Photo

Updated Prospect Lists


  • Please log in to reply
458 replies to this topic

#441 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 27,804 posts

Posted 08 August 2024 - 11:24 PM

My concern is the system as a whole. There doesnt feel like there is much talent at the top 2 levels. Beavers and Fabian both feel like 4th OF/AAA types. No real upside pitching at AA/AAA either.


I saw Phelan linked some sites top 250 prospects who havent debuted yet. Think the only had 4 guys maybe. Granted that doesnt include guys like Povich and McDermott. But I think Basallo and Bradfield were top 100. Then Honeycutt slotted in around 150. Then there was 1 other lower level guy who was in the 200 range.



#442 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 158,603 posts

Posted 09 August 2024 - 08:57 AM

My concern is the system as a whole. There doesnt feel like there is much talent at the top 2 levels. Beavers and Fabian both feel like 4th OF/AAA types. No real upside pitching at AA/AAA either.


I saw Phelan linked some sites top 250 prospects who havent debuted yet. Think the only had 4 guys maybe. Granted that doesnt include guys like Povich and McDermott. But I think Basallo and Bradfield were top 100. Then Honeycutt slotted in around 150. Then there was 1 other lower level guy who was in the 200 range.


You've graduated Henderson, Westburg, Rodriguez, Cowser, Kjerstad, Holliday, and Mayo since the beginning of '23. 

You know that.  The system obviously can't be as good. 

 

I see the same thing you do, but I'm mostly shrugging my shoulders. 
See what it looks like after the draft next year.



#443 BSLMikeLowe

BSLMikeLowe

    CFB Analyst

  • Moderators
  • 20,109 posts
  • LocationPortland, Oregon

Posted 09 August 2024 - 09:41 AM

My concern is the system as a whole. There doesnt feel like there is much talent at the top 2 levels. Beavers and Fabian both feel like 4th OF/AAA types. No real upside pitching at AA/AAA either.


I saw Phelan linked some sites top 250 prospects who havent debuted yet. Think the only had 4 guys maybe. Granted that doesnt include guys like Povich and McDermott. But I think Basallo and Bradfield were top 100. Then Honeycutt slotted in around 150. Then there was 1 other lower level guy who was in the 200 range.


How many systems maintain a steady, uninterrupted flow of prospects to the major leagues? I’d guess it’s very few, if any. I’d expect it happens more in waves. If in 2-3 years we don’t see more promise in the upper minors, then I’ll wonder if they simply got really lucky or if there really was that big of a benefit to picking so early in the draft.


  • BobPhelan likes this

#444 JeremyStrain

JeremyStrain

    Moderator

  • Moderators
  • 13,435 posts
  • LocationFormerly known as allstar1579

Posted 09 August 2024 - 09:42 AM

You guys can't look at prospects and think we have nothing if they aren't like borderline top 100.

 

Hence why I was pissy about the deadline cause they traded away like 7 of my favorite under the radar prospects. And by under the radar, I mean guys that aren't "mainstream" and top 100 ish, but are still good contributing players. Hell, you'd be surprised how many of the top 100 rankings just copy each other. That's why there are a couple that the rankings are VERY different. If you see a bunch where the rankings are all very similar, ask yourself what the odds are that different groups of people would see such a variety of players with almost the exact same list/order. That's why I'm never bothered when you see someone like Heston as like 15 on one list but 40 on another. That's probably what you should be seeing given the number of prospects and varying people looking at them.


  • You Play to Win the Game likes this
@JeremyMStrain

#445 You Play to Win the Game

You Play to Win the Game

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 61,703 posts
  • LocationMaryland

Posted 09 August 2024 - 09:44 AM


You've graduated Henderson, Westburg, Rodriguez, Cowser, Kjerstad, Holliday, and Mayo since the beginning of '23.
You know that. The system obviously can't be as good.

I see the same thing you do, but I'm mostly shrugging my shoulders.
See what it looks like after the draft next year.

Where’s the room for them right now? We could barely squeeze in Mayo, and Kjerstad has been on the Norfolk shuttle.

I think the bigger gripe would be the collective return we’ve gotten for the collective prospects we’ve dealt. It’s been whelming. Burnes, notwithstanding.

That said, this is the thing we have absolutely zero reason to doubt Elias and crew on. They will restock. It’s what they do best (scouting and development). I also expect the international prospects to start popping up on lists more, I believe Phelan when he talks about the gains made there.



#446 TwentyThirtyFive

TwentyThirtyFive

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 27,804 posts

Posted 09 August 2024 - 09:49 AM

I dont expect to the system to be as amazing as its been the last 4 years or whatever. Its gonna drop off after the all of graduations. But are we looking at a huge drop off? Bottom 3rd in baseball?

#447 BaltBird 24

BaltBird 24

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 25,045 posts

Posted 09 August 2024 - 10:06 AM

System gonna be carried by the pitching at Bowie, Aberdeen, and Delmarva soon enough.

#448 BSLChrisStoner

BSLChrisStoner

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 158,603 posts

Posted 09 August 2024 - 10:08 AM

Where’s the room for them right now? We could barely squeeze in Mayo, and Kjerstad has been on the Norfolk shuttle.

 

 

Right now there isn't room for everyone.

In '25...  Santander is probably gone, and that opens up RF.  If he's not gone, than Kjerstad will be.

Cowser LF
Mayo 1st, with Mountcastle gone. 

