794 replies to this topic

[mdrunning]

If Sale can rebound, the Braves have themselves a bargain. He has an injury history, to be sure, but some of those could be attributed to bad luck and not a larger medical trend.

[makoman]

If Sale can rebound, the Braves have themselves a bargain. He has an injury history, to be sure, but some of those could be attributed to bad luck and not a larger medical trend.

Maybe it's bad luck, you never know, but when you've thrown 150 innings in 4 seasons and are turning 35 that doesn't give much reason for optimism.

[dude]

Braves extended AA through 2031 this week.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Strider...ugh, that's horrible.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Strider...ugh, that's horrible.

All pitchers are ticking timebombs. I think they always have been. Its stress on the ligiments now just as it was 100 years ago. That said the rise in breaking ball useage and the obsession with maxing velo is putting todays guys at greater risk


Also why I could never extend a young pitcher that is cost controlled for 4 or 5 years. Sure, there is some number that would work for me but it wouldnt work for the pitcher. Once you are talking about FA years if you want to bite the bullet on some massive 5 or 6 year deal then more power to you. Something I think PA had right for the most part when he would never give a guy more than 3 years for the longest time. Ill happily give a FA P much more AAV on a short deal. Will be imteresting to see how many years Burnes gets in FA assuming he has another quality year. Is he going to get 5+ years or is a team gonna give him a boatload more AAV for 3

[BaltBird 24]

Strider...ugh, that's horrible.

Shane Bieber, too.

[BSLChrisStoner]

• Braves lose All-Star Albies with fractured big toe

[BSLChrisStoner]

FanGraphs: Last Year’s Model of Ronald Acuña Jr. Is Nowhere in Sight

[Mike B]

Ronald Acuna out for the year with a torn ACL.

[dude]

Ronald Acuna out for the year with a torn ACL.

 

Just crushing.  Strider for the year already.  Best player and best pitcher, both on your team, both out for the year.

 

Couple thoughts....

 

1) There's no crying in Baseball.  Figure it out.

 

2) Lock in your first chuck of lifetime money.  It can literally happen to everyone.

 

3) If the Orioles were looking for an exit strategy with Mullins and Hays, here you go.  They both fit a number of places, but this injury, the Win Now context of their team, their need to manage costs basically allows for a palatable exit for everyone.

 

Mullins and Hays aren't even worth their salaries today, but they are both better than this and the Braves can buy low.  Orioles paying all of their salary along with some perceived need on the part of the Braves means you can probably get something that doesn't just look like a total dump.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I doubt the Braves are interested in our crappy OFs

[mdrunning]

I doubt the Braves are interested in our crappy OFs

The Braves also don't have the tradable assets like they did several years ago.

[makoman]

The Braves also don't have the tradable assets like they did several years ago.

You don’t need a bunch of top 100 prospects to trade for guys who are going to be non-tender candidates.

[dude]

I doubt the Braves are interested in our crappy OFs

 

I think your post lacks the context of reality.

 

If you just want to push back, ok, but both Mullins and Hays are much better than they've played this year.  They are 28/29 with good track records. 

 

We can discuss why they suck this year, but it doesn't matter and we couldn't prove one assessment over another, but they very much look like change-of-scenery type guys today.  

 

The Braves have a heavy payroll and may lack the interest in anything that is a straight salary dump.  They lack upper level OF prospects that can take a larger role so they are going external.  They also lack a MiL system to do anything significant in a competitive season.

 

I discuss these opportunities from the other direction all of the time.  There's ALWAYS situations out there that you can leverage, money or buy-low guys with good track records that don't fit for whatever reasons.  Today, the Orioles have a number of the guys I'd target if I was another team. The Braves situation is just unique with Acuna being done.

 

Mullins, Hays and 5M for Duvall, Garrett Baumann, Seth Keller and 2 kids from the DSL.

 

Easy (and good) for everyone. 

[Mackus]

I have no idea who those players are, but I'm not dumping Hays and Mullins right now. We only have one young guy who can play LF or CF (Cowser).

[BaltBird 24]

Hays is at least serviceable against LHP. Mullins has the luxury of no decent CF options beating down the door in AAA.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I think your post lacks the context of reality.

