111 replies to this topic

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Dude you just totally glossed over the point where I disagreed with you.

 

I said I think Matt's lineup is more achievable than yours because your's involves a lot of trades and a team has less control over that than they do with FA signings. Sure you have at some point an upper limit but if you want to overpay, with no salary cap, you are "free" to do so. It costs you in tax but you can spend as much as you want. Ownership has 100% control over that. 

[dude]

Dude you just totally glossed over the point where I disagreed with you.

 

I said I think Matt's lineup is more achievable than yours because your's involves a lot of trades and a team has less control over that than they do with FA signings. Sure you have at some point an upper limit but if you want to overpay, with no salary cap, you are "free" to do so. It costs you in tax but you can spend as much as you want. Ownership has 100% control over that. 

 

I just hadn't come back to it yet.  

 

There's certainly an element of truth in FA versus trade in general.  There are some dramatic differences though.  When you trade, you are generally dealing with the team.  When you sign a FA, you have to deal with interests of a bunch of teams and you lack any control of the timing unless you want to be absurdly stupid.

 

There's also all of the trades where "Yankees get Degrom" or whatever.  Opportunity really comes down to cost of availability.

 

Basically I proposed 3 trades.

 

SF: Longoria and cash for [something outside the top30]

 

PIT: Bell, Archer, Polonco, Frazier, Tucker, Martin for Mountcastle, Diaz, Baumann and Akin.

 

LAA: Upton, cash and Adams for Santander and Polonco

 

I'd be curious why you wouldn't think there'd be significant opportunity to complete those type trades.  I'd actually argue that all of them favor the other team more than the Orioles.  Several of you indicated you didn't like them for the Orioles.....but we've already walked through how they give you some opportunity now and don't (necessarily) negatively impact the future. 

 

There'd be even more opportunity to do them sooner (in 2020 versus upcoming offseason) just because they are all tied to cost risk (and there's a lot of revenue challenges/uncertainty going on today)

[dude]

Then there's things like Stroman's signing.  

 

In the spreadsheet, I allowed Matt to sign him for the same 5/80 that I did although I think the opportunity to sign him as an Oriole would be a significant challenge if there aren't other compelling reasons to come to Baltimore.

 

If you just want to bribe him to come here...how far do you go?  Do you think he takes a straight 5/80 to come to a poor Oriole team? Would you go 6/125 as a bribe?

 

Under my plan, I already traded for one of his 'boys' (read the link earlier) and showed a willingness to have a competitive team by trading for (and possibly extending) guys like Bell, Upton and Longoria (those deal could already be done).

 

Let me also say (and I've said this before), if the only reason a guy comes to Baltimore is you offer him the most money, it's pretty likely he doesn't actually want to be here...and that's an issue when it comes to collective performance.  Primary reason I don't like high end FA.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Dude you make some reasonable points on the trades. Nothing more to really add that I haven't already said.

[SportsGuy]

I just hadn't come back to it yet.

There's certainly an element of truth in FA versus trade in general. There are some dramatic differences though. When you trade, you are generally dealing with the team. When you sign a FA, you have to deal with interests of a bunch of teams and you lack any control of the timing unless you want to be absurdly stupid.

There's also all of the trades where "Yankees get Degrom" or whatever. Opportunity really comes down to cost of availability.

Basically I proposed 3 trades.

SF: Longoria and cash for [something outside the top30]

PIT: Bell, Archer, Polonco, Frazier, Tucker, Martin for Mountcastle, Diaz, Baumann and Akin.

LAA: Upton, cash and Adams for Santander and Polonco

I'd be curious why you wouldn't think there'd be significant opportunity to complete those type trades. I'd actually argue that all of them favor the other team more than the Orioles. Several of you indicated you didn't like them for the Orioles.....but we've already walked through how they give you some opportunity now and don't (necessarily) negatively impact the future.

There'd be even more opportunity to do them sooner (in 2020 versus upcoming offseason) just because they are all tied to cost risk (and there's a lot of revenue challenges/uncertainty going on today)

How many 10 player trades do you see?

You asked, why isn’t there significant opportunity to complete that trade? I’d say the size of the deal and money are 2 large reasons that trade wouldn’t happen.

I think you can make it simpler.

The Longo trade works.

I wouldn’t do the Pitt trade. If you wanted one of the MIers, you should be able to work out a deal for one of them. No need to get the rest.

If the Angels wanted to dump Upton (which I bet they don’t, especially for 2020) and you are able to take on Adams, you can send them Santander and perhaps another MLer that helps now. Could be a BP guy, maybe it’s Cobb, perhaps a guy like Nunez? Lots of possibilities.

