381 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: Hays aims to stay healthy and keep hitting throughout the season

https://www.masnspor...hout-the-season

[Mackus]

I didn't have the same observation personally, but lots of chatter about his defense slipping in LF as well later on last season in addition to his bad hitting after June.

 

I haven't been optimistic about him even in recent seasons when there was less track record of disappointment.  After last season, I don't think he deserved to return, but since the team refuses to invest in improving the team, bringing him back for $3M is certainly a better option than any of the other cheap 1-year guys they limit themselves to considering.  Its his job, for sure, so hopefully the positives can shine through for a change.  He did start last season hot, so do that again and then don't implode.

 

I don't think Stowers is much of a threat to him, since he probably can't handle LF in OPACY (same for Santander).  Cowser won't be an option until midseason at the earliest.  So Frazier is probably the only threat to playing time for Hays, if he and Urias are both hitting and Hays isn't, that's probably the simplest swap.

[makoman]

Stowers definitely had some shaky moments fielding once he was called up but I hope it was partially nerves and adjusting to MLB stadiums. I feel like Mullins had problems too when he first came up, it happens. I thought he was supposed to be a good defender and he did play 366 innings in CF in AAA last year...maybe by necessity as they didn't have anybody else, and not that I'd want him there in MLB, but I don't think they'd have done that if he was embarrassing himself. I hope he can handle LF if needed. 

 

As for Hays, we all hoped for more but he is who he is at this point, super streaky, maybe in part cause he's always banged up. He was close to being the All Star rep last year in the first half then disappeared for several months. Seems that way every year, though usually it's September that's better. I agree though that Cowser is the bigger threat to Hays later in the year, this might be the time where Hays gets passed by especially if the team's metrics agree that his defense is slipping

[Nigel Tufnel]

I'm hoping that his wrist injury was the reason for his post-June nosedive and that he'll be healthy in 2023, but I guess a wrist injury wouldn't really explain the decline in his defense.

[Mackus]

Here's the genesis of the discussion about Hays' defense...

 

https://forum.baltim...ture/?p=1033700

[BSLChrisStoner]

His defense wasn't at previous levels in the 2nd half. 
His offense went from solid to non-existent in the 2nd half. 

Maybe he just slumped. Maybe he lost a step.
Maybe he was dealing with nagging injuries. 

 

Either way, the production was the production - which was not good enough. 

 

He'll enter the year as the starter, and if he produces like he did in the first half of '22, he won't have to look over his shoulder.
If he gets off to a poor start, and it's June and and Cowser is producing... he will lose his spot. 

 

 

Baseball Savant, you can see the percentile rankings...   his end year rankings across the board aren't good...  
What would be helpful is to be able to look up the percentile rankings by date. If that's possible, I don't know how. 

Still believe in the ability. It's on him to produce consistently or not.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

As much as I hope I am wrong I suspect he is out of the lineup by June 15th. Its shameful that this position wasn't upgraded over the offseason.

[BobPhelan]

Stowers definitely had some shaky moments fielding once he was called up but I hope it was partially nerves and adjusting to MLB stadiums. I feel like Mullins had problems too when he first came up, it happens. I thought he was supposed to be a good defender and he did play 366 innings in CF in AAA last year...maybe by necessity as they didn't have anybody else, and not that I'd want him there in MLB, but I don't think they'd have done that if he was embarrassing himself. I hope he can handle LF if needed.

As for Hays, we all hoped for more but he is who he is at this point, super streaky, maybe in part cause he's always banged up. He was close to being the All Star rep last year in the first half then disappeared for several months. Seems that way every year, though usually it's September that's better. I agree though that Cowser is the bigger threat to Hays later in the year, this might be the time where Hays gets passed by especially if the team's metrics agree that his defense is slipping

Yeah I’m fairly confident Stowers will be better than Hays defensively for the reasons you noted. More range and while not as strong, a good arm as well.

[BSLChrisStoner]

https://www.mlb.com/...nor-wong-fltbk4

[BSLSteveBirrer]

As much as I hope I am wrong I suspect he is out of the lineup by June 15th. Its shameful that this position wasn't upgraded over the offseason.

Hope I eat crow on this one. Certainly starting hot.

