114 replies to this topic

[BobPhelan]

This kid is special. Top 100 before next season starts.

2-5 with a walk and his 4th homerun since being promoted tonight. Batting .295 with a .985 OPS.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Wonder how many guys we'll have in say a Top 250 prospect list. I just feel like we're building up quality depth. Guys who may never crack a top 100 list but could end up ML caliber players. You give Elias a bunch of assets it opens up how he can build a contending ML roster.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Do 4th round guys who haven't played above Low-A normally reach the top 100 that quickly? I don't doubt Mayo is playing well but it seems like you'd want to see competition against a higher level for someone in that draft spot. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Do 4th round guys who haven't played above Low-A normally reach the top 100 that quickly? I don't doubt Mayo is playing well but it seems like you'd want to see competition against a higher level for someone in that draft spot.

Im sure it depends on the evaluator. I think Mayo's name is getting around but Ill be surprised if he makes many, if any, 100 lists. Ultimately it doesnt matter much. Hes got helium and if he plays well at Aberdeen next year he'll potentially make a huge jump.

[BobPhelan]

Do 4th round guys who haven't played above Low-A normally reach the top 100 that quickly? I don't doubt Mayo is playing well but it seems like you'd want to see competition against a higher level for someone in that draft spot.

He was overslot and is performing at a level and has the tools of an early round talent.

[hallas]

Do 4th round guys who haven't played above Low-A normally reach the top 100 that quickly? I don't doubt Mayo is playing well but it seems like you'd want to see competition against a higher level for someone in that draft spot. 

 

I think it's a bit hard to gauge this because of the reworked levels combined with the minors being all out of wack due to COVID, but at19, he's about 2 and a half years younger than the average age of A, and he's raking. Machado was 18 and promoted from Delmarva to Frederick while hitting worse, and he was ranked 24 in 2011.  Given that Mayo's a year older, you probably knock down his projection a tad, but his performance is pretty hard to ignore.  If they do an end-of-season promotion to Aberdeen and he still rakes, I'd say he's a lock for top-50.  But even if they leave him I think he will make top-100 unless he falls off a cliff.

[BobPhelan]

Season ends a week from today so doubt we see anymore promotions at the lower levels.

[hallas]

Season ends a week from today so doubt we see anymore promotions at the lower levels.

 

yeah i didn't know when the season ends, guess that's not happening.

[BobPhelan]

AAA goes an extra two weeks so could see some guys get promoted from AA to get extra work in.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Is Bowie and Delmarva making the playoffs?

[BobPhelan]

Is Bowie and Delmarva making the playoffs?

Going to come down to the final week but I think Bowie will and Delmarva won’t.

[Greg Pappas]

Mayo has become all Elias could hope for. Elias controversially took Heston Kjerstad with the #2 overall pick in 2020, ahead of many other higher-rated prospects, in order to allocate some money towards high school talents, Mayo and RHP Carter Baumler , in the 4th and 5th round.  I was VERY upset with the Kjerstad pick, but will feel far better about Elias draft in Mayo becomes a stud.

[BobPhelan]

A: .311 (.963), 27 R, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 5 HR, 26 RBI, 16 BB, 5 SB

 

12.8% walk rate

20.8% strikeout rate

.236 ISO

159 wRC+

 

FCL: .329 (1.005), 20 R, 6 doubles, 4 HR, 15 RBI, 13 BB, 6 SB

 

14.3% walk rate

15.4% strikeout rate

.235 ISO

162 wRC+

[Mackus]

Probably the best minor league season outside of the top two studs.

 

I'll need to think on it some more, but he might be #4 for me overall in the system.  Would like to know more about his defense, if people are confident he can stick at 3B that is a lot more valuable than if he's destined for 1B.  

[BobPhelan]

Probably the best minor league season outside of the top two studs.

I'll need to think on it some more, but he might be #4 for me overall in the system. Would like to know more about his defense, if people are confident he can stick at 3B that is a lot more valuable than if he's destined for 1B.

He passes the eye test (unlike Mountcastle ever did) but still too early to tell if he will grow out of the position. He has a cannon for an arm so even if he does I would think he could stick in a corner outfield spot.

If he performs like this next season in high A as a 20 year old I’ll probably be right there with you. For now I have him at #9.

[RichardZ]

I don't know whether he'll be on any top 100 but he feels like a top 100 type of guy right now.    2 years younger than Cowser and I think pitchers were actually more fearful of Mayo in that lineup.   He's got the look.  He's got the numbers.   He's 19.    If he had been drafted 1:5 he'd be a cinch.   This is where draft position bias plays a part in rankings.    

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Probably the best minor league season outside of the top two studs.

I'll need to think on it some more, but he might be #4 for me overall in the system. Would like to know more about his defense, if people are confident he can stick at 3B that is a lot more valuable than if he's destined for 1B.

Love what Mayo has done and am excited but its a SSS. Westburg is a college bat but hed never played pro ball before and was very good over 3 levels. Henderson is 5 months older than Mayo and tore up DelMarva and was solid at Aberdeen. Stowers was great at Bowie. Definitely some better seasons on bigger sample size alone. Have to respect that. Now, where he is on a prospect list is a lot more subjective. Cant really argue if someone wants to have him in the Os top 5.

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: Sunday Notes

https://blogs.fangra...t-as-lightning/

[TwentyThirtyFive]

HR in his Aberdeen debut.

[BSLChrisStoner]

48 ab's, .833 OPS

 

4 bb's, 9 k's

 

12 games at 3rd.