381 replies to this topic

[mweb08]

I would be starting Stowers over him right now and bringing Hays on late for Defense.

Agreed. I'd be happy with Vavra getting time at Hays' expense as well.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Its typically what limits him, but its injuries again. His numbers started plummeting right around the time he started getting bi-weekly wrist and hand injuries. He never got hurt badly enough to go on the IL this season but he's been well below 100%.

Its an area where we can look to upgrade, but he's also good enough to be penciled in for LF in 2023 if we make upgrades elsewhere (which is likely what I'd do). Stowers and Hays are probably the opening day corner OF and then one of them gets bumped by Cowser around June.

Meh. Even 100%(is anyone always 100) I think this is pretty much who he is. Numbers are pretty consistent his whole career. I would prefer to keep only 1 of him or Mountcastle.

[Mackus]

Meh. Even 100%(is anyone always 100) I think this is pretty much who he is. Numbers are pretty consistent his whole career. I would prefer to keep only 1 of him or Mountcastle.

 

I think we have more pressing needs than either guy, but would be happy with an upgrade.  Mountcastle I've got a lot more faith in becoming something solid at 1B.  Hays is 2 WAR max.  Playable, and maybe he gets lucky and stays healthy a whole year and has a big 4-win season in him, but I think he's just a passable starting LF. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

Neither Mountcastle or Hays has to be replaced.  You can win with both.  
I do expect Mountcastle will rebound next year. 

Love Hays' ability, but for whatever reason... bottomline is there wasn't enough production this year. 

So, I'd be looking to start him again to begin '23... and thinking of internal replacements by '24. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I don't think you can carry both Hays and McKenna if you think you are a playoff contender.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I don't think you can carry both Hays and McKenna if you think you are a playoff contender.

 

Have you seen Cedric's splits against LHP?

[Mackus]

I don't think you can carry both Hays and McKenna if you think you are a playoff contender.

I'd wager that almost every playoff team has a worse regular than Hays and a worse reserve than McKenna.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I'd wager that almost every playoff team has a worse regular than Hays and a worse reserve than McKenna.

Hmm might be right. Here's current active roster for OF and their OPS for players with the 4 most at bats listed as OF fpr teams ahead of the O's in the ALE.

 

Rays:

Aroz .795

Margot .769

Peralta .740

Siri .714

 

Blue Jays:

Hernandez .791

Springer .808

Gurriel .744

Tapia .645

 

Yankees:

Judge 1.085

Gallo .621

Hicks .628

Benintendi .735

 

Compared with Hays at .721 and McKenna at .669. Then we have Mullins as .727 and Santander at .801

[Mike B]

I'd wager that almost every playoff team has a worse regular than Hays and a worse reserve than McKenna.

I think, we forget what the average player in the majors is.  I also think because we see the Orioles every day, we see the flaws and think other teams do not have guys worse than ours.

There used to be a day, when we thought every Oriole was better than they really are.  Now with message boards, social media etc,  we bash our own players.

[mdrunning]

I think we have more pressing needs than either guy, but would be happy with an upgrade.  Mountcastle I've got a lot more faith in becoming something solid at 1B.  Hays is 2 WAR max.  Playable, and maybe he gets lucky and stays healthy a whole year and has a big 4-win season in him, but I think he's just a passable starting LF. 

Maybe the wrist injury he suffered earlier in the season is still hampering him, but I agree that his a 2 WAR profile might be about Hays's limit. He's also been plunked on the wrist a few times, but as long as he keeps diving out over the plate and tries to pull everything, that's how he's going to get pitched. Anything that runs in on him is going to give him trouble because it's hard to see the  ball with that type of approach. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: Hays proud that pain didn't lead to prolonged absences

https://www.masnspor...longed-absences

 

Cardinals pitcher Génesis Cabrera stepped on his left hand during a May 12 game in St. Louis, creating deep lacerations and forcing Hays for the first time to wear a batting glove as protection. The sprained right wrist occurred on June 23 after Hays made a sensational diving catch along the right field line at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, and he was hit by a pitch on July 4 to compound the injury. Hays noticed some tightness in his left oblique on Aug. 2 that required treatment and cost him four games.

All of it uncomfortable at his mildest points. None of it leading to absences of 15 days or more.

Blame for the dwindling returns from his at-bats lies at least partially with it.

Hays hit .293/.377/.467 in April and .299/.355/.443 in May. He dipped to .250/.284/.510 in June - though he also had six home runs and 23 RBIs for his highest totals in any month - .202/.269/.298 in July and .213/.250/.388 in August.

