129 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

And this is part of the problem with QBR.

 

A. Neither QB had much of a chance in this game. Considering how both Olines played today, I would say both were at least mediocre. So, Im supposed to assume an "average" QB would have played better than either of these QBs today. With the pressure both QBs had today I don't think there are Qbs in the NFL who would have played better. Maybe Manning since he is a savant at reading defenses and can call his own plays at will at the LOS. So this goes down as poor games for both QBs when really if you watched the game and considered everything going on around them I don't think anybody could give them less than a C which is  mediocre, or what should be a 50 on the QBR scale.

 

 

BTW.....the other thing it shows is the luck factor. Rodgers comes out slightly higher in the grade but had Joe not lost one of his two fumbles which set up 3 points or if Rodgers had lost one of his fumbles then Joe probably grades out equally, if not higher. Too many chance things like that that QBR doesn't measure.

 

Overall it's probably as good a measurement as their is...  However, reasonable complaints like these are why it's like everything else... just part of the evaluation process.

[bnickle]

QBR is far from perfect, but it's better than passer rating IMO. I would have to check, but I do think it considers fumbles that aren't lost too.<br /><br />Anyway, neither QB impressed today IMO and that's with the understanding that they had to overcome quite a bit.

 

 

This is semantics, but I don't equate a C with average, but whatever.

Yes, it probably does consider fumbles in general but Im sure a lost one that directly leads to opposing points nicks a QB more than when his own team recovers. Rodgers also fumbles twice on his side of the field but his team recovered.

 

 

Also, how in the hell is any QB supposed to be impressive under the conditions they faced in todays game. It's nearly impossible to be impressive when both Qbs faced this much pressure as quickly as they did. That's the point. You want to drop the grade because each fumbled twice that's fine. Maybe other Qbs take better care of the ball, but its nearly impossible to look impressive considering the circumstances. I mean yes, both Qbs missed on some throws but that's what pressure does, not only when its really there, but psychologically. Its natural for any Qbs  internal clock to start getting fast when they get hit constantly. It leads to inaccuracy, bad reads,etc. Again, that's just something no stat will ever measure and not one single QB is immune to it.

 

 

Again, youre grading on a standard 0-100 scale when clearly the difficulties in this game lead to grading on a scale. There is no way any QB was going to put up an 75+ day today when facing what they were facing. If you watch that game and understand what both QBs are facing there is no way anybody should be saying either QB was unimpressive or poor.

[mweb08]

I didn't say either was poor. But they weren't impressive either. What about their play was impressive?

[bnickle]

Overall it's probably as good a measurement as their is...  However, reasonable complaints like these are why it's like everything else... just part of the evaluation process.

There are too many "other" factors in football for people to use stats in general as the main basis for a grade or evaluation. Yes, its part of the process. it gives you some baseline, but they shouldn't be taken very seriously. Its too much of a team game.

 

Lets take Oline grades for example. Yanda has seen a huge drop in his graded numbers. He's gone from a top of the league guard to mediocre. Has he really though. You tell me, is he really playing that much worse this year or is he being nicked for having to try and cover for an absolutely atrocious Center. I'm not saying Marshall might not have slipped a little, but he's not a mediocre guard. He's not barely a plus graded Guard as PFF grades him this year. He's having to try and cover for a player who shouldn't be in the league.

[mweb08]

A combination of using watching the games, the stats, and others analysis is the way to go. No one is saying or implying to just use stats. I posted that stat because Rob mentioned that he hadn't seen it for today while referencing passer rating.

[bnickle]

I didn't say either was poor. But they weren't impressive either. What about their play was impressive?

 

 

And I didn't say either were impressive. What Im saying is it was impossible to be impressive when facing the pressure they faced today. In particular, Rodgers made numerous plays today with his feet. Stepping up into tight spaces and gaining time. Joe actually moved around and stepped up pretty well himself. He wasn't as effective when scrambling or on the move as Rodgers but just avoiding sacks and stepping up and buying time is huge. And Im not talking about a normal pocket step up, Im taking about tight spaces where you have to run through or with bodies all around you touching you. That spooks a ton of QBs in this league. Half the Qbs panic in those situations and either take sacks or throw really bad passes. For as much pressure as each faced ,for there to be only one Int was remarkable. Now granted our LB dropped a real easy one but still. Each QB made some really tough throws and picked up some big plays by moving around and buying time.

 

 

Bottom line is its absolutely insane to think that a league average QB would have played better, or that either of these guys were poor today. That's what Im supposed to believe according to QBR though. 

[bnickle]

A combination of using watching the games, the stats, and others analysis is the way to go. No one is saying or implying to just use stats. I posted that stat because Rob mentioned that he hadn't seen it for today while referencing passer rating.

Using stats to grade is much more effective in baseball and even basketball. I mean you'll hear me rail on stats in baseball some but when compared to football its like night and day. I take stats very seriously in baseball, not so much in football outside of your basic fantasy stats for my fantasy team.

 

 

And I'm not attacking you in anyway. I realize why you posted the stat. My beef is with stats in general in the NFL because youre right QB rating isn't very effective either. That said, I think the QBR grading of the Qbs in todays game is just as off as the QB rating.

