263 replies to this topic

[Mackus]

That's crazy.  NPB is gonna be furious.  MLB effectively just renegotiated the agreement without consulting them.

[DJ MC]

That's crazy.  NPB is gonna be furious.  MLB effectively just renegotiated the agreement without consulting them.

 

Nah, MLB would never allow any unintended consequences to result from their CBA agreements.

[Chris B]

Can't wait for a Japan team to come over here to sign a HS player for $10 million.

 

It will happen eventually and MLB will be furious.

[DJ MC]

Can't wait for a Japan team to come over here to sign a HS player for $10 million.

 

It will happen eventually and MLB will be furious.

 

Except if they do that MLB teams will start signing THEIR high schoolers, too. Neither side wants that.

[Mackus]

Except if they do that MLB teams will start signing THEIR high schoolers, too. Neither side wants that.

 

Except MLB teams couldn't give a Japanese teenager that much.  Most they could is $5.25M, and that's only if they sunk their entire international budget into one guy.  I guess they could double their allotment (or whatever the cap is) through trade and reach $10M. 

 

I think this new deal is a sign that MLB is willing to start poaching Japanese and Korean teenagers.  Orioles were ahead of the curve on that one.  It basically eliminates the posting system except for older players who aren't as valuable.  By the time a player is old enough to actually get decent money from an MLB team, they are likely already really close to free agency anyways.

[DJ MC]

Except MLB teams couldn't give a Japanese teenager that much.  Most they could is $5.25M, and that's only if they sunk their entire international budget into one guy.  I guess they could double their allotment (or whatever the cap is) through trade and reach $10M. 

 

I think this new deal is a sign that MLB is willing to start poaching Japanese and Korean teenagers.  Orioles were ahead of the curve on that one.  It basically eliminates the posting system except for older players who aren't as valuable.  By the time a player is old enough to actually get decent money from an MLB team, they are likely already really close to free agency anyways.

 

But MLB teams don't have to offer that much. Just whatever the player wants to come over and have a shot at an MLB career vs. a NPB career.

[BSLChrisStoner]

CBS Sports: Why this week made it less likely Shohei Otani will come to MLB this offseason
http://www.cbssports...this-offseason/

[BSLChrisStoner]

CBS Sports: Yankees, Dodgers among teams with 'heavy interest' in Japanese phenom Shohei Otani
https://www.cbssport...m-shohei-otani/

[SportsGuy]

Rosenthal:

Teams, according to scout in attendance, that requested seats to see Otani: AZ, BAL, BOS, CHC, CIN, CLE, LAD, NYY, PIT, SEA, TEX, TOR, WAS.

[bnickle]

I'm sure we'll be the highest bidder

[Mackus]

The O's should post the $20M like every other team will and then offer him a 2-year deal for whatever bonus pool money they have left, with an agreement to non-tender him after the second season.

 

He doesn't wanna be limited by the international cap, at maybe $10M or so total if some team can double it's bonus pool through trade, and then play for the league minimum for 3 years and then move onto 3 years of arbitration before ever becoming a free agent.  He also probably doesn't wanna wait two more years in Japan before he can sign for whatever his market is here.  So meet halfway, get him for very cheaply for two years, allow him to establish himself in MLB, and then he hits free agency as a 26 y/o SP with actual MLB background and not just dominance in Japan.

[BSLChrisStoner]

ESPN says he is expected to be posted.

[BSLChrisStoner]

The Ringer: The Most Exciting Baseball Player in the World Is Coming to MLB

[Mackus]

Orioles should offer him a one- or maybe two-year deal with a promise to non-tender him after the season.  Only way I see us being having a shot.

 

Basically would cost the $20M posting fee which would be paid to his Japenese team plus whatever of our international bonus allotment we still have available (maybe $2-3M?).

[Mike in STL]

Zero chance he's an Oriole.

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: How to Sign Shohei Ohtani

[DJ MC]

Orioles should offer him a one- or maybe two-year deal with a promise to non-tender him after the season.  Only way I see us being having a shot.

 

Basically would cost the $20M posting fee which would be paid to his Japenese team plus whatever of our international bonus allotment we still have available (maybe $2-3M?).

 

Apparently there's a lot of this talk going around, because supposedly MLB is quietly going to teams and telling them that if they get a whiff of a "handshake" agreement they could void the deal.

[Mackus]

I wouldnt make it a handshake deal. I'd put it in writing in his contract, just like every free agent from Japan or Korea or Cuba have had. Nothing I'm aware of in MLB's rules that prohibit an agreement to non-tender. If it's not explicitly against the rules for posted guys, I'd do it and fight the league if they try to stop it.

[DJ MC]

I wouldnt make it a handshake deal. I'd put it in writing in his contract, just like every free agent from Japan or Korea or Cuba have had. Nothing I'm aware of in MLB's rules that prohibit an agreement to non-tender. If it's not explicitly against the rules for posted guys, I'd do it and fight the league if they try to stop it.

 

On the one hand, they will go Bowie Kuhn on whichever team tries it and surely win.

 

On the other, we have the owner who would be willing to get in that kind of legal dogfight.

[Chris B]

http://www.espn.com/...quandered-value

 

A theory floated is that the team that lands Otani could circumvent the financial limitations in place by assuring the player that they won’t tender him a contract after the first or second season, allowing Otani to become a free agent -- with a prenegotiated deal to follow with the team that cut him free. But sources indicate that Major League Baseball would view that as an obvious attempt to effectively break the rules and would come down hard on Otani’s MLB team. “Because there’s no reasonable logic to failing to tender a contract to a young star player other than to get around the rules,” said one official.