111 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

A guy I would be looking to get is CJ Abrams.

Top 5 SS prospect who could end up in CF as well.

Super fast.

6th overall pick in the draft a few years ago.

He doesn’t have a ton of MiL experience yet but the scouts love him.

The Padres has been trying to get rid of that Wil Myers contract.

After this season, he will be owed 46M.

An Abrams and Myers package is something I would do.

If they want to replace the Myers bat, you can send them Nunez in the deal although I tend to doubt that would work in the NL and with the presence of Hosmer at first.

So, it would probably be sending 2 prospects in the 15-25 range in the deal. Certainly any number of guys that you can argue in that range but guys like Hanifee and Greiner are who I’m talking about.

Of course, SD could just move him to CF or not worry about the saved money from Myers but I do know that’s a contract they were trying to move. I would inquire about that if I were Elias. Abrams May be too good of a prospect for them to move just to save money though.

But they have Tatis and Manny on the left side, have a good second baseman and have OF prospects, so the depth is there. My guess is they would keep Abrams and use the other players to get what they want.

But if we are going to use our financial flexibility to do something, this is what I would like to do..not grab a player who is a year or 2 away from leaving and isn’t going to help the team win long term.

[BobPhelan]

Don’t think the Padres are getting rid of Abrams less than a year after drafting him. But I agree he’s a great prospect and would love to have him.

[SportsGuy]

Don’t think the Padres are getting rid of Abrams less than a year after drafting him. But I agree he’s a great prospect and would love to have him.

Yea..I tend to agree.

I would be looking into this for the offseason but with a shorter year, I tend to think that makes it more unlikely they deal him.

I would think they would need to save money pretty badly to make the deal...which is possible but probably not super likely.

[SportsGuy]

And btw, obtaining him with so little MiL experience at such a young age is a gamble for the Os too. You are basically buying him for 45M and it’s very possible he turns into nothing.

It’s a gamble I would take if I were them but it’s definitely a gamble.

Also, I probably could be convinced to trade a higher ranked prospect in this deal if needs be.

[Mackus]

You guys think he's getting 30M per year?

I think he gets closer to $30M than $19.3M.

And I think he can get the contract you've proposed from 30 teams, including the timing of being able to be on the open market again.

The unique thing you've proposed is putting him with his brother. I think it strains credulity a little bit to suggest that playing with his brother is worth $6M+ a year for him, but it's possible. And if he does value it that much, I bet other teams would take on Kyle's contract AND offer more than $20M per year for Corey. That's a very low contract offer for him, IMO.

[dude]

A guy I would be looking to get is CJ Abrams

 

....

The Padres has been trying to get rid of that Wil Myers contract.   After this season, he will be owed 46M.

 

fwiw, I'd like to do something like that too.  Personally, I think something else has to happen before talking about stuff like that, but it's absolutely something they should be talking about.

 

I think you get CJ Abrams for the 41M (he's owed 41M, not 46M) pretty easily.  He's so far out and they have some projectable young players at his positions (Tatis, Trammell) I think they'd be excited to move him. 

 

I think you could use someone like Cobb as salary offset. After this season he's owed 30.5M with 20M of that deferred.

 

Let's look at 3 guys and money after the 2020 season.  LAA is a team that has shown some interest in saving money too (dumping a top5 prospect with Cozart/12M)

 

BAL: Cobb/30M

SD: Myers/41M

LAA: Upton/51M

 

Cobb is more useful to SD than Myers so the fit and the cost profiles are better.  Maybe they get back some pieces too.

 

Myers and Santander, who can both play RF/LF/1B would give the Angels more positional flexibility with the Pujols/Ohtani positional limitations and the Angels have a ton of OF depth (Trout forever, Adell, Marsh)

 

So....

SD gets Cobb, Kevin Maitan (from LAA), Zach Watson and Zach Pop

LAA get Myers, Drew Rom

BAL gets Upton, Jordyn Adams, CJ Abrams 

 

---------------

 

Upton is one of the variants in the other discussions.  Using Myers in Rob's example or Pollack in the Seager thought.

