111 replies to this topic

[MattKory]

BSL: The Next Orioles Playoff Roster

https://www.baltimor...playoff-roster/

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Nice writeup. I do think that Alberto at 2B and Nunez at 3B have shots to be on the next playoff team. They are very inexpensive and help enable a budget that can go after some of the names you suggest.

[dude]

BSL: The Next Orioles Playoff Roster

 

I don't think Matt has followed up on any of his previous articles with any discussion so I'm guessing that's not going to change here..

 

I do have some questions.

 

1) I'd like to know what contracts you're willing to extend to get guys like those.

 

2) I'd like to know what year you're actually talking about.  The discussion centers around the 2021 (Stroman, Semien) and 2022 (Syndergaard, Bryant) FA classes, but there's the projection that Torkleson is at 1B and the 2021 1st rd pick is in LF....I doubt that is 2022.  

 

3) I like to characterize "Playoff Opportunity" as some % chance....so I'd be interested to know what % you think you are describing with that type roster.

[dude]

Nice writeup. I do think that Alberto at 2B and Nunez at 3B have shots to be on the next playoff team. They are very inexpensive and help enable a budget that can go after some of the names you suggest.

 

Alberto was ARB1 this year so he only has 2 years of club controlled (ARB2&3) service remaining.  He is certainly someone you could sign into FA years but I'm not sure what you think "very inexpensive" looks like.

 

Nunez will qualify as a Super2 next year so he'll get 4 years of arbitration.  Reading what was written, I'm not sure how he would fit into that.  If Bryant is at 3B, Mountcastle at DH and Torlkeson at 1B I'm not sure what you'd be looking at as the fit.  He won't be 'very inexpensive' across arbitration. 

[dude]

Couple other thoughts.

 

As far as i can tell this is the first time someone around here has actually tried to describe what an Oriole Playoff team could look like.

 

I think it's instructive at a number of levels and will come back to it.

 

On the FA targets.

 

I get the feeling in some of the discussion that this is basically where people want to go 2 years from now.  "We'll sign Lindor and Bryant..." because they have the money.  My issue is that the Orioles have zero history for competing the larger competitive FA contracts.  There's more than one reason for that, most of them are self-inflicted, but I think it's irrational that the Orioles suddenly are willing and able to do something they've shown zero competency in. 

 

that said...

 

I think Stroman is a good target.  This goes back to the larger discussion on the rotation and I think you need more of an experienced guy that can at least consume some of the pressure inside of a competitive rotation.  He's a NY kid that's now pitching in NY.  He's been inconsistent enough that there's likely some debate across analytic teams in terms of risk/reward where, if he chooses (as a FA) to pitch somewhere outside of NY, then the Orioles could possibly be competitive in terms of dollars and years.

 

I put Syndergaard at 0%.  If he hits (projects) his potential, the Orioles aren't competitive for him. If he struggles some coming out of TJS, he's not undersigning some value multi-year deal.

 

I put Semien in the same box.  I've heard him on MLB Radio a fair amount recently where he's talked about his new-found success, but he's basically jumped his OPS from something just north of .700 (.673-.735) to .892.  That's a huge jump.  He's also developed his defensive game meaningfully so he's doing some things.  But he also has to prove he can sustain that, and that's no guarantee.  If he falls back some (or can't prove he can sustain it because of the limited season) I think it's especially hard for the Orioles to figure out an agreement.  If you go all in on him and give him something ridiculous, ok, but that's a big risk for a guy who, a year ago was OPSing .706.

 

I think the challenge with both these guys, for the Orioles, is that have risk/reward profiles that you either can't pay for or don't want to pay for, which makes it hard to both complete a deal and project them meaningfully into the future opportunity.

 

Bryant.  OK, but why is he signing with the Orioles?  Is there any compelling reason other than money?  His suitor base should include teams like LAD, PHI, DC, PHI, TEX, ATL and his agent is Boras.  I think any plan that requires the Orioles to sign a guy like Bryant is pretty much DOA.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Couple other thoughts.