Henderson SS

Holliday 2nd

Westburg 3rd



#449 JeremyStrain

JeremyStrain

    Moderator

  • Moderators
  • 13,435 posts
  • LocationFormerly known as allstar1579

Posted 09 August 2024 - 11:20 AM

I dont expect to the system to be as amazing as its been the last 4 years or whatever. Its gonna drop off after the all of graduations. But are we looking at a huge drop off? Bottom 3rd in baseball?


I would have said like 10-15 range, but like I said, we dealt a LOT of my favorite next up guys, like Johnson, Horvath, Etzel, Chace etc. Having some contact issues down in Bowie. Hard to say because it's all so subjective, but with the chunk of depth they just dealt I'm expecting them to drop a bit. Contact seems to be a problem at all levels really. Pitching is kinda thin. Potential in the lower rungs, international stuff starting to show some life. Guys out with injuries that should be back next year will help some too.


@JeremyMStrain

#450 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,433 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 09 August 2024 - 03:55 PM

But are we looking at a huge drop off? Bottom 3rd in baseball?

 

Yes.



#451 makoman

makoman

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,856 posts

Posted 09 August 2024 - 04:39 PM

I could definitely be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I saw one of the bigger name guys (like Mayo, Callis, McDaniel, etc.) say recently that after Holliday and Mayo graduate they'd be around 15. Sorry I have no link and no recollection who it was or where it was, and again I could just be making that up in my mind, but I think I saw that, because I remember seeing it and saying, yeah, that makes sense.

 

But that's ok. We have Adley, Gunnar, Cowser, Westburg, Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, and only Adley is even arb1 next year. We don't need a ton of position player prospects at upper levels right now because we are mostly set for a couple years and can fill the gaps with mid tier FAs and be fine, or just keep guys like Ced and Mounty. They have shown they can develop hitting and they have some time to develop the next wave.

 

Pitching is a concern, for me, since they are less proven there and refuse to draft it high. Bob says there's a lot at lower levels, and I believe him, but they traded two of the bigger names so now they have to show something. 


  • BobPhelan likes this

#452 dude

dude

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,433 posts
  • LocationColumbus, GA

Posted 09 August 2024 - 05:04 PM

Pitching is a concern, for me, since they are less proven there and refuse to draft it high. Bob says there's a lot at lower levels, and I believe him, but they traded two of the bigger names so now they have to show something. 

 

Who has struck out more MLB hitters for the Orioles since start of 2019?

 

Chris Davis

or 

All Orioles pitching draft picks under Elias


  • makoman likes this

#453 makoman

makoman

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,856 posts

Posted 09 August 2024 - 05:41 PM

I know you said for the Orioles, but at least Elias will always have Connor Gillispie as his first pitcher to the majors. 


  • dude likes this

#454 BaltBird 24

BaltBird 24

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 25,045 posts

Posted 09 August 2024 - 05:45 PM

I mean, he turned Joey Ortiz, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby (2021), and Darell Hernaiz from 2019 into Corbin Burnes, Cole Irvin (had some usefulness), and Trevor Rogers (TBD).
  • BSLChrisStoner and makoman like this

#455 BobPhelan

BobPhelan

    OTV

  • Moderators
  • 15,094 posts
  • LocationBel Air, MD

Posted 09 August 2024 - 11:16 PM

I could definitely be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I saw one of the bigger name guys (like Mayo, Callis, McDaniel, etc.) say recently that after Holliday and Mayo graduate they'd be around 15. Sorry I have no link and no recollection who it was or where it was, and again I could just be making that up in my mind, but I think I saw that, because I remember seeing it and saying, yeah, that makes sense.

But that's ok. We have Adley, Gunnar, Cowser, Westburg, Holliday, Mayo, Kjerstad, and only Adley is even arb1 next year. We don't need a ton of position player prospects at upper levels right now because we are mostly set for a couple years and can fill the gaps with mid tier FAs and be fine, or just keep guys like Ced and Mounty. They have shown they can develop hitting and they have some time to develop the next wave.

Pitching is a concern, for me, since they are less proven there and refuse to draft it high. Bob says there's a lot at lower levels, and I believe him, but they traded two of the bigger names so now they have to show something.


Traded Baumeister, Seth Johnson, and Moises Chace but got back Patrick Reilly who is on par with those first two names to at least replenish a little.

#456 BobPhelan

BobPhelan

    OTV

  • Moderators
  • 15,094 posts
  • LocationBel Air, MD

Posted 14 August 2024 - 09:21 PM

So not only did Keeler Morfe make the big jump from the DSL all the way to Delmarva at 18 years old and impress in his first outing (7 Ks in 3 IP) but he was in consideration for Kiley McDaniel's newest top 100. Short and skinny but a smooth delivery that reaches 100 mph already. Exciting development.


  • mweb08 likes this

#457 BaltBird 24

BaltBird 24

    HOF

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 25,045 posts

Posted 14 August 2024 - 10:18 PM

BBRef and MILB have him listed at 5'8 161.... I'd assume he's bigger than that now?

#458 BSLMikeLowe

BSLMikeLowe

    CFB Analyst

  • Moderators
  • 20,109 posts
  • LocationPortland, Oregon

Posted 14 August 2024 - 10:52 PM

So he’s the next Tim Lincecum. Sweet.



#459 BobPhelan

BobPhelan

    OTV

  • Moderators
  • 15,094 posts
  • LocationBel Air, MD

Posted 15 August 2024 - 05:58 AM

BBRef and MILB have him listed at 5'8 161.... I'd assume he's bigger than that now?


Don’t think so haha not by much anyway.




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users


Our Sponsors


 width=