95 replies to this topic

[SBTarheel]

Curt Blefary was his Grandfather. That's pretty cool. 

 

Apologies if this was mentioned, I just saw this and didn't read the thread, was excited to post. 

[BobPhelan]

Curt Blefary was his Grandfather. That's pretty cool.

Apologies if this was mentioned, I just saw this and didn't read the thread, was excited to post.

First I’m hearing of it. Very cool.

[Mike B]

Curt Blefary was his Grandfather. That's pretty cool. 

 

Apologies if this was mentioned, I just saw this and didn't read the thread, was excited to post. 

I had not seen that.  Clank was a hard nosed, driven player.  Hopefully there is some of Curt in the kid.

 

Curt was more of an offensive player, while this seems to be another pick where we like a kid's defensive skills and hope his bat can come along.

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: Eller on Servideo: “He’s got every tool you can think of”
https://www.masnspor...n-think-of.html

[SportsGuy]

https://twitter.com/...0670828545?s=21

[Mike B]

Pretty neat picture of Curt showing the WS ring to his grandson.  Curt was a favorite of mine when I was a kid, so will pull for the grandson to make it.

[dude]

Seems like another pretty easy kid to like. 

 

Hope he does great....but he isn't 2022 or 2023.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Seems like another pretty easy kid to like. 

 

Hope he does great....but he isn't 2022 or 2023.

I just totally fail to get or agree with this. Not saying you are wrong but the whole mindset. The guy is 21 years old. If he can't make it to the majors by 2023 then just what the hell is baseball doing? He has two full minor league seasons to get ready for the majors by 2023 by which time he'll be 24 for crying out loud.

[Mackus]

I just totally fail to get or agree with this. Not saying you are wrong but the whole mindset. The guy is 21 years old. If he can't make it to the majors by 2023 then just what the hell is baseball doing? He has two full minor league seasons to get ready for the majors by 2023 by which time he'll be 24 for crying out loud.

How fast do you think guys usually arrive? Especially draftees beyond the first round?

Arrive in 2023 would be really good development for Servideo, IMO. Trey Mancini is probably our best recent example of development from a guy picked outside the first. Drafted 2013 at Age 21. Debuted in Sept 2016 at Age 24.

Guys can break out and go faster, but 3 years is really quite typical for a college guy.

[dude]

Guys can break out and go faster, but 3 years is really quite typical for a college guy.

 

Right, but his point is that minor league development is over-rated and once a kid is drafted (and he's not even limiting it to college), that Talent is Talent and there's no value to the development processes inside the Game today.

[dude]

I just totally fail to get or agree with this. Not saying you are wrong but the whole mindset. The guy is 21 years old. If he can't make it to the majors by 2023 then just what the hell is baseball doing? He has two full minor league seasons to get ready for the majors by 2023 by which time he'll be 24 for crying out loud.

 

All of Baseball agrees with me.

 

I'm not one that is unfamiliar with the unique opinion/approach to doing something.  I had a meeting yesterday where we're trying to build the first real metrics and analyses in (I think everyone would consider) a pretty important area that is devoid of it and ruled largely by opinion and other inconsistent or limited analytic techniques.  That product isn't unique, I've got many of them and it doesn't even matter if I'm right or not, you don't get to win because of things that are completely out of your control.  So I get unique opinions, more than you will ever really understand.

 

...and just because everyone thinks one way, doesn't make it right either.  You see that playing out in different ways even on the National stage in real time today.

 

...but I don't think you have any real idea how to actually do what you want to do.  How do you pick which guys get to make the majors right now?  How would every team do that at the same time?  Who was the SS (actually 2) that the Orioles selected last year?  How are you going to share their short-term ML playing time?  What process are you going to use?

 

...I've said this to you before (but like all things, we can keep going doing it over), but you would never accept this type of a process in your own work.  If you showed up one morning and some kid just out of GA Tech had a 4.0 in Engineering and they were going to assign him your entire Division, you'd think that's ridiculous and absurd.  He lacks the real experience, he has no application skills yet, he's hasn't really had the difficult challenges that allow you (and other people at your level) to grow and learn.  What Leadership has he proven to merit that level of opportunity.  How many times would he have to fail for us to realize what a terrible idea this is.

 

Does that mean some kid couldn't take that opportunity and make it work?  Maybe, but why would you possibly want to use that process to find out when you have processes that have tremendously greater chances of success.

 

...and again, what do you think you could possibly gain by having Servideo be the starting SS in 2022? 

 

...and again, given that MLB is a pure meritocracy (for the most part) if there was anything to your position, you don't think someone would have tried it so they can be the smartest guy and make the most money and be the big winner?

[Nigel Tufnel]

Right, but his point is that minor league development is over-rated and once a kid is drafted (and he's not even limiting it to college), that Talent is Talent and there's no value to the development processes inside the Game today.