 

As far as i can tell this is the first time someone around here has actually tried to describe what an Oriole Playoff team could look like.

 

I think it's instructive at a number of levels and will come back to it.

 

On the FA targets.

 

I get the feeling in some of the discussion that this is basically where people want to go 2 years from now.  "We'll sign Lindor and Bryant..." because they have the money.  My issue is that the Orioles have zero history for competing the larger competitive FA contracts.  There's more than one reason for that, most of them are self-inflicted, but I think it's irrational that the Orioles suddenly are willing and able to do something they've shown zero competency in. 

 

that said...

 

I think Stroman is a good target.  This goes back to the larger discussion on the rotation and I think you need more of an experienced guy that can at least consume some of the pressure inside of a competitive rotation.  He's a NY kid that's now pitching in NY.  He's been inconsistent enough that there's likely some debate across analytic teams in terms of risk/reward where, if he chooses (as a FA) to pitch somewhere outside of NY, then the Orioles could possibly be competitive in terms of dollars and years.

 

I put Syndergaard at 0%.  If he hits (projects) his potential, the Orioles aren't competitive for him. If he struggles some coming out of TJS, he's not undersigning some value multi-year.

 

I put Semien in the same box.  I've heard him on MLB Radio a fair amount recently where he's talked about his new-found success, but he's basically jumped his OPS from something just north of .700 (.673-.735) to .892.  That's a huge jump.  He's also developed his defensive game meaningfully so he's doing some things.  But he also has to prove he can sustain that, and that's no guarantee.  If he falls back some (or can't prove he can sustain it because of the limited season) I tihnk it's especially hard for the Orioles to figure out an agreement.  If you go all in on him and give him something ridiculous, ok, but that's a big risk for a guy who, a year ago was OPSing .706.

 

I think the challenge with both these guys, for the Orioles, is that have risk/reward profiles that you either can't pay for or don't want to pay for, which makes it hard to both complete a deal and project them meaningfully into the future opportunity.

 

Bryant.  OK, but why is he signing with the Orioles?  Is there any compelling reason other than money?  His suitor base should include teams like LAD, PHI, DC, PHI, TEX, ATL and his agent is Boras.  I think any plan that requires the Orioles to sign a guy like Bryant is pretty much DOA.

I could ask that same question for every single player you say the O's should sign.

[dude]

On the rotation...so we can talk about what "competitive" looks like, but I don't have any issues with a rotation that looks like....

Stroman
Grayson Rodriguez
DL Hall
Means/Akin/Lowther/Zimmerman/Pop
Kremer/Baumann/Hanifee

I think that's more viable 2023 than 2022, but others think it could be 2022.

I'd be totally good to avoiding Syndergaard and using an internal option. That TOR view of Noah feels like a pre-2017 view. In 2017 he only had 7 starts. In 2018 he had 25. Last year he started his most games (32) but also had his worst performance (ERA+: 97). I get that it's easy to dream on the stuff...and someone will, it just wouldn't be me, especially for what it would take to get him here.

[dude]

I could ask that same question for every single player you say the O's should sign.

 

Funny at several levels.  

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Funny at several levels.  

Typical non response. But I will remember this and in the future when you come up with one of your target rosters we'll bring up this same point. 

[Mike B]

Nice writeup. I do think that Alberto at 2B and Nunez at 3B have shots to be on the next playoff team. They are very inexpensive and help enable a budget that can go after some of the names you suggest.

I think this year, if there is one will define both Nunez and Alberto.  I am anxious to see if Alberto can fill the second base job.  If he does well this year, I think with a proper and reasonable extension, he could be part of better Oriole days.

Nunez, is harder for me to place on a contending Oriole team.  I think if his abt continues to improve, he may well price himself out of the Oriole comfort zone.  His ticket to an Oriole future may rest in how well he can man 3rd base.  A good team can not have a defensive liability at 3rd base.

