253 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

Looking more deeply at his numbers, I might have to agree with you.

 

He's been incredibly young, so it's different comparing him to past guys from the NBP.  He's got a career 859 OPS over there and he's been a stud the past two years, with a nearly 1000 OPS at 21 and 22 y/o, albeit only in about 600 PA total.  Nori Aoki, for example, was a career 857 OPS with multiple seasons in the mid 900s.  Fukudome was 889 and was around 1000 for a 6-year period before coming over.  Iwamura was 850ish.  Kaz Matsui was about 800 inclding some young years in the 900s.  None of those guys put up the numbers Otani has at ages 21 and 22, though, they almost all were in their mid-20s before reaching those numbers.

 

Hideki Matsui may be the best comp for the bat, and obviously he had the best MLB career anyone from Japan has had at the plate.  He had nearly a 1000 OPS for his career in Japan, and got to that level by his Age 22 season.

[BSLChrisStoner]

The problem is, can he focus on pitching if he is hitting during off days?  

The competition is better... but he's already done that... so why couldn't he continue?

[bnickle]

Yeah Im not buying his bat comes over and plays very well. Especially as he focuses on pitching. But the hot take part of it was saying he'd step in and be one of the best hitters on the team.

[bnickle]

I also don't think the NPB is AAAA.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Yeah Im not buying his bat comes over and plays very well. Especially as he focuses on pitching. But the hot take part of it was saying he'd step in and be one of the best hitters on the team.

 

I also don't think the NPB is AAAA.

It's not really a hot take, and I've shown links previously of multiple people calling NPB AAAA.

If you have the production he had at that level at ages 21, and 22... he should be expected to hit at a pretty productive level in the Majors.

[Mackus]

My guess is that he could do either...pitch or hit...but he won't be able to do both.  I'm sure his bat would be an asset to an NL team compared to most pitchers, but I doubt he can pitch full time and hit occasionally in the AL and remain good enough to be worth hitting over a full-time hitter.

 

That said, if he insists on playing both ways, I'd let him DH or play RF a couple times a week if it convinces him to sign here.  Especially if we then can agree to a 3-4 year deal instead of 1-2.

[SportsGuy]

I see no reason to think he can't hit here.  He absolutely should be counted on that and its not hard to come to this lineup and be one of the better hitters.

 

I have a lot of doubt that he can start 25+ games and give you 400 at bats and play well.  

[bnickle]

Yeah no. If the thought was he'd be able to step in and be one of the best hitters on a team like the Os there would be more teams interested in making him a full time position player. That's not the case. He's viewed as a pitcher by everyone

[SportsGuy]

Yeah no. If there weren't questions about being able to step in and be one of the best hitters on a team like the Os there would be more teams interested in making him a full time position player. That's not the case. He's viewed as a pitcher by everyone

Because he has the upside of an ace.  That's more valuable (and harder to find) than an 800-850 OPS hitting.

[SportsGuy]

Some projections:

 

https://www.fangraph...he-most-impact/

[BSLChrisStoner]

Sports on Earth: The Most Interesting Man In Baseball

[BSLChrisStoner]

Sports on Earth: Ohtani Outlook For All 30 MLB Teams
http://www.sportsone...n-shohei-ohtani

[Mackus]

What's the most frustrating course of action here for the Orioles?

 

1)  Don't post at all

2)  Post $20M but have no real intent to sign him (have almost no bonus pool left, and won't do anything creative contractually to entice)

3)  Post less than $20M

[BSLChrisStoner]

What's the most frustrating course of action here for the Orioles?

 

1)  Don't post at all

2)  Post $20M but have no real intent to sign him (have almost no bonus pool left, and won't do anything creative contractually to entice)

3)  Post less than $20M

 

What do you think the O's provided to his Agent?

CBS Sports: Shohei Ohtani's agent sends questionnaire to all 30 teams
https://www.cbssport...o-all-30-teams/

 

 

A provided opportunity to be creative. To speak to why you need him, how'd he fit. To give other information.

I could see the O's basically doing nothing.

[Mackus]

They probably sent him a menu from Asahi and some old jumbotron clips of Koji's "Joke of the Day".

[Mackus]

Both of those things are/were great, btw.

[Pedro Cerrano]

They probably sent him a menu from Asahi and some old jumbotron clips of Koji's "Joke of the Day".

 

It was Bruce Chen's joke of the day!

 

PWNED!!!!

 

[Mackus]

What were the Koji videos?  Japanese Cowboy?

[SportsGuy]

They probably sent him a menu from Asahi and some old jumbotron clips of Koji's "Joke of the Day".

Probably would have been more effective than an actual pitch to him and his team.

[DJ MC]

MLB just announced the ratification of the new posting agreement, effective 11/1/2018, by the owners, and the posting of Otani.

 

So this is officially no longer "If Posted".