 

There might be something to that for pitchers (not that they need no development, but maybe it could be accelerated), but for hitters it's crazy talk.

[dude]

There might be something to that for pitchers (not that they need no development, but maybe it could be accelerated), but for hitters it's crazy talk.

 

...and that's where we have some kids make the quickest jump, right?  If you were a 2 pitch RP in college and you're acclimated to that workload and you never have to a see a guy twice in an outing, sure.

 

It could be the enticement some teams use for these 20k guys.  "We're going to advance you to your first ML outing in the bullpen and then we'll see if we send you down to stretch you out some as a starter."

 

We'll see how the Dodgers want to use someone like Beeter.  Could he advance to the bullpen as quickly as next year?  Maybe, if they wanted to.  But there's still no reason to do things like that.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Right, but his point is that minor league development is over-rated and once a kid is drafted (and he's not even limiting it to college), that Talent is Talent and there's no value to the development processes inside the Game today.

You are only partially correct. I specifically said this kid is 21 years old.

 

Now I will be explicit.

1. I believe baseball and its minor league system of development is way outdated and behind what every other sport is doing.

2. I believe that its way more important for HS kids than college kids.

 

Ya'll can disagree (and I am probably the only one on here who feels this way) and thats fine. But saying things like 'all of baseball agrees with me" is silly. Of course, all baseball agrees with this archaic approach. If they didn't then they would do things differently. But mark my words. With the cutting back of minor league teams you will see baseball start to figure out that they can develop these guys quicker than they do. And I'll wager a case of beer that this will start to happen in the next 5 years. 

[dude]

 With the cutting back of minor league teams you will see baseball start to figure out that they can develop these guys quicker than they do. 

 

There's zero value to a ML team to your proposition.  You have yet to articulate anything that brings a shred of merit to your argument....don't bet me why they'll do it, tell me why they'll do it.  How does it benefit a team?  Share your perspective on the cost-benefit analysis.

 

FTR, I'm against the reduction of MiL teams, if it were me, I'd look for more teams (not less) because I'd more opportunity (not even to make the Bigs, just to keep playing baseball.  My guess is that a decision like this is driven by analytical types that have a very narrow view (like translation to WAR) versus the MLB view that should be looking to expand the relevance of the game.

 

....but teams aren't looking for more players.  There's plenty of players.  Guys retire that don't want to.  Adam Jones went to Japan because there wasn't (I'd guess he'd use a word like 'respected') opportunity for him.  We don't have a player shortage that necessitates what you're suggesting.

 

MLB is a zero balance system.  For every guy that enters the system each year, through the draft, IFA, other (very minor) sources, someone else leaves the system.  You have X players in the ecosystem.  Y players enter, Z players leave (injury, other) Y = Z.  You still have X at the end of every year.

 

I have no idea why you think a 4th round player should be expected to make an immediate impact to the ML team.  You can always find guys that break the mold of a draft pick (I like doing that, it's fun to go see who the best players are drafted at #224 is....btw, I checked and #224 is a disaster, one player with a positive WAR, 1978 Tony Fossas, 2.5 WAR)...but go look at basically any draft position and those guys generally spend years in development and they still rarely make an impact.

 

....so you think Player Development is actually stunting the growth of a Player and the sooner they get to the highest level of competition, the sooner they can start making a difference?

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The sooner I can have a player ready (however anybody wants to define ready) then the more value that provides to the team.

 

Simple question. Which player provides the most value to the major league club?

 

Both players are equally ready (again however you want to define ready) for the majors. Player A is 23 and Player B is 25.  

[dude]

The sooner I can have a player ready (however anybody wants to define ready) then the more value that provides to the team.

 

This is not true and I'm not sure why you think it's true.

 

Players provide the exact same value to a team regardless of the age they start their ML service.  It's a 6+ year window, regardless of when you start that window.  You want a player as prepared as possible to contribute when he steps onto a ML field.

 

The answer to your question is neither (or either), assuming similar projections.

[SportsGuy]

This is not true and I'm not sure why you think it's true.
 
Players provide the exact same value to a team regardless of the age they start their ML service.  It's a 6+ year window, regardless of when you start that window.  You want a player as prepared as possible to contribute when he steps onto a ML field.
 
The answer to your question is neither (or either), assuming similar projections.

This is true except it does ignore age. Most players still peak around the same time and decline at the same time.

Having more of those peak years is important.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

This is true except it does ignore age. Most players still peak around the same time and decline at the same time.

Having more of those peak years is important.

This.  

[Nigel Tufnel]

This.  

 

Aren't the peak years ages 26-28?  If you bring a guy up at 21, you're losing control over 1 or 2 of those years.  So if you're going to do that, you need to make sure that he can contribute at age 21.