[dude]

Typical non response. But I will remember this and in the future when you come up with one of your target rosters we'll bring up this same point. 

 

Steve, you apparently can't remember anything else wrt to what I've written...why would you remember this?

 

1) I would rarely pursue major FAs.  There's 2-3 reasons for that which I've shared in the past.  Happy to do it again, of course, I'd think you'd remember them.

 

2) When has anyone accused me of not sharing enough justification? 

 

I had some more response in there, but I'm going to leave it alone. 

I don't believe I've ever let a comment or challenge to my opinion go unanswered, so if you think you have one, let me know.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Steve, you apparently can't remember anything else wrt to what I've written...why would you remember this?

 

1) I would rarely pursue major FAs.  There's 2-3 reasons for that which I've shared in the past.  Happy to do it again, of course, I'd think you'd remember them.

 

2) When has anyone accused me of not sharing enough justification? 

 

I had some more response in there, but I'm going to leave it alone. 

I don't believe I've ever let a comment or challenge to my opinion go unanswered, so if you think you have one, let me know.

You can ask the question you did with regards to any FA. Major or minor. Perhaps you can justify an answer more easily depending on the player in question. But the simple fact remains, that historically the last 20 years there has been little to draw FA's to the O's.

 

As to providing justification, that is clearly where you are open. While your justifications, IMO, are typically flawed you DO at least provide a basis for your thoughts. 

[Mike B]

You can ask the question you did with regards to any FA. Major or minor. Perhaps you can justify an answer more easily depending on the player in question. But the simple fact remains, that historically the last 20 years there has been little to draw FA's to the O's.

 

As to providing justification, that is clearly where you are open. While your justifications, IMO, are typically flawed you DO at least provide a basis for your thoughts. 

With exception of the 5 years where we were in contention, the only way the Orioles were getting a good free agent way by over paying.

[dude]

You can ask the question you did with regards to any FA. Major or minor. Perhaps you can justify an answer more easily depending on the player in question. But the simple fact remains, that historically the last 20 years there has been little to draw FA's to the O's.

 

As to providing justification, that is clearly where you are open. While your justifications, IMO, are typically flawed you DO at least provide a basis for your thoughts. 

With exception of the 5 years where we were in contention, the only way the Orioles were getting a good free agent way by over paying.

 

I'd like to add something to these comments.  You know where the Orioles have had some success signing guys?

 

Guys that have spent some time here.  Bordick, Markakis, Roberts, Jones, Hardy, Davis.  There's other guys that have wanted to stay even if the Orioles didn't bite.  We can discuss why, but there's something there.  They've had a difficult time leveraging the value (for lack of a better word) externally, but internally, guys - in general - like to stay here.

 

The Cardinals trade for guys, sell them from the inside and then leverage the environment to work extensions.  That would specifically and exactly be my approach.

 

Let's consider 2 guys.   Bryant who Matt brings up in this article and Josh Bell who I've talked about for 3+ years now.

 

If you wait for Bryant to become a FA (Matt above) then you are giving up a compensation pick and you have to compete to complete a contract within the din of other significant teams who have all shown more chops for delivering big fish.  I'll say someone offers Bryant at least 7/225, if the Orioles even get a shot at the contract (assuming a better location doesn't go higher) then you are looking at, probably at least 8/270.  Anyone interested in that?

 

I'd guess the Orioles (if they wanted to) could trade for a guy like Josh Bell.  He's not a 1B (I believe he again ranked very last in imperfect defensive metrics, again).  I'd put him back in RF where he started. Also (like Bryant) a Boras client, but I'd give the Orioles a much better chance to sign Bell's profile into FA years.

 

In terms of lineup impact, I'd put them both in the same category.....but can get Bell now, work on the extension and even if you have to wait to FA to work the deal, You'd be in a much stronger position (where my money might be the baseline and others have to commit the +1yr, +3M to take out an Oriole (even modest preference).

