329 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

I just don't get the part about "only 24" and still a prospect. Good grief at what age do you start to worry? 25, 30?  An even decent player should be in the majors by the time they are 24. IMO of course...lol.

 

Kind of multiple points there imo Steve.   You of course want players ascending to the Majors as quickly as possible (given talent / performance / need).  Getting acclimated, and moving towards whatever peak they'll reach.  And while in the Minors, you hopefully want to see continued development, production up the chain as they advance, and players earning / forcing their way to the bigs. 

And the longer it takes a player to reach / force his way to the Majors; yeah their potential to greatly impact the ML roster is reduced.  

However, development is not linear. 

At 24, he's several years away from what is widely considered 'prime.'  And you've got him under long-term team control costing nothing.  So, imo, there is nothing to really worry about.  He either produces enough to earn his way up, or he doesn't.   

But given that he's already had AA success (at the age he did) and everyone that sees him recognizes he has a usable skill set...  there is more to like vs. not, even if legitimate questions exist. 

[Mackus]

I just don't get the part about "only 24" and still a prospect. Good grief at what age do you start to worry? 25, 30?  An even decent player should be in the majors by the time they are 24. IMO of course...lol.

 

This crop of guys is all going to be treated differently because of the lost year.  So it's not the same as a guy half a decade ago who hit well at AA as a 21 or 22 y/o (which Diaz did) and then didn't produce at AAA at 23.  Diaz lost that year.  If he had struggled at AAA as a 23 y/o and then struggled again this year, that's pretty damning.  Two bad years in a row is about all it takes to totally check out on a prospect.  But Diaz hasn't done that.  He was mediocre the second half of 2018 after a scorching first half, good to very good in 2019, incomplete like everyone else in 2020, then hurt/bad so far in 2021. 

 

If he's bad all year in 2021 then it's red alert time and he's basically on his last shot in 2022.  If he plays well in July and August, then he's on the short list for Baltimore in early 2022 (I don't think they give him a cup of coffee for service time reasons, no matter how hot he finishes the season).

 

Age is vital for comparing a prospect's stats at each level and developing a picture of what you think they can be and how they compare to peers.  It's not as vital for determining their own career path. 

 

24 at AAA is not too old.  Trey Mancini started his Age 24 season at AA then moved up to AAA and was good but not great (775 OPS in a 700 OPS league).  Hit 3 home runs in a week during his cup of coffee and has never looked back.

 

Also, "starting to worry" is absolutely fine.  Writing him off as a non-prospect is wrong.  On the other hand, it doesn't matter at all who fans pay attention to or not.  It's not like following someone's stat line and maybe going to a game twice a summer helps the player improve.  So feel free to ignore whomever you want to ignore.

[Mackus]

Diaz has the scouting pedigree, that's why the Dodgers paid $31M to sign him out of Cuba, roughly equivalent value to a early-1st draft pick.

Diaz has the lower minors production.

Diaz has produced at AA at relevant ages.

Diaz has not produced at AAA.

Diaz has not shown he can stay healthy.

 

He's got two more boxes to check.  If he doesn't check them, he won't make it.  But not having checked them yet and not going to check them are different things.  His time left to check those boxes is waning.  Though not really from a technical standpoint, as he was just added to the 40-man for this season, so he's on his first of 3 options.  Can be sent down next year and 2023 without needing to clear waivers.

[makoman]

Mackus kinda beat me to this as I was writing but I'll post it anyway.

 

I mean, look at Austin Hays. I think everyone still thinks he has the potential to be an above average regular. 

 

In 2017 at age 21 Hays destroyed hi A and AA with a 167 and 161 wRC+. This got him on all the top 100 lists, top 30 in some. He got rewarded with a trip to the majors, putting him on the 40 man early, something that I think 100% would not have happened in the current regime.

 

Then in 2018, age 22, Hays was hurt and mediocre. Just 75 total games, 89 wRC+ at AA.

 

Then in 2019, age 23 Hays was hurt. Just 82 total games. Most of them at AAA with a mediocre 89 wRC+. He was good in the majors but in just 21 games.

 

2020 and 2021 basically he’s an average MLer.

 

Diaz, in 2017 at age 20 was decent at hi A then destroyed AA with a 149 wRC+, though in only 31 games. 

 

It wasn’t a fluke though because in 2018 at age 21 he was slightly better with a 152 wRC+. Total not far off from where Hays was in his monster year. He played worse after the trade, I still think the O’s org tried to change something with him at first. 

 

In 2019 at age 22 he was hurt a lot, only 85 games, but very good, a 135 wRC+ at AA. A bit better than the Hays track.

 

In 2020 we have no information really what happened at the alternative site. I think it’s obvious that with this regime there was no chance of him being on the ML roster as he wasn’t required to be on the 40 man roster yet. But it's not fair to hold the Covid year against him IMO.