[Mackus]

5/$80M seems quite low for Stroman to me unless he has a bad year in 2020 (or whatever is next). He's not that different than Patrick Corbin who got 6/$140M. Corbin was coming off a big year, so that drove him up some and he signed a year younger than Stroman will, but careers are similar (currently have equal ERA+, which for Corbin includes his excellent 2019 which came after he signed). Maybe 5 years still works but it'll be for over $20M if he has a solid season, and if he has a very good year he'll get more per year and a 6th year.

Just in general, if you propose a FA contract and your general take on it is "yeah that's a reasonable deal, I'd sign him for that" then it's too low to be considered practical.

Fortunately for the O's, and extra $5M a year is certainly in budget, so he can still be a part of anybody's plan. You just need to pony up the proper cash.

[SportsGuy]

5/$80M seems quite low for Stroman to me unless he has a bad year in 2020 (or whatever is next). He's not that different than Patrick Corbin who got 6/$140M. Corbin was coming off a big year, so that drove him up some and he signed a year younger than Stroman will, but careers are similar (currently have equal ERA+, which for Corbin includes his excellent 2019 which came after he signed). Maybe 5 years still works but it'll be for over $20M if he has a solid season, and if he has a very good year he'll get more per year and a 6th year.

Just in general, if you propose a FA contract and your general take on it is "yeah that's a reasonable deal, I'd sign him for that" then it's too low to be considered practical.

Fortunately for the O's, and extra $5M a year is certainly in budget, so he can still be a part of anybody's plan. You just need to pony up the proper cash.

Well, Corbin has/had the bigger K numbers and better walk rates. He also hasn’t had the more recent higher IP numbers..ie the amount of innings right before he signs a contract.

I tend to think he gets more than 5/80 as well but you also wonder what FA contracts will be like this coming offseason...how does the lesser money coming in effect contracts?

I’d like to sign him to something like 4/88 with a 5th year option for 25M.

[Mackus]

The uncertainty regarding this strange season is definitely a factor, can only guess how that will effect the market.

But ignoring that, I think 4/$88M is reasonable but my guess would be that you have to guarantee that 5th season to get it done. Unless he has an more than trivial injury that costs him some serious time.

[SportsGuy]

The uncertainty regarding this strange season is definitely a factor, can only guess how that will effect the market.

But ignoring that, I think 4/$88M is reasonable but my guess would be that you have to guarantee that 5th season to get it done. Unless he has an more than trivial injury that costs him some serious time.

I could see needing to guarantee that 5th year.

I hate 5+ year deals for pitchers but I also think the style of pitcher Stroman is, that he should be ok if he stays healthy.

The one thing I will say w/r/t signing him is that the team had better improve the IF defense and while Iglesias is good defensively, he’s obviously not a long term option there.

The holes this organization has in terms of IF talent are pretty big.

[dude]

5/$80M seems quite low for Stroman to me unless he has a bad year in 2020 (or whatever is next). He's not that different than Patrick Corbin ....

 

I don't think Corbin is a good comp here.  I think Alex Cobb is a better comp and you're trading his injury history for Stroman's height in the eval.

 

If Stroman wants to stay in NY (and one of the teams want him), he's not going to be an Oriole.

 

Corbin was a pretty reasonable trade target before the 2018 season. There was even word that the DBacks were trying to move his contract (I think we discussed adding him here).  They kept him and he had a monster year (top5 Cy) and the Nats had to bribe him away from the Yankees.

 

Stroman doesn't have a big analytic's profile to dream on like Wheeler had this year or Syndergaard will.

 

He's a 30yr old, 5'7", RHed pitcher without special H9 and SO9 rates.  My guess is most teams want to limit him to 4 years.  If he finishes top5 Cy, maybe that changes, but just a good profile year isn't likely to change it dramatically.

 

Current environment is a challenge.  Also, don't believe the recent FA Boras signing as market rates.  2 and 3 years ago is what the market will look like after the CBA is done. 

[Mackus]

Wei-Yin Chen got 5/$80M a half decade ago. I can't see Stroman having to settle for that. But we'll see I guess.

[dude]

Wei-Yin Chen got 5/$80M a half decade ago. I can't see Stroman having to settle for that. But we'll see I guess.

 

Chen isn't a bad comp.  30 year old as a FA,  4 solid seasons with the Orioles and had an 123 OPS+ in 2015 and he had similar H9 and SO9 rates.

 

...but you need to go review that contract.  There was little competition for that contract and (while that doesn't seem late now) he finally signed at the end of JAN.  That deal was significantly deferred (short term) without interest and the last 3 years were player options that it appears the Marlins was hoping he'd opt out of.  

 

If you want to say 5/80 is 5/80 and you just adjust for inflation today, OK, but I think there's more to analyze in there. Chen couldn't get that 2 years ago.

 

Keuchel is probably a better comp to Chen today and we've seen the difficulty he had in his 2019 contract.  Keuchel is probably the better comp overall and he had some higher profile moments and is LH.

 

You're right, we'll see.  We won't see with the Orioles, but Stroman will make some bank regardless..