 

Upton is from Norfolk and will be 35 as a 2023 FA.  Offer him a 1/3M extension and turn 2/51 into 3/54 and flatten it at 18M/per.

 

Some push back on guys like Kemp or Upton here as 'middling, expensive vets that aren't part of the future'....but when they can help you to solidify (ok, not great) short term, but help deliver longer term solutions...you can do it, you don't have to rebuild to get there and it contributes to opportunity today and tomorrow.

 

2021-2023 OF...Upton, Hays, Bell

2024+ ...Adams, Abrams, Hays  (that could be a crazy, dynamic OF) 

[SportsGuy]

I think it’s pretty foolish to say they would move Abrams EASILY to save the money. I think it’s far more likely SD says no than they say yes.

[dude]

I think it’s pretty foolish to say they would move Abrams EASILY to save the money. I think it’s far more likely SD says no than they say yes.

 

I have a number of other comments, but let's agree it's an interesting opportunity that the Orioles aren't even considering.

[dude]

So, since he will definitely say no to this, what’s your next plan?

 

I would actually argue for this option before the other one, not because I prefer it (I like the Night Moves Plan) but the expanded deal could be a precursor to completing the other one.

 

There was some other comment on PIT and Cherington certainly isn't checking in with me, but the MLB environment promotes 'rebuilding' and while I certainly don't endorse it, the Pirates are likely headed there.

 

Regardless of how they got here, I'd guess Cherington would love to clear the books of the last admin.  The Nightmare is suspended (has to be permanently, right?).  The other 3 contracts of any significance is Archer, Bell and Polonco.

 

I posted this above and most seem to feel like they wouldn't do it.

 

PIT gets Mountcastle, Diaz, Baumann

BAL gets Bell, Archer, Kramer

 

The Pirates have to make some choices.  I wanted Newman last year when Cole appeared to be be the guy they'd more likely use.  Kramer used to be the projected 2B, now it's Frazier (same service as Alberto) and they have to figure out where ONeil Cruz/#3 is going to play.  Moran is just keeping 3B warm for Hayes/#2 (I saw a report that said he may be the best defensive player at any position in the minors).

 

So they kind of have the opposite profiles of the Orioles.  They have no upper level pitching after Keller/#1.

 

So let's expand the above trade and leverage depth both ways.  This is written post season but you could certainly make a stronger argument for sooner than later (just based on $$)

 

Orioles will take Polonco (1/11M + 3M b/o) and add a LHed pitching prospect (anyone but Hall)

Pirates add Cole Tucker, flip Frazier for Kramer and add Mason Martin

 

So the above trade looks like 

 

PIT gets Mountcastle, Diaz, Baumann, Akin*

BAL gets Bell, Archer, Polonco, Tucker, Frazier and Martin.

 

----------------------------

Before I complete the Orioles 'plan' thought, here what PIT looks like after the deal.

 

SS Newman

LF Reynolds

1B Mountcastle

2B    (Cruz)

RF Diaz

CF Bradley (maybe sign someone like this waiting to see what Swaggerty does)

3B Hayes

C

 

You have a number of ARB1 starters this year and would have 3 young guys (Keller, Baumann, Akin) at the back of the rotation so you can pick who stays and build other packages depending on what you want to do. 

 

Basically the books are cleared, you have no contracts you don't control the future of, you have decent-good projection players at every position but C (...Sisco?) and you can have modest competition and basically do whatever you want with super reasonable cost profiles.

------------------------

 

Back to Orioles...

 

Polonco gets flipped to LAA where the Orioles take back Upton (Jordyn Adams and cash - other ways to work this per the other discussion).

 

The Giants certainly want to move Longoria.  That hasn't work out for them.  Before you laugh, go look at his road-home splits the last 2 years.  for whatever reasons, he's OPSing .150-.200 points worse at home. 2018: .615 vs .767 and 2019: .658 vs .870.  Defensive metrics liked him OK in 2019 so he's generally been considered +.  We've seen pitchers really succeed in SF at home so that bodes the opposite for hitters...not everyone seems to get hurt, certainly looks like Longoria is.  He's likely an .800+ OPS 3B with decent defense.