 

In 2021 he’s been hurt and mediocre, but it’s only been 23 games. If, at the end of the year, this is just a hurt and mediocre year then he will be approaching failed prospect status. He has a few months to turn it around. And really he probably gets next year to turn it around too, but he may start getting passed by others if others step up.

[dude]

I just don't get the part about "only 24" and still a prospect. Good grief at what age do you start to worry? 25, 30?  An even decent player should be in the majors by the time they are 24. IMO of course...lol.

 

Right, because player development isn't a thing, in your opinion.

[Mackus]

Additionally about Diaz, I think we need to talk about ceiling.  Maybe that is the confusion between the folks saying he's a "non-prospect" and others.  He doesn't have a particularly high ceiling, IMO.  Guys can always get better, so maybe he becomes even better than his current ceiling, but he projects as a solid player and not really a star player.  He's kind of a "ok at everything" guy and not someone with one big skill that makes him stand out.  If he makes it, he's likely just a nice guy in the OF, and not a borderline All Star.  If he was a SP, you'd say he's a back-end type and not a front-end guy.

 

There is nothing wrong with that, you need those guys to fill out a roster.  I don't think he's got much shot to be a 850+ bat in RF.  He's more of an upper 700s bat.  275/350/425 type guy.

[dude]

...You of course want players ascending to the Majors as quickly as possible (given talent / performance / need). 

 

And the longer it takes a player to reach / force his way to the Majors; yeah their potential to greatly impact the ML roster is reduced.  

 

I pulled these out (I don't think there's context around them that matters here...) but I don't understand why you think these 2 things.

 

The age a player reaches the Majors is irrelevant to the Team or the fanbase.  The Player certainly cares for reasons which have only to do with their career numbers and total earning potential.

 

The window a player has for impacting the Team isn't age related.  You could actually argue for the opposite (given the current rules) in terms of keeping/extending a player

[makoman]

Additionally about Diaz, I think we need to talk about ceiling.  Maybe that is the confusion between the folks saying he's a "non-prospect" and others.  He doesn't have a particularly high ceiling, IMO.  Guys can always get better, so maybe he becomes even better than his current ceiling, but he projects as a solid player and not really a star player.  He's kind of a "ok at everything" guy and not someone with one big skill that makes him stand out.  If he makes it, he's likely just a nice guy in the OF, and not a borderline All Star.  If he was a SP, you'd say he's a back-end type and not a front-end guy.

 

There is nothing wrong with that, you need those guys to fill out a roster.  I don't think he's got much shot to be a 850+ bat in RF.  He's more of an upper 700s bat.  275/350/425 type guy.

Yeah, if it goes right he's probably a Markakis type, a guy who had 1 career AS game and 1 year with MVP votes, but who could be an important contributor to playoff teams. (Of course Nick played 155 games 11 times, that appears slightly optimistic for Diaz).

[Old Man]

Im pretty much given up that Manny trade was a disaster for the Birds.

 

However, I still hold out hope that Diaz will amount to something at some point. His window is not over, but the Fat Lady is starting to warm up.

[Mike B]

Im pretty much given up that Manny trade was a disaster for the Birds.

 

However, I still hold out hope that Diaz will amount to something at some point. His window is not over, but the Fat Lady is starting to warm up.

Probably a fair way of looking at it.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Right, because player development isn't a thing, in your opinion.

Total garbage. Never even hinted at such a thing. What I have said repeatedly is that I think baseball is way too slow with the process. And I get some of that is since baseball has such an extensive minor league system they need to support.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Total garbage. Never even hinted at such a thing. What I have said repeatedly is that I think baseball is way too slow with the process. And I get some of that is since baseball has such an extensive minor league system they need to support.

 

Have you considered that the process is slow and baseball has an extensive minor league system BECAUSE players need time to develop?

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I pulled these out (I don't think there's context around them that matters here...) but I don't understand why you think these 2 things.

 

The age a player reaches the Majors is irrelevant to the Team or the fanbase.  The Player certainly cares for reasons which have only to do with their career numbers and total earning potential.

 

The window a player has for impacting the Team isn't age related.  You could actually argue for the opposite (given the current rules) in terms of keeping/extending a player

How can you possibly say that with a straight face? Chris was spot on with his comment on age and ability to impact the ML team. 

 

Fans sure as heck care. Look at the discussion on Mancini. Concern that his age may be to the point where extending him isn't smart compared to trading him for some prospects. If his exact career had occurred starting at 22 nobody would be thinking anything but extending him. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Have you considered that the process is slow and baseball has an extensive minor league system BECAUSE players need time to develop?

Of course. I get hitting a baseball is a very hard thing to do. But I still believe baseball has something wrong. 20 years ago kids played baseball in their local league and then maybe an all star team. Today they are playing dang near year round. They are getting way more development as young teenagers than back then. The training to them is way more advanced than 20 years ago. Yet the minor league system has not seemed to change much at all as far as getting players to the majors.