[Mackus]

His OPS was over 800 thru June of last year.  I also don't trust him, but can't deny that the ability is in there to be solid or maybe even a bit better.  Needs to find a way to not just stay in the lineup but either avoid the nagging injuries or be able to play through them without disintegrating.  For probably the first time in his career we've got intriguing alternatives breathing down his neck.  Hopefully the pressure brings out the best in him.

[BSLChrisStoner]

His OPS was over 800 thru June of last year.  I also don't trust him, but can't deny that the ability is in there to be solid or maybe even a bit better.  Needs to find a way to not just stay in the lineup but either avoid the nagging injuries or be able to play through them without disintegrating.  For probably the first time in his career we've got intriguing alternatives breathing down his neck.  Hopefully the pressure brings out the best in him.

 

Seems like the wrist injury had a real impact... but your point is here correct imo. 
If you are going to stay in the lineup, can't have a nagging injury like that kill the performance. 

OTOH, it was catch-22 for him.  He needed (still needs) to show he can stay in the lineup.
So he probably was trying to show he could post-up daily, and it cost him. 

A healthy Hays is a talented player. 
But it is on him to show he can consistently produce. 

[Mackus]

I'm also curious about his defense.  I've never noticed a slip when watching, but there was some buzz last year about him falling way back defensively from previous seasons.  With that large LF to cover at home now, it's gonna be important for him to make sure his defense stays (or returns to) a high level its been in the past.  He's not CF-good, but I do think he's always had better than good range for LF and the arm is also very good especially so in LF.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I'm also curious about his defense.  I've never noticed a slip when watching, but there was some buzz last year about him falling way back defensively from previous seasons.  With that large LF to cover at home now, it's gonna be important for him to make sure his defense stays (or returns to) a high level its been in the past.  He's not CF-good, but I do think he's always had better than good range for LF and the arm is also very good especially so in LF.

 

His defense numbers also fell off after June. 
Obviously the wrist shouldn't have impacted range (could have impacted throwing). 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I'm also curious about his defense. I've never noticed a slip when watching, but there was some buzz last year about him falling way back defensively from previous seasons. With that large LF to cover at home now, it's gonna be important for him to make sure his defense stays (or returns to) a high level its been in the past. He's not CF-good, but I do think he's always had better than good range for LF and the arm is also very good especially so in LF.

Understanding SSS and the bad series in Bos I will note that going through fangraphs this morning I saw that all 3 of Mullins, Santander, and Hays have horrible defense that factors into their WAR. I believe it was the 3 worst in baseball by far.

[Mackus]

Understanding SSS and the bad series in Bos I will note that going through fangraphs this morning I saw that all 3 of Mullins, Santander, and Hays have horrible defense that factors into their WAR. I believe it was the 3 worst in baseball by far.

 

Seems like you're not understanding SSS here

 

If someone missed a routine play every week, they'd probably end up with the worst defensive value / WAR in history.  So no surprise at all that the WAR for the O's outfielders are terrible over the so-small-you-absolutely-have-to-ignore sample of the first 5 games of the season.  They've all missed a routine play, which is a pace that obviously cannot keep up.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Im just saying. Hays in particular I side with the metrics of late. I think his range if not truely some of the worst in MLB is substantially below avg. Im lumping jumps and tracking in with range for this purpose.

[BSLChrisStoner]

.322 / .364 / .523

 

.201 ISO (.180 career)
BB% 6.4 (5.8 career)
K% 23.5 (20.3 career)
 

fWAR 1.3  (4th on the O's... Cedric 1.8, Adley 1.6, Cano 1.5)

bWAR 1.6 (Cedric 1.8, Cano 1.8, Adley 1.7)

 

OAA: -2

UZR / 150: 1.2
DRS: 4

 

Percentile Rankings

 

Avg Exit Velocity: 82

Max Exit Velocity: 72
Hard Hit %: 74
xwOBA: 84
xBA: 90

xSLG: 89
Barrel: 84
Arm Strength: 91

 

 

We will see where he ends up, but a healthy Hays is a good player. 
Obviously he doesn't figure to bat .322 all year. 
His defensive numbers have been improving last few weeks.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

We saw this for 2 months last year. Hes not this good offensively but hopefully the lows arent nearly as low this year.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Now, it is good to see the defensive numbers improve. Hes still a below avg defender everywhere but arm strength but below avg is a lot more palatable than one of the worst in baseball