cowser, Kjerstad, Holliday, and Mayo since the beginning of '23.
You know that. The system obviously can't be as good.

I see the same thing you do, but I'm mostly shrugging my shoulders.
See what it looks like after the draft next year.

Where’s the room for them right now? We could barely squeeze in Mayo, and Kjerstad has been on the Norfolk shuttle.

I think the bigger gripe would be the collective return we’ve gotten for the collective prospects we’ve dealt. It’s been whelming. Burnes, notwithstanding.

That said, this is the thing we have absolutely zero reason to doubt Elias and crew on. They will restock. It’s what they do best (scouting and development). I also expect the international prospects to start popping up on lists more, I believe Phelan when he talks about the gains made there.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I dont expect to the system to be as amazing as its been the last 4 years or whatever. Its gonna drop off after the all of graduations. But are we looking at a huge drop off? Bottom 3rd in baseball?

[BaltBird 24]

System gonna be carried by the pitching at Bowie, Aberdeen, and Delmarva soon enough.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Where’s the room for them right now? We could barely squeeze in Mayo, and Kjerstad has been on the Norfolk shuttle.

 

 

Right now there isn't room for everyone.

In '25...  Santander is probably gone, and that opens up RF.  If he's not gone, than Kjerstad will be.

Cowser LF
Mayo 1st, with Mountcastle gone. 

Henderson SS

Holliday 2nd

Westburg 3rd

[JeremyStrain]

I dont expect to the system to be as amazing as its been the last 4 years or whatever. Its gonna drop off after the all of graduations. But are we looking at a huge drop off? Bottom 3rd in baseball?

I would have said like 10-15 range, but like I said, we dealt a LOT of my favorite next up guys, like Johnson, Horvath, Etzel, Chace etc. Having some contact issues down in Bowie. Hard to say because it's all so subjective, but with the chunk of depth they just dealt I'm expecting them to drop a bit. Contact seems to be a problem at all levels really. Pitching is kinda thin. Potential in the lower rungs, international stuff starting to show some life. Guys out with injuries that should be back next year will help some too.

[dude]

But are we looking at a huge drop off? Bottom 3rd in baseball?

 

Yes.

[makoman]

I could definitely be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I saw one of the bigger name guys (like Mayo, Callis, McDaniel, etc.) say recently that after Holliday and Mayo graduate they'd be around 15. Sorry I have no link and no recollection who it was or where it was, and again I could just be making that up in my mind, but I think I saw that, because I remember seeing it and saying, yeah, that makes sense.

 

But that's ok. We have Adley, Gunnar, Cowser, Westburg, Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, and only Adley is even arb1 next year. We don't need a ton of position player prospects at upper levels right now because we are mostly set for a couple years and can fill the gaps with mid tier FAs and be fine, or just keep guys like Ced and Mounty. They have shown they can develop hitting and they have some time to develop the next wave.

 

Pitching is a concern, for me, since they are less proven there and refuse to draft it high. Bob says there's a lot at lower levels, and I believe him, but they traded two of the bigger names so now they have to show something. 

[dude]

Pitching is a concern, for me, since they are less proven there and refuse to draft it high. Bob says there's a lot at lower levels, and I believe him, but they traded two of the bigger names so now they have to show something. 

 

Who has struck out more MLB hitters for the Orioles since start of 2019?

 

Chris Davis

or 

All Orioles pitching draft picks under Elias

[makoman]

I know you said for the Orioles, but at least Elias will always have Connor Gillispie as his first pitcher to the majors. 

[BaltBird 24]

I mean, he turned Joey Ortiz, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby (2021), and Darell Hernaiz from 2019 into Corbin Burnes, Cole Irvin (had some usefulness), and Trevor Rogers (TBD).

[BobPhelan]

I could definitely be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I saw one of the bigger name guys (like Mayo, Callis, McDaniel, etc.) say recently that after Holliday and Mayo graduate they'd be around 15. Sorry I have no link and no recollection who it was or where it was, and again I could just be making that up in my mind, but I think I saw that, because I remember seeing it and saying, yeah, that makes sense.

But that's ok. We have Adley, Gunnar, Cowser, Westburg, Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, and only Adley is even arb1 next year. We don't need a ton of position player prospects at upper levels right now because we are mostly set for a couple years and can fill the gaps with mid tier FAs and be fine, or just keep guys like Ced and Mounty. They have shown they can develop hitting and they have some time to develop the next wave.

Pitching is a concern, for me, since they are less proven there and refuse to draft it high. Bob says there's a lot at lower levels, and I believe him, but they traded two of the bigger names so now they have to show something.

Traded Baumeister, Seth Johnson, and Moises Chace but got back Patrick Reilly who is on par with those first two names to at least replenish a little.

[BobPhelan]

So not only did Keeler Morfe make the big jump from the DSL all the way to Delmarva at 18 years old and impress in his first outing (7 Ks in 3 IP) but he was in consideration for Kiley McDaniel's newest top 100. Short and skinny but a smooth delivery that reaches 100 mph already. Exciting development.

[BaltBird 24]

BBRef and MILB have him listed at 5'8 161.... I'd assume he's bigger than that now?

[BSLMikeLowe]

So he’s the next Tim Lincecum. Sweet.