484 replies to this topic

[CA-ORIOLE]

Somewhat interesting season for him. Actually got his walk rate to a workable level with a still pretty decent K rate and his HR rate doubled over that of the past 4 years. 

[SportsGuy]

Somewhat interesting season for him. Actually got his walk rate to a workable level with a still pretty decent K rate and his HR rate doubled over that of the past 4 years. 

He got hit hard this year...that doesn't usually happen to him.

[CA-ORIOLE]

He got hit hard this year...that doesn't usually happen to him.

Yeah he did. The GB rate declined as well. HR/FB rate also nearly doubling. A 21% HR/FB rate is really incredible. 

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Good grief please don't generate any kind of rationale that DD could use to bring him back. I do not want him anywhere near a mound as an O any more.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Good grief please don't generate any kind of rationale that DD could use to bring him back. I do not want him anywhere near a mound as an O any more.

I don't think you have anything to worry about Steve. Still, it's amazing how remarkably bad our SP was this year, even it it wasn't very good to begin with.  

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Baseball has a funny way of averaging itself out. Our SP way over performed in 2104. This year was probably more toward reality (which means they sucked) but they sucked even more than expected. So it evened out. The bottom line is its a shitty way to build a rotation.

[bnickle]

Ive never been happier to be at the end of an Orioles contract. I think we can safely say Jimenez wasnt worth his contract the last two years. Youll get em next time CA and Stoner.

[bnickle]

8/25   6.0 IP,   90p    5 H, 1 ER     0 BB, 4K     0.833 WHIP

8/30   6.2 IP, 101p    5 H, 3 ER     2 BB, 3K     1.049 WHIP

9/05   9.0 IP, 114p    2 H, 3 ER     1 BB, 6K     0.333 WHIP

9/11   7.0 IP, 106p    4 H, 2 ER     3 BB, 4K     1.000 WHIP

9/16   7.0 IP,   92p    7 H, 4 ER     0 BB, 8K     1.000 WHIP

9/21   5.1 IP, 105p    4 H, 0 ER     4 BB, 8K     1.600 WHIP

9/29   6.2 IP, 116p    1 H, 0 ER     3 BB, 5K     0.600 WHIP

 

Last 7 GS:   20.4 Outs/GS    ERA 2.45     WHIP 0.860 

 

Guess what?   I'm leaving my chips on the Ubaldo passline...

Really hope you remembered to pick up your chips sometime this offseason.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Really hope you remembered to pick up your chips sometime this offseason.

“Seven out”

[BSLChrisStoner]

Ive never been happier to be at the end of an Orioles contract. I think we can safely say Jimenez wasnt worth his contract the last two years. Youll get em next time CA and Stoner.

Jimenez is a great example of how the cost of FA pitching has skyrocketed.

He signed a 4 year $50M deal with the O's before '14.

By fWAR, he provided a combined 4.9 in fWAR during that period, equating to $38.3M in contractual value.

 

Had his '17 been the average of his '15 and '16 seasons; he would have ended '17 having provided $54.7M in contractual value.

 

As is, as difficult as he was to watch... frankly as poor as he often was.... he provided approximately 77% of the value of the deal he signed for.

 

The only real lessons anyone should take from the Jimenez contract are:

 

1) You have to develop pitching internally.
2) The next Jimenez like contract for mid-tier vets is going to be that much more expensive.

[Mike in STL]

But by fWAR a lot of elite players are vastly underpaid. So why should lesser and far worse players be paid their fWAR value when the ones that earn it dont come close?

By that rationale Manny is worth about $42M a year. Even for someone that talented, no thanks to that number. Especially after this year.

If that's what teams and agents are going by, then it's another reason the Orioles need to grow their arms better and invest more internationally. Because paying 50+ M for 1.2 wins a year over 4 years is insane. Save the 50 million and let the replacement pitch, try to make up that game with some timely dingers and catch a couple breaks.

[BSLChrisStoner]

But by fWAR a lot of elite players are vastly underpaid. So why should lesser and far worse players be paid their fWAR value when the ones that earn it dont come close?

By that rationale Manny is worth about $42M a year. Even for someone that talented, no thanks to that number. Especially after this year.

If that's what teams and agents are going by, then it's another reason the Orioles need to grow their arms better and invest more internationally. Because paying 50+ M for 1.2 wins a year over 4 years is insane. Save the 50 million and let the replacement pitch, try to make up that game with some timely dingers and catch a couple breaks.

 

The whole key of the game is getting young players (who are ready to produce) under long-term control... where you are getting production from them at little cost, allowing you to fill out the rosters around them.

They make less then they should in those early years, and then they cash out when they hit the FA market.