[mweb08]

A QB could have absolutely been impressive today when one considers what they had to overcome. I don't think either was. That's all.

[mweb08]

I agree that football stats are the least reliable. The ones that try to come up with a stat from actual analysis of game footage are better attempts, though.

[bnickle]

I agree that football stats are the least reliable. The ones that try to come up with a stat from actual analysis of game footage are better attempts, though.

Of course. Completely agree there. Again, not picking on you here,  QBR is posted within 10 -15 of the game ending. So its not like there is any game fim analysis that goes into that stat.

[mweb08]

Yeah, it would be best if there was a team of people who were really strong at analyzing QB play that did the proper film work and translated that into a stat.

[SportsGuy]

Questioning the playcalling I won't argue with you.  But it was undoubtedly the right decision to go for it.  Field goals don't typically beat Green Bay, and the overall risk/reward is far better in terms of going for it than settling for a FG.  The only time it's really justifiable to not go for when you're a yard or less away from the goal line is maybe in the second half when 3 points significantly changes the score in terms of how many possessions you are up or down by.  Like if you're up by 4 or down by 10 or something.  But in the first half of a game you don't expect to be a low scoring affair?  You go for that every single chance you get. 

You know what else doesn't beat GB? Scoring no points.

In that situation, with how much the offense was failing, you had to take points.

[SportsGuy]

Gb called so many simple plays today.

It's nice to watch offenses that make things look easy.

[bnickle]

You know what else doesn't beat GB? Scoring no points.

In that situation, with how much the offense was failing, you had to take points.

Yeah, I have to take points there. For Dilutis to say 32 out 32 coaches go for it is crazy. Situation. We had just ran 3 straight times. 1st play got 2 and a half to 3 yards to the 2. Then we get stuffed two straight times on 2nd and 3rd down. I mean we had got no push all day to that point in the run game. None. Zero. Zilch and its not like we were on the 1 or inside the 1. It was a good yard and a half. I know before the play I felt we were 60/40 that we wouldn't make it if we run. Its knowing the situation and having a feel for the game and the moment. Harbaugh blew it. Again.

[SportsGuy]

Yeah, I have to take points there. For Dilutis to say 32 out 32 coaches go for it is crazy. Situation. We had just ran 3 straight times. 1st play got 2 and a half to 3 yards to the 2. Then we get stuffed two straight times on 2nd and 3rd down. I mean we had got no push all day to that point in the run game. None. Zero. Zilch and its not like we were on the 1 or inside the 1. It was a good yard and a half. I know before the play I felt we were 60/40 that we wouldn't make it if we run. Its knowing the situation and having a feel for the game and the moment. Harbaugh blew it. Again.

Yea...if we were playing good offense, that changes things.

But we weren't....we were there because Clark got away and made a big play and there was a hold.

Just no way I can agree with going for it there....and, if you do go for it and you do want to run it, how do you call that play out of that formation??

That was so stubborn and stupid. At least get some WR out there and take some people out of the tackle box...do something.

Totally stupid....but, they needed to take the points.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Yep - I'm with Rob and BNick on this one too. I get the logic in going for it - but it was crystal clear we weren't going to pass it, and that we therefore weren't going to make it in. Our run game was completely shut down today.

[mweb08]

Coaches are generally way too conservative IMO. I agree with going for it, but the playcalling over the course of the 4 plays was too conservative.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Coaches are generally way too conservative IMO. I agree with going for it, but the playcalling over the course of the 4 plays was too conservative.

 

Going for it or not is always circumstantial. What made them think we were going to be able to pound it in after the prior 3 plays? THAT is why it's an awful call. Everyone knew they were going to line up and run it... they telegraphed it. That makes it a bad call, pure and simple.

[bnickle]

Yeah, you basically tell the other team what is coming. That's fine. Sometimes, you know when you have an Oline that can actually run block pretty well, you can tell the team what you're going to do and get a yard and a half. Its laughable for us to think with the way we had been running that we could tell a team what we were going to do and then make that yard and a half. We hadn't even been averaging a yard and a half to that point with  Wrs on the field and things not all bunched up down on the goalline. How in the hell do you really think you're getting in there with that playcall.

 

 

 

Worst thing was McCarthy declining the hold on 3rd down. At first Im like, this guy is an idiot. You take the penalty and make it 3rd and goal from the 13 but maybe he was smarter than I thought and was baiting Harbaugh into trying to get the yard and a half on 4th.

 

 

To be clear, I really don't think he was that smart to bait us and he just wasn't thinking but either way Harbaugh fell for the trap. Planned or not.

[mweb08]

Coaches are generally way too conservative IMO. I agree with going for it, but the playcalling over the course of the 4 plays was too conservative.

 
Going for it or not is always circumstantial. What made them think we were going to be able to pound it in after the prior 3 plays? THAT is why it's an awful call. Everyone knew they were going to line up and run it... they telegraphed it. That makes it a bad call, pure and simple.

Don't disagree at all with that. But some think that going for it regardless of the play call was a bad decision. That I disagree with.