If you just want to push back, ok, but both Mullins and Hays are much better than they've played this year. They are 28/29 with good track records.

We can discuss why they suck this year, but it doesn't matter and we couldn't prove one assessment over another, but they very much look like change-of-scenery type guys today.

The Braves have a heavy payroll and may lack the interest in anything that is a straight salary dump. They lack upper level OF prospects that can take a larger role so they are going external. They also lack a MiL system to do anything significant in a competitive season.

I discuss these opportunities from the other direction all of the time. There's ALWAYS situations out there that you can leverage, money or buy-low guys with good track records that don't fit for whatever reasons. Today, the Orioles have a number of the guys I'd target if I was another team. The Braves situation is just unique with Acuna being done.

Mullins, Hays and 5M for Duvall, Garrett Baumann, Seth Keller and 2 kids from the DSL.

Easy (and good) for everyone.

I think it definitely matters why they suck this year.

There are three outcomes here

1) we sell them as distressed assets and get robbed by Atlanta

2) they actually suck and the Braves aren’t interested

3) they suck and we trick the Braves into taking them

Atlanta has maybe the two best contracts in baseball on the books. They’re a smart franchise. The odds of 3 being the outcome are very slim

[dude]

I have no idea who those players are, but I'm not dumping Hays and Mullins right now. We only have one young guy who can play LF or CF (Cowser).

 

You are dumping them at some point and you just have to decide when you rip that band aid off.  The Orioles have taken a clear approach with them (they aren't part of the future, fine) so you just have to decide the timing.  The Acuna injury could be an easy way to resolve the situation for all parties.  Orioles take care of it now instead of having to deal with it later.  Mullins and Hays would get a change of scenery and some more PT (new energy) and the Braves can buy low on a couple legit MLers given the challenges of Acuna's injury (they certainly wish they didn't need to consider this, but it is what it is.)

 

I don't think the CF thing is much of an issue.  Maybe you use it as an opportunity. Mateo has had some run in CF if you need him.  Cowser basically becomes the everyday CFer for now.  Stowers and Duvall platoon in LF short term.

 

You have a bench of McCann, Urias, Stowers/Duvall and you have an extra spot if you want it. 

 

There's a number of ways to do it externally (like a floundering guy like Dylan Carlson, others), but you could also just put Hudson Haskin onto the bench and move Fabian up to AAA and Bradfield up to AA.

 

Seems likely that in 2025 we'll have a Kjerstad (RF) and Cowser (LF/CF) and kind of need a RHed bat to compliment them in CF. 

 

My guess is they made something of a drug deal with him (Fabian) when they signed him and he could be your first option for 2025 and you get a chance to look at it a little now. Simply because Acuna tore up his knee.

[dude]

I think it definitely matters why they suck this year.

There are three outcomes here

1) we sell them as distressed assets and get robbed by Atlanta

2) they actually suck and the Braves aren’t interested

3) they suck and we trick the Braves into taking them

Atlanta has maybe the two best contracts in baseball on the books. They’re a smart franchise. The odds of 3 being the outcome are very slim

 

Your outcomes seem in conflict with one another.

 

None of that matters.  Both players have good track records.  Both players are less than a platoon in Baltimore today.  Baltimore is likely to get nothing for them if they run them to the end of the season (non-tender ARB3).  Both players would prefer more playing time in Baltimore, but if not Baltimore, somewhere else.  Atlanta needs a good buy-low opportunity given the loss of Acuna.

 

Orioles rip the band aid off, get a little something (more than later) and push the players into a better situation for them.

 

Mullins and Hays get a fresh start with a good team that can use their help today.

 

Braves get real ML players for basically nothing (and if they play better, maybe get more than they gave up later)

 

There's a couple teams that could use these guys now or later....but there really hasn't been a forcing function for doing something (so I haven't been posting a bunch of trade thoughts)....Acuna injury can force some action (why to discuss now).

[Mackus]

You are dumping them at some point and you just have to decide when you rip that band aid off.

Not dumping them midseason in a pennant chase without any solutions to replace them. LF here is a position that requires some quality to play. Can't just plug Kjerstad or Stowers and be ok. Offensively that'd be fine, but defense counts, too.

If Cowser is a solution in CF that helps, as LF is a lower bar, but a higher bar here than anywhere else.