Totally agree with the last paragraph.  It's exactly why the O's have to grow their arms, and do more Internationally and just insane (and criminal) that they don't.   And that $50M contract Jimenez got, is going to cost nearly $100M this Winter for similar 'value.'  (Meaning if the O's sign a similar mid-tier vet...)

[Mackus]

I don't think the $/WAR thing works linearly, if at all.

 

Meaning, teams don't pay $8M/year for a 1.0 WAR FA, $16M for a 2.0 WAR FA, $24M for a 3.0 WAR FA, etc. 

 

There is a pyramid of talent - lots of borderline players, fewer starting caliber, fewer quality starters, fewer All-stars, fewest MVP-caliber players - teams pay out more for the marginal wins at the top of the pyramid than they do for each win at lower points. 

 

There is also a time-value discount built in when deals go for multiple years.  Even if teams did seem to reach consensus that a 2.5 WAR guy is worth $15M a year, a 4-year deal wouldn't be for $60M for that player.  You discount the future years by some percentage.

[SportsGuy]

Stars and scrubs...Thats how you build teams.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I think the problem with stats in a case like this is that they are very misleading. Looking at the total numbers isn't productive to me.

 

And I think Ubaldo is a great example. He has the ability to pitch very very well. And on occasion he does just that. When he is good he is really good. The problem is that when he's not he's incredibly terrible.  So you look at his overall numbers and it says he "earned" some value. But he really didn't. What he did was on occasion earn WAY above his actual salary. But most of the time he earned way less than his actual salary.

 

Simple put look at it this way. Which pitcher helps his team more.

 

Pitcher A who consistently goes out and pitches 6 innings with an ERA of 4.8.

or

Pitcher B who goes out once every five starts and pitches 8 innings to an ERA of 2.00 and the other four starts he pitches 4 innings with an ERA of 6.00.

 

Their overall numbers are very similar but Pitcher A gives you a much better shot to win day in and day out.

[Mackus]

Since that's the same ERA and B pitches over a full extra inning per start, obviously B is more valuable.

 

There is no need to turn Ubaldo into a case study, IMO.  It's interesting to discuss whether consistent production is more beneficial than the same raw production with more volatility.  Ubaldo doesn't do anything to address that point, though, because it's not like there is a serious counter-point to him.  He had a 7.20 ERA as a SP this year, averaged 5.0 IP/GS.  100 runs in 125 innings.  Doesn't matter how good he was when he was good, the overall numbers are such a dumpster fire that there isn't any insight to be gained to the wider theory.  Doesn't matter whether 22 starts 95 ER in 100 IP plus 3 starts with a 5 ER in 25 IP is better or worse than 25 starts with exactly 4 ER in 5 IP.  Neither is remotely close to acceptable.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Ive never been happier to be at the end of an Orioles contract. I think we can safely say Jimenez wasnt worth his contract the last two years. Youll get em next time CA and Stoner.

I primarily argued that UJ's 2015 season was valuable, more valuable than people were giving credit for, better than his ERA+ by WAR and that his WAR  (both fWAR and rWAR) was good that season. It was a few weeks int the 2016 season, UJ had started poorly, and I stated that I was basically indifferent about the contract at that time when pressed by another poster. I made no projections about UJ and am pretty aware about the instability of mid tier SP. Mid tier FA SP is not a viable team building strategy.

 

Unlike you, I consider Stoner to be a pretty rational, thoughtful and analytic poster. Like some others, I gather he doesn't care much for my style at times (don't really care). We disagree at times, but I am pretty fine being aligned with him for the most part. 

[BSLChrisStoner]

I primarily argued that UJ's 2015 season was valuable, more valuable than people were giving credit for, better than his ERA+ by WAR and that his WAR  (both fWAR and rWAR was good that season). It was a few weeks int the 2016 season, UJ had started poorly, and I stated that I was basically indifferent about the contract at that time when pressed by another poster. I made no projections about UJ and am pretty aware about the instability of mid tier SP. Mid tier FA SP is not a viable team building strategy.

 

Unlike you, I consider Stoner to be a pretty rational, thoughtful and analytic poster. Like some others, I gather he doesn't care much for my style at times (don't really care). We disagree at times, but I am pretty fine being aligned with him for the most part. 

 

Nickle can rile me up, but I appreciate his insights when he's not ranting or trolling.

I have zero problem with your style. I think you add a lot to the board.  If anything, I'd only want to see more of your thoughts.

[B00E00N00]

I know it's a little late guys but I just want to say, "WERE FREE of UBALDO!" 

[The Epic]

I'm still legit shocked that he was still on the team after the WC game in Toronto. 

 

Glad to be free of that...that...crapfest of a contract. LOL.