[dude]

Let me add another one.  For whatever reason Rob chooses to misrepresent this (and has many times) but the 'brothers' thing has nothing to do with why the Dodgers trade Corey Seager.  It could have everything to do with why Corey Seager would agree to discuss an extension as part of a deal.  You can create incentives inside of a deal.

 

Not a secret, I think winning is more than Talent.  I hate the bribery aspect of a FA contract because I think if that's the reason the guy decides to play for you, then he may not actually want to play for you, and you'll find that out as soon as the ink dries.  I want to create reasons for players to excel inside of the deals that they sign to play in Baltimore (that wouldn't be unique to Baltimore that would be my strategy anywhere).  If the only reason a guy signs with you is money, he may not be who you need him to be.

 

Kyle Seager is easy to get but I think he has a reasonable profile (performance) and there could some interesting incentive for Corey to join him and play together for a couple of years.  Maybe I'm wrong and they hate each other and the last thing in the world they'd want to do is play on the same side of the infield together on the east coast (they're from NC)....but if you had to bet $1000 and put it on pro, neutral or negative, anyone not putting it on pro?

 

You still have to do something inside of the trade, but it's easier to create value for each of the teams involved if there's incentive for extension inside of the deal.

 

btw, they are on the same FA timeline, so you could certainly work that angle in FA too....but if that's good enough to be part of "The Next Oriole Playoff team" in 2022....why wouldn't it have been good enough in 2018, 2019, 2020 or 2021?

[dude]

So in the spirit of "The Next Orioles Playoff Team"....why not....for 2021

trade for Bell and Archer (we can discuss) and work an extension with an opt out after the 2023 season.
trade for Seager and Seager (we can discuss) same as above for Corey and Kyle gets 2 years.
Pollack (I have so many versions of this, but here he's included in the Seager trade)
sign Stroman
Kemp is no-where to be found.

LF Pollack
SS Seager
DH Mancini
RF Bell
3B Seager
CF Hays
1B Davis
C (waiting on Rutschman)
2B (waiting on Hall)

SP
Stroman
Archer (bridge to GRod)
Means
Kremer
TBD (bridge to Hall)

Whatever level of opportunity you think Matt's article accomplishes, that lineup is similar, you can do it in 2021 for something under 125M (there's room to make some bullpen or bench changes) and is more realistic than the expectations (signing and development) of what he presented.

Also, the base of the plan doesn't require any early picks. I like Adley and you take him when you have the chance, but it's never dependent on continued losing to try and create opportunity.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Ok I'll bite.

 

Why would Stroman want to sign here?

 

Trade whom for Seager and Seager and Pollack?

 

Trade whom for Bell?

 

Trade whom for Archer?

 

Not a bad lineup but I don't see how that could happen. I don't think we have anywhere near the chips to make those moves.

[Mackus]

dude I respect that you have a plan but it'd be a lot easier to discuss the basic fundamental ideas of your plan if you took out silly stuff that serves no purpose.  Why would you give Kyle Seager a 2-year extension?  

 

It's such a small and pointless part of your plan, but it's all anyone will be able to discuss (or maybe this is just my character flaw...) because it's so outlandishly bad of an idea.  I don't know the details of your plan, but it cannot possibly hinge on that extension getting done.  

[SportsGuy]

Ok I'll bite.

Why would Stroman want to sign here?

Trade whom for Seager and Seager and Pollack?

Trade whom for Bell?

Trade whom for Archer?

Not a bad lineup but I don't see how that could happen. I don't think we have anywhere near the chips to make those moves.

We have the chips to make the moves.

The question is, do you want to do it and at what cost comes from getting these guys?

Dude routinely leaves out those details but those details are very important.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

We have the chips to make the moves.

The question is, do you want to do it and at what cost comes from getting these guys?

Dude routinely leaves out those details but those details are very important.

Ain't buying that we have the chips to trade for all those guys. I'd like to see some legit proposals.