 

Soccer worldwide has invested extensively in youth training programs. MLS teams have development programs. All aimed at getting players evaluated and trained and hopefully playing at the highest level they can at a much younger age than baseball has. They recognize that careers are short and youth just has physical advantages. Certainly soccer is a much more physical game than baseball.

 

But the point is this. Youth players have way more baseball training time these days than they did not that long ago. Baseball has way more tools and knowledge in developing players today than not that long ago. So why hasn't that apparently led to players advancing to the majors sooner? Now this is just perception on my part as I haven't done any looking at data but it seems like the average age of players reaching the majors hasn't lowered much if any and that is what I question.

[Mackus]

Baseball has way more tools and knowledge in developing players today than not that long ago. So why hasn't that apparently led to players advancing to the majors sooner?

 

I'd guess that it's because that rising tide of advanced training raises all boats.  The guys baseball is drafting each year have a lot more history and experience by the time they are drafted than guys from the past, but then the guys ahead of those players in the major leagues also have that much more experience and mastery of their skill.

 

Everyone is better now.  That means it's still a pretty similar changing of the guard in terms of promoting players to the majors.  The minor league players now are better than the minor leaguers in the past, but the major leaguers are better than the major leaguers in the past.  So the line that these minor leaguers need to reach to be as good as the guys ahead of them is as far ahead of them as it was for minor leaguers in the past.

 

Also remember, that for every guy that reaches the majors, somebody has to leave the majors.  It's a one-in, one-out process.  So if the players that are established in the majors are able to continue producing longer, and have longer careers than decades before (largely because of improvements in training, nutrition, and medical procedures) then there are fewer opportunities for new minor league guys to break in.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I pulled these out (I don't think there's context around them that matters here...) but I don't understand why you think these 2 things.

 

The age a player reaches the Majors is irrelevant to the Team or the fanbase.  The Player certainly cares for reasons which have only to do with their career numbers and total earning potential.

 

The window a player has for impacting the Team isn't age related.  You could actually argue for the opposite (given the current rules) in terms of keeping/extending a player

In what's right for the team (and sometimes the player) I totally agree with you.  What I had in-mind was basically Player X's HOF trajectory. (This was in response to Steve's counter point about Diaz's age.) Sooner they are up producing, accumulating, impacting... obviously the better overall career they can have (whether that's HOF trajectory, All-Star, MLB regular, etc.) 

[Mike in STL]

Of course. I get hitting a baseball is a very hard thing to do. But I still believe baseball has something wrong. 20 years ago kids played baseball in their local league and then maybe an all star team. Today they are playing dang near year round. They are getting way more development as young teenagers than back then. The training to them is way more advanced than 20 years ago. Yet the minor league system has not seemed to change much at all as far as getting players to the majors.

Soccer worldwide has invested extensively in youth training programs. MLS teams have development programs. All aimed at getting players evaluated and trained and hopefully playing at the highest level they can at a much younger age than baseball has. They recognize that careers are short and youth just has physical advantages. Certainly soccer is a much more physical game than baseball.

But the point is this. Youth players have way more baseball training time these days than they did not that long ago. Baseball has way more tools and knowledge in developing players today than not that long ago. So why hasn't that apparently led to players advancing to the majors sooner? Now this is just perception on my part as I haven't done any looking at data but it seems like the average age of players reaching the majors hasn't lowered much if any and that is what I question.

Baseballs rules give no incentive to get players up to the majors faster. Kris Bryant lost his grievance he filed about suspected service time manipulation. The Mariners FO was caught on tape saying what we all already know that service time manipulation exists. The worst commissioner in all of sports isn’t going to do anything about it.

Service time needs to start on a certain day after being drafted rather than when they get to the majors. The draft also needs to have about 30 rounds cut off it and teams can just sign undrafted free agents after that point.

[NewMarketSean]

At this point looking unlikely that he'll ever be called up to majors much less make an impact.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Ok Mackus that makes some sense. But wouldn't that same logic apply to other sports? Because for sure the average age of when players reach the MLS has come down. Perhaps the difference is that the length of careers hasn't increased as much in soccer compared to baseball due to the physical nature of the game?

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Baseballs rules give no incentive to get players up to the majors faster. Kris Bryant lost his grievance he filed about suspected service time manipulation. The Mariners FO was caught on tape saying what we all already know that service time manipulation exists. The worst commissioner in all of sports isn’t going to do anything about it.

Service time needs to start on a certain day after being drafted rather than when they get to the majors. The draft also needs to have about 30 rounds cut off it and teams can just sign undrafted free agents after that point.

For sure that is a factor. But baseball has some incentive. The younger a player can help the ML team the longer they can help the team. Is that not an incentive? Perhaps not as strong as the service time/cost issue.