628 replies to this topic

[BSLRoseKatz]

The idea that someone is suddenly a useful addition because they're a veteran just feels like a flawed premise to me. Lots of catchers had more experience than Adley yet Adley was better than almost all of them. Experience is cool if it's someone coming off another good season where you can count on consistency from them, but experience in a year with an 80 OPS+ just makes it seem like your career is getting closer to ending 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Westburg and Norby arent elite prospects in the vein of Gunnar, AR, Volpe, Witt, Rordriguez who break camp as a rookie starter. AR wouldve last year without the injury. As I said in the other thread we should be so lucky that someone snatches the starting gig away from Frazier at some point and runs with it. That would be awesome. Shouldnt be handed to them. Especially in Dec or Jan when Frazier was signed. Not to open the year in April either.

[BSLMikeLowe]

31 years old and 2 of the past 3 seasons at a sub-1 WAR. The glove only means he's a 25/26th super-utility guy you pay about half of what he'll make. Having both him and Mateo at the bottom of the order most days is gonna be real fun. At least we had plenty of opportunity to get used to what it's like last season.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yup and while the general fan looks at offense because its easy and obvious you can lose runs on defense with the little things or big things too like errors. But an up the middle defender is going to be in plays quite a lot. So Westburg, Norby, and even Ortiz better be able to handle those responsibilites well. Everything about Frazier's defense and expierence as a 2b says he will handle those responsibilites.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Btw the 2b FA pool was super weak this offseason. I aint here to have you all tell me what you think Frazier was worth. I believe his contract was in line with what was projected for him.

[glenn__davis]

Comparing Westburg to Rodriguez isn't a valid comparison.

 

I absolutely hated the Frazier signing, but whether we understand it or not, Elias sees something in Frazier that he likes.  He has all the same data and info that ya'll are referencing and still decided that he was worth $8m.  I think it was a bad decision based on the info available to us and never would have made the signing and would have kept it open for one of the young guys but clearly Elias sees something in him that we don't see.  The signing pretty much sealed that none of those young guys would make the team.

 

I 100% believe that if Rodriguez came in and looked like the guy he looked like pre-injury he would have made the team.  He didn't, and got out-pitched at the end by Wells who ended with 2 very nice starts and who had a very respectable season at the MLB level last year.  

[Mackus]

I absolutely hated the Frazier signing, but whether we understand it or not, Elias sees something in Frazier that he likes. He has all the same data and info that ya'll are referencing and still decided that he was worth $8m. I think it was a bad decision based on the info available to us and never would have made the signing and would have kept it open for one of the young guys but clearly Elias sees something in him that we don't see. The signing pretty much sealed that none of those young guys would make the team.

Doesn't this logic kind of invalidate any criticism of Elias or the Orioles? Every move he makes he does with a reason and purpose.

[glenn__davis]

Doesn't this logic kind of invalidate any criticism of Elias or the Orioles? Every move he makes he does with a reason and purpose.

 

I'm hesitant to be overly critical or overly positive in situations where I only see a part of the picture.  I'll readily admit to that.  Information is everything and we don't have all of the information.

 

I think the Frazier signing was really dumb and with the information available to us doesn't make much sense.  If I squint I can see 2035's reasoning about him being a good defensive player but it's not like Westburg is known as a butcher defensively.

 

As always, time will tell.  If Frazier sucks and Westburg is killing it in AAA there's obviously going to be a lot of chatter to bring him up.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I dont think it was about Frazier as much as it was not thinking his in house options were viable or ready. Yeah, the easy question was why arent we penciling Urias in at 2b. That thought never went through the minds of the FO brass? Maybe they have a better feel for how Urias would handle 2b fulltime. Maybe they have a better idea if Westburg and Norby are ready both offensively and defensively. Maybe. Or you know they just idiots who didnt weigh and think about their in house options at all before pursuing a FA 2b.

[BobPhelan]

Even if Frazier wasn’t signed, Urias would be the everyday 2B to start the year. Westburg was never going to make the opening day roster barring injury unless you want him sitting on the bench five days a week. I understand the frustration with Rodriguez but not with Westburg.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I'm hesitant to be overly critical or overly positive in situations where I only see a part of the picture. I'll readily admit to that. Information is everything and we don't have all of the information.

I think the Frazier signing was really dumb and with the information available to us doesn't make much sense. If I squint I can see 2035's reasoning about him being a good defensive player but it's not like Westburg is known as a butcher defensively.

As always, time will tell. If Frazier sucks and Westburg is killing it in AAA there's obviously going to be a lot of chatter to bring him up.