 

You don't have to take the whole thing.  After this season (and again, easier to do now) he's owed 18.5/19.5/5 so if you were willing to take 9M per year, you let SF and TB (paying some to SF) take care of the rest.  I'd argue for reworking the deal into 3 years, but that's not important here.

 

You do those things, you again build a 3-year window...

 

CF Hays

SS Tucker

DH Mancini

RF Bell

3B Longoria

1B Davis

LF Upton

2B Frazier

C   

 

That's a good defensive team with a 3+ year profile that allows you some opportunity to compete and still build your minors for the 2023, 2024+ timeframes.  

 

You get a bump when Adley shows up and you are more or less in the exact same position in 2024 with what Matt is projecting in the article.

 

That team (we can go through the signings and stuff, but you create a condition where all of those sign on to be in Baltimore) is around 105M in 2021 and 2022 and actually projects lower in 2023 and much lower (nothing, all internal outside of Stroman) in 2024+, so there's plenty of head-space to be aggressive anywhere you want to be.

 

Compete, doesn't require rebuilding, cost controlled and you still develop the exact same opportunity for the future.

[SportsGuy]

Looks like an oft injured, overpaid lineup that will have several declining players.

None of that is all that appealing to me.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Tucker looks to be a guy with an OPS less than 700. But he is young

Bell should be good for a couple more years

Longoria is 34 and already declining

Upton is 32, declining, and overpaid

Frazier is 28 and doesn't seem to be any better than Alberto

Archer is ok but think he doesn't project well in OPACY especially since he's already 31

 

So no thanks. I do think that team MAY be somewhat more competitive than what the O's will field in 2021 but not enough to get me excited.

[Mackus]

dude I just wanna say that I always smile when I read "and <General Manager's name> isn't returning my phone calls" or the variants that you include in each long team-building post.

[dude]

Tucker looks to be a guy with an OPS less than 700. But he is young

Bell should be good for a couple more years

Longoria is 34 and already declining

Upton is 32, declining, and overpaid

Frazier is 28 and doesn't seem to be any better than Alberto

Archer is ok but think he doesn't project well in OPACY especially since he's already 31

 

I don't think that's even an average view of those players.  If you wanted to take a more positive outlook on those options (say Elias actually did that and you wanted to promote his actions), what would the above look like.  What is an 'average' view.  What does a positive view look like?

[SportsGuy]

I don't think that's even an average view of those players.  If you wanted to take a more positive outlook on those options (say Elias actually did that and you wanted to promote his actions), what would the above look like.  What is an 'average' view.  What does a positive view look like?

Is there a positive view?

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I don't think that's even an average view of those players.  If you wanted to take a more positive outlook on those options (say Elias actually did that and you wanted to promote his actions), what would the above look like.  What is an 'average' view.  What does a positive view look like?

So which general projection of those guys do you disagree with? 

Tucker has averaged under OPS over the last 3 seasons. I just stated the data.

Bell I said should be good.

Do you disagree Longoria is 34 and/or already declining. Again just look up his data.

Do you disagree Upton is declining and/or overpaid?

Do you see Frazier as something different than Alberto?

Archer - I said he's ok by do you disagree he's 31? Does his HR rate not bother you if he's pitching half his games in OPACY?

 

I think my view is an average take on them. If you see their data differently so be it.

[Mackus]

I think it's overwhelming likely that Frazier is better than Alberto.

Frazier has had 4 years of an over league average OPS (103 for career). Alberto was 98 last year. I firmly believe that last year was a career year that Alberto will never repeat, but even if it's not and he can produce like that again he's a solid notch or so worse at the dish than Frazier, IMO.

Rest of your takes I'm more or less cool with.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I think it's overwhelming likely that Frazier is better than Alberto.

Frazier has had 4 years of an over league average OPS (103 for career). Alberto was 98 last year. I firmly believe that last year was a career year that Alberto will never repeat, but even if it's not and he can produce like that again he's a solid notch or so worse at the dish than Frazier, IMO.

Ok maybe that's true. But does he make the O's much more competitive than Alberto? Big picture I don't see it.

