19 replies to this topic

[BradJohnson]

After discussing Jorge Mateo last week, we move on to Austin "League Average" Hays. As far as nicknames go, it's pretty bland. Half the article is about how to roster build when you have league-average players.

 

https://baltimorespo...ce-in-the-plan/

[hallas]

I'm fairly concerned about Hays going forward. I was generally willing to live with him as a mediocre bat because he played good defense. But the past 2 years his sprint speed, and consequently his range in the outfield, has fallen off a cliff. Its probably related to his hamstring injury. Regardless of the cause, it's a lot harder to live with a streaky, league-average or worse hitter when he doesn't play a premium position and he doesn't play his position particularly well.

[BradJohnson]

I meant to toss in a comment about the defense. He went from very fast and getting good jumps (which aren't entirely speed related), to barely above average as a runner and horrible jumps. There are players with his speed who cover twice the territory because they get much better reads off the bat.

 

It's partly why I think he could get an outsized benefit from showing up in the BSOHL next spring. Jean Segura was going down this path a few years back and managed to recover most of his speed in 2020 (he's since lost it again, but he's also a lot older than Hays).

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Maybe he and Stowers platoon

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The Statcast data is really bad but I just dont believe his defense is as bad as Statcast portrays. Interesting to see what the Os do with him. Platoon, starting gig, trade all real options. Non tender isnt an option this offseason but it could be next year

[Mackus]

Maybe he and Stowers platoon

 

Hays murdered lefties last year but that's the only time it's happened.  He's typically been a better against RHP.

[Mackus]

Hays defense slipping is news to me.  Can't say I've seen a ton of play this year, but he still looks fine when I watch.  I don't have a feel for which public metrics to trust and rely on for defense, but most (not all) of the familiar ones still grade him positively.

 

I can't see bringing him back if the front office agrees that his defense is no longer a positive.  

[You Play to Win the Game]

He had a real nice day at the plate last night, hopefully September Hays is about to show up. We need it. 

[BradJohnson]

Lefty mashing is a very rare trait. Generally, what looks like lefty mashing turns out to be either a sample artifact or a player facing lefties who happen to have large platoon splits. It's mostly a pitcher-side trait. 

 

Left-handed hitters can have true platoon splits, but those are based on inexperience against quality same-handed pitching and generally improve with opportunities. There's a mental aspect too. 

 

And that's not to say there's NO split. RHHs as a class are ~5% better against LHPs. What's rare are hitters who are (truly) more than one or two standard deviations better than that.

[BradJohnson]

Hays defense slipping is news to me.  Can't say I've seen a ton of play this year, but he still looks fine when I watch.  I don't have a feel for which public metrics to trust and rely on for defense, but most (not all) of the familiar ones still grade him positively.

 

I can't see bringing him back if the front office agrees that his defense is no longer a positive.  

 

The Statcast stats are pretty sharp in terms of building a scouting picture. Can't speak to their value as a runs against average tool. They're especially good for weeding out the folks who Derek Jeter it. i.e. they're very steady when they're there, but they have a knack for making playable balls look impossible. That seems to be Hays' issue.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

If you dont want to think of it as a straight platoon he is cheap enough to be Stowers insurance.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

But can you afford (not talking dollars but roster spots) to carry Hays, Stowers, and McKenna? Seems like 2 out of 3 works but not smart to carry all 3 of them.

[Mackus]

Maybe we're talking degree or duration, but I think there have been more than a few lefty mashers just in recent O's history.

 

Steve Pearce, Danny Valencia, Joey Rickard (mash is too strong, but useful vs lefties compared to useless vs righties), Hanser Alberto. 

 

Certainly agree that generally right handed bats have fewer struggles with RHP than left-handed bats do with LHP, so maybe the "lefty masher" title is just bestowed on those guys that end up filling in for the lefties that can't hit LHP.

[BradJohnson]

But can you afford (not talking dollars but roster spots) to carry Hays, Stowers, and McKenna? Seems like 2 out of 3 works but not smart to carry all 3 of them.

 

Yes, because Stowers and/or McKenna would be in Triple-A. 

[Mackus]

But can you afford (not talking dollars but roster spots) to carry Hays, Stowers, and McKenna? Seems like 2 out of 3 works but not smart to carry all 3 of them.

 

5 OF is fairly common.  And is something the O's could take advantage of next year since we wouldn't need a glove-only utility infielder for SS unless they make Henderson the SS and don't carry Mateo at all.

 

Let's say its Henderson/Mateo/Urias in the infield, just need a backup infielder who is 2B/3B capable (Vavra or could be Westburg as starting 2B and Urias as that guy?).  Then you've got your backup C and you can carry two backup OF.

[BradJohnson]

Maybe we're talking degree or duration, but I think there have been more than a few lefty mashers just in recent O's history.

 

Steve Pearce, Danny Valencia, Joey Rickard (mash is too strong, but useful vs lefties compared to useless vs righties), Hanser Alberto. 

 

Certainly agree that generally right handed bats have fewer struggles with RHP than left-handed bats do with LHP, so maybe the "lefty masher" title is just bestowed on those guys that end up filling in for the lefties that can't hit LHP.

 

I've done research on this for DFS. And Derek Carty has done even more. He insists lefty-mashing doesn't exist AT ALL. I think there are some rare examples. Valencia might be one of them if memory serves. I know Pearce had the reputation, but those appear to have been small sample artifacts.

 

There are certain pitch shapes that perform very poorly in the platoon. So, if you have a guy like Hanser where the scouting report basically says "throw breaking balls," and the lefties he happens to face mostly throw sweepers (very bad platoon splits), then they're set up to fail. One reason we have to reach back in time for our better examples is that teams have gained a better understanding of these factors and can mitigate them more effectively.

 

Check out the top 50 qualified hitters against LHP: https://www.fangraph...=17,d&page=1_50

 

Who's an actual lefty masher among them? Austin Slater maybe? Even that's purely based on past performance. He has flat splits this year.

[Mackus]

Pearce was 100+ points better against LHP than RHP for his career with nearly 1000 PA vs LHP.  When he had some individual seasons where that didn't track, those were the sample size outliers, IMO.

[BradJohnson]

I used him as a case study on FanGraphs ages ago. He had outsized opportunities against "bad" LHP and also took a huge share of his same-handed PAs against high-quality relievers. Once you adjusted for those, he was only like 10% better versus LHP which is well within 1 SD for his PA totals.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Yes, because Stowers and/or McKenna would be in Triple-A. 

Well ok but I was talking on the O's not the minors. Certainly if guys have options then ok. 

 

As for 5 OFers as Mackus points out. Ok but why when we have a ton of potential budget in front of us would we carry McKenna and Hays that are both just average level MLB players?

[hallas]

I meant to toss in a comment about the defense. He went from very fast and getting good jumps (which aren't entirely speed related), to barely above average as a runner and horrible jumps. There are players with his speed who cover twice the territory because they get much better reads off the bat.

 

It's partly why I think he could get an outsized benefit from showing up in the BSOHL next spring. Jean Segura was going down this path a few years back and managed to recover most of his speed in 2020 (he's since lost it again, but he's also a lot older than Hays).

 

According to statcast his jumps have never been good.  His reaction time has been below average every season he's been in the majors.  But when he sprinted 29 feet/second it didn't really matter and he was still an above average defender.  At 27.8 feet/second, while still getting bad jumps, he's below average now.