The first sentence of this post is the key. I have no problem expressing displeasure in a move made or moves not made but people tend to be overly critical and yes sometimes overly positive when only having pieces of the picture. Very well said. Its not that youre not allowed to have an opinion. Ive never said otherwsie when I was debating with everyone all winter. Just understand you have limited information and much less information than the GM, coach, etc when decisions are made.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Even if Frazier wasn’t signed, Urias would be the everyday 2B to start the year. Westburg was never going to make the opening day roster barring injury unless you want him sitting on the bench five days a week. I understand the frustration with Rodriguez but not with Westburg.

 

Could have moved Mateo, had Henderson at SS, Urias at 3rd, and Westburg at 2nd.  

Urias better at 3rd vs. 2nd anyway. 

[Nigel Tufnel]

Could have moved Mateo, had Henderson at SS, Urias at 3rd, and Westburg at 2nd.  

Urias better at 3rd vs. 2nd anyway. 

 

Elias probably never thought of that.

 

Or they may be thinking of Ortiz as the long term SS.

[Nigel Tufnel]

31 years old and 2 of the past 3 seasons at a sub-1 WAR. 

 

That's maybe a little unfair, since one of those years with <1 WAR was 2020, when there was only like 40% of a season and he had 0.8 WAR.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Could have moved Mateo, had Henderson at SS, Urias at 3rd, and Westburg at 2nd.

Urias better at 3rd vs. 2nd anyway.

That hurts the defense at 2b and SS significantly compared to where we are today. Not to mention you dont know whats available for Mateo. I have no interest in moving him for prospects.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Lets play a game.

 

Lets ASSUME that GRod had stayed up and gotten 15 innings prior to when he really gets called up.

Now pick the pitcher who would not have been in the rotation if GRod had stayed up (Wells or whomever but you have to pick it in advance just like Elias would have had to).

 

Now lets look on the magic day when GRod does come up and look at how 15 good innings (going to assume he was better than what he showed in ST which is a big stretch in my mind but ok) from him would have compared to the starts we actually get from whomever you would have taken out of the rotation from above.

 

I will wager (can we do that on here....lol) a fair sum that the difference won't amount to a hill of beans when it comes to the O's playoff stature at the end of the season. 

 

I mean come on guys. BEST case is GRod got 3 wins and whomever you'd have taken out got 3 losses. Yes I know we missed out by 3 games last season but this is the extreme case. Its way more likely to have almost zero impact.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Lets play a game.

 

Lets ASSUME that GRod had stayed up and gotten 15 innings prior to when he really gets called up.

Now pick the pitcher who would not have been in the rotation if GRod had stayed up (Wells or whomever but you have to pick it in advance just like Elias would have had to).

 

Now lets look on the magic day when GRod does come up and look at how 15 good innings (going to assume he was better than what he showed in ST which is a big stretch in my mind but ok) from him would have compared to the starts we actually get from whomever you would have taken out of the rotation from above.

 

I will wager (can we do that on here....lol) a fair sum that the difference won't amount to a hill of beans when it comes to the O's playoff stature at the end of the season. 

 

I mean come on guys. BEST case is GRod got 3 wins and whomever you'd have taken out got 3 losses. Yes I know we missed out by 3 games last season but this is the extreme case. Its way more likely to have almost zero impact.

 

Yep, like I said, this isn't like comparing Adley starting at C versus Chirinos.

[BSLRoseKatz]

I don't think the argument is Grayson vs Wells, it's Grayson in the rotation and Wells in the bullpen vs Wells in the rotation and Joey Krehbiel or whatever in the bullpen. Replace the worst member of the bullpen with Wells and I think that could make a modest difference. 

[BSLMikeLowe]

I don't think the argument is Grayson vs Wells, it's Grayson in the rotation and Wells in the bullpen vs Wells in the rotation and Joey Krehbiel or whatever in the bullpen. Replace the worst member of the bullpen with Wells and I think that could make a modest difference. 

 

Elias has said before that they don't let that dictate how they handle promotions. Agree or disagree with the decision on GR, he's sticking to that.

[Mackus]

Yep, like I said, this isn't like comparing Adley starting at C versus Chirinos.

 

Is it not?  I mean I know some of these guys were decent last year, but Rodriguez is a top-of-the-league prospect and the Orioles SP is essentially five guys who are all fringe SP.  I think its a pretty similar talent gap, not quite as wide but same ballpark.  Overall the difference between any two guys over a 3 week period isn't likely to make a ton of difference, unless you just happen to time things where one is ice cold or red hot and you get the good side of the trade.

 

Strangely, I've got less confidence in Gibson and Irvin than Kremer, Bradish, and Wells.  But I don't really think there was much chance of either of them not having started the season in the rotation, Irvin would've had to have been terrible to be optioned.  If we're gonna pick a guy to track as the one to compare against what we think Rodriguez could've done, then I'll say Irvin.  If I can't say him because of the aforementioned reasons, I'll pick Wells.  And I think part of that is because Wells would be a weapon in the pen, so its not just the difference between Wells v Rodriguez as SP but between Wells v <whoever> in the bullpen.  That's difficult to track, admittedly.