[Mackus]

Ok maybe that's true. But does he make the O's much more competitive than Alberto? Big picture I don't see it.

No, he doesn't. Mike Trout wouldn't make the O's much more competitive than Alberto. Takes a village...

Was mainly just picking nits with the part I thought was off base.

[dude]

Ok maybe that's true. But does he make the O's much more competitive than Alberto? Big picture I don't see it.

 

I'll come back to answer the other player questions individually, but this is sort of the point that all of the discussion is centered around.

 

This article is supposed to highlight the culmination of the generic rebuilding process.  You get 1st draft picks, they are all all-stars then you sign super expensive FAs at the top of the market and you get to compete.

 

I don't have a specific issue with the team that Matt projects from a Talent perspective.  He doesn't tell us what year that is, he doesn't want to project some level of opportunity for that team and there's a better chance the Dodgers give the Orioles Corey Seager than the Orioles sign Bryant and Syndergaard, but that just means it's not realistic (everyone else like to throw that word around).

 

That team isn't some special projection and there's lots of risk with that or any team.   There's also upside. 

 

But the point of (at least my discussion) is that you can do reasonable things based on situations around MLB that can create the same (or even better opportunity)

 

Opportunity isn't based on a guys age.  Sometime you just need him to be a good player.  Because a player isn't 23 doesn't mean he's terrible.  The Matt wants to sign Bryant...that will take 8 years for the Orioles...that means you are buying him through age 37 at >30M per year.....but you can't pay Longoria (who has a great track record) 9M for those same middle years?

 

The only way the Oiroles are going to win anything is to put a good team on the field and play their asses off.  They weren't even that good of a team 2012-2016....but they played their asses off at times.  Improbable results.  The notion that the Orioles are going to create a superior talent team to every other team in the league seems more far fetched than anything I've ever said. 

 

It's funny how people have an expectation of a result that is absurd.  For example, Matt Kory is telling you in this article that this is a great (I guess, right?) team.  Is it?  Is there anything more special about that team than one you could realistically put together in 2021?

[dude]

So which general projection of those guys do you disagree with? 

Tucker has averaged under OPS over the last 3 seasons. I just stated the data.

 

So I'm curious what you're looking at with Cole Tucker.  He was the higher rated guy between him and Newman.  Newman put up an .800 OPS last year.  Tucker is a 6'3" switch hitting SS that has weighted some toward OBP in the minors.  He was at the back end of the top10 SS on mlb.com for several years (not a prospect now).  Tucker doesn't have 3 years in MLB and his MiL career is better than you are indicating.

 

He would be, by far, the best SS option the Orioles have for both current performance and future potential and unless you want to pay 12M (Simmons), 15M (Semien), 20+M (Seager) or 30+M (Lindor) for a SS, getting a productive kid with upside at the position as a backstop to whatever else you think you might want to do seems like a great option.

 

Bell I said should be good.

 

Bell plays this year at 27 and OPSed over .900 last year.  You said for a couple years (I'd say more than good)....plan to plan, Bell is taking the role that Bryant takes in the article...seems your approach is intentionally inconsistent.  And here's the thing, if Bell only qualifies as good, I'd like to know the type of player you're looking for.  Mookie Betts?  Francisco Lindor?  I'd like them too, I just don't see the Os dropping 400+M apiece for them.

 

Do you disagree Longoria is 34 and/or already declining. Again just look up his data.

 

I did and I already explained it.  Oracle Park is hurting him for whatever reasons.  Not sure if he was hurt in 2018 or some of the drop was change, but he bounced back offensively and defensively in 2019 bumping his defensive number back positive and OPSing .870 on the road (and it wasn't all Coors).

 

He's been a hammer in his career. He's familiar with the AL East.  I don't expect him to be the .850-.900 bat he was early in his career, but if he was a .750 guy or realistically a .800 guy away from Oracle, plays good defense....I'll take him in the village.  Again...do you think you are waiting 2 years to sign Kris Bryant?  You want to say he's old and declining....but what is your competitive option?  I guarantee I can get him.