Excluded from the lineup last night, Hays was 11-for-50 (.220) with no home runs in September. But he also drew seven walks and had hits in six of his seven starts, including back-to-back multi-hit games.

“I think that’s all part of the long season,” Hays said. “For me, just learning how to do that as a big leaguer and play through things that, you’re not 100 percent, but you’re still able to play, you know? Just learning how to deal with those things, like the oblique thing earlier in the year. Just being able to show up and do what I need to do to prepare for the game, but not overwork my body when I’m going through those tough parts of the year where I’m banged up. That’s all part of the learning process.

 “I think part of some of the rough stretches I had this year was dealing with certain injuries. Like, I had the wrist thing and the oblique thing, but I still want to go out there and play. I can contribute. Just still learning how to go through those things. When you’re younger, you’re in the minor leagues and you’re a prospect and you’re dealing with stuff like that, I think it’s pushed to go on the IL, but at this point in my career it’s really important to just make sure that I’m out there for my team every night if I’m capable.

“I also think part of it is it’s just a hard game and it’s a hard league, and pitchers adjusted to certain things I was doing well at the beginning of the year, but there were parts of the year where I had to adjust some things I was doing, and some mechanical things, because of some of the stuff I was playing with, so I might have created some bad habits doing that, but at the end of the day I think it was worth it to be out there on the field and be in the games.”

Hays alluded to those habits during a July 13 interview at his locker, as he kept finding ways to compensate for the wrist soreness. He was in a 3-for-42 slump.

“It feels good enough to go out there and play,” he said. “It’s painful to do some of my drill work. I’ve had to switch up some of my routines in the cage, like my top-hand drill that I normally do, but I’m still able to swing with two hands, and it feels a lot better when I do a one-hand finish. Earlier in the year, I was doing a two-hand finish.

“I’ve had to change up a couple things, but I still feel like I’m able to go out there and compete, swing.”

[BobPhelan]

No, just prolonged ineffectiveness.

[BSLChrisStoner]

No, just prolonged ineffectiveness.

Yeah, that's a little rough, but also true enough.

He needed to show he could stay in the lineup.  Check.

He also needed to show he could stay in the lineup and be effective.  The injuries impacted, but bottomline there wasn't enough performance after the injuries.

 

He was a league average player. Needed more. So he likely goes into '23 as the starter, but if he isn't performing and Cowser earns his promotion... that's what happens. 

[Mackus]

Odor is the obvious spot that needs improving the most, but I think Hays is #2. Moreso than Mateo and much more so than Mountcastle who is probably akin to (or still ahead of) where Hays was a year ago.

Hays is passable, and maybe there is still some upside there, so you don't have to make a change (like you do at 2B), but that's a prime area to get better. And we have to get better offensively.

[Nigel Tufnel]

There's no benefit to being in the lineup if you suck because you're hurt. 

 

I don't really know about his injuries - maybe two weeks on the IL wouldn't have helped - but Hays has been hurting the team for like three months.  Hopefully it's like Mancini's lost 2018, and Hays can bounce back next year, but unlike 2018 there was a pennant race going on this year.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Odor is the obvious spot that needs improving the most, but I think Hays is #2. Moreso than Mateo and much more so than Mountcastle who is probably akin to (or still ahead of) where Hays was a year ago.

Hays is passable, and maybe there is still some upside there, so you don't have to make a change (like you do at 2B), but that's a prime area to get better. And we have to get better offensively.

 

Westburg is taking 2nd.  He'll be in the OD lineup.

[Mackus]

Westburg is taking 2nd.  He'll be in the OD lineup.

 

Only a sith deals in absolutes.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Only a sith deals in absolutes.

But I often deal in absolutes so Im not sure why I liked ths post. I think Westburg is the heavy odds on fav to get the most starts at 2b in '23. Not sure about OD. That could be Urias

[BSLSteveBirrer]

The conversation surrounding Hays is very similar to Boise State fans discussing Hank Backmeier. Sure he's bled orange and blue for going on his 4th season. And he's been smacked around a ton (led the nations in hits last year I believe). So some fans don't want him to lose his starting role.

 

Well he has proved he is tough as nails just like Hays has shown he can play while being banged up. But at the end of the day you still have to produce. This isn't grade school and there are no participation trophies. Would I keep Hays around? Yeah and I would probably give him a shot as a starting corner OFer next year. But he'd be on a short leash. League average is ok but he's been averaging about .220 for the last 3 months. That's not good enough to me for a team I expect to contend next year.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Camden Chat: Austin Hays impressed early on before a second-half slump sunk his stats

https://www.camdench...w-analysis-2022