312 replies to this topic

[Mike B]

It will be interesting to see what he gets. I believe his statcast data was still solid. Dont think the Astros will opt in on that option.

As far as the Os go, it was a great trade Elias made. Hope Trey gets the ring.

How do we know it was a great trade?  The guy we got is recovering from TJ surgery and we will likely not even see him in the minors until 2024.  So far the only thing, we accomplished is less payroll.

[BobPhelan]

How do we know it was a great trade? The guy we got is recovering from TJ surgery and we will likely not even see him in the minors until 2024. So far the only thing, we accomplished is less payroll.

We also got another SP prospect with great stuff. I think it was a slam dunk trade at the time and even more so a few months later.

[Mackus]

We also got another SP prospect with great stuff. I think it was a slam dunk trade at the time and even more so a few months later.

Eye roll at this description of McDermott. Not a SP prospect. Barely a RP prospect. How good can the stuff be if high-A bats are knocking it around at 23 y/o?

I'm glad we have Johnson and excited to see him when he gets back mid-2023.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Eye roll at this description of McDermott. Not a SP prospect. Barely a RP prospect. How good can the stuff be if high-A bats are knocking it around at 23 y/o?

I'm glad we have Johnson and excited to see him when he gets back mid-2023.

He is a SP right now and he does have good stuff. Clearly the 2nd piece of the deal but nothing to roll eyes at like say Cano in the Lopez deal

[Mike B]

We also got another SP prospect with great stuff. I think it was a slam dunk trade at the time and even more so a few months later.

Elias could trade for 2 dead guys and you would think it was a good trade, but I will admit, I have forgotten who the second guy is.

[Mackus]

He is a SP right now and he does have good stuff. Clearly the 2nd piece of the deal but nothing to roll eyes at like say Cano in the Lopez deal

Agree he's not nothing. But don't think he's valuable enough to be a significant factor in discussing the trade. There is no "oh, well I thought it was a bad trade for Johnson but if you add McDermott in it makes sense..." opinion out there. Maybe there is, but I don't see it with him given his age, level and production.

Hope he confounds expectations and figures out how to harness his stuff.

[BobPhelan]

Elias could trade for 2 dead guys and you would think it was a good trade, but I will admit, I have forgotten who the second guy is.

Nice, thanks…

[BobPhelan]

Eye roll at this description of McDermott. Not a SP prospect. Barely a RP prospect. How good can the stuff be if high-A bats are knocking it around at 23 y/o?

I'm glad we have Johnson and excited to see him when he gets back mid-2023.

Watch him pitch. He has great stuff. More likely a RP prospect but then again so are most pitchers.

[Mackus]

Watch him pitch. He has great stuff. More likely a RP prospect but then again so are most pitchers.

Does it really matter if it's nasty if guys younger than him crush his stuff? Huge Ks but tons of hits and walks and homers, too.

Obviously scouting is more important than the statline in the minors. But the statline isn't irrelevant. Generally, I think that scouting rules out some guys with good stats moreso than it champions guys with bad stats.

He's not nothing, but he does nothing to move the needle on that trade, IMO. It's almost entirely about Johnson. McDermott isn't completely freely replaceable like Cano, like 2035 mentioned, but he's gotta get a lot better before he's worth getting excited about. If you like Johnson for Trey, then you like the trade. If you don't, then you don't. McDermott doesn't tip any scales.

[BobPhelan]

Does it really matter if it's nasty if guys younger than him crush his stuff? Huge Ks but tons of hits and walks and homers, too.

Obviously scouting is more important than the statline in the minors. But the statline isn't irrelevant. Generally, I think that scouting rules out some guys with good stats moreso than it champions guys with bad stats.

He's not nothing, but he does nothing to move the needle on that trade, IMO. It's almost entirely about Johnson. McDermott isn't completely freely replaceable like Cano, like 2035 mentioned, but he's gotta get a lot better before he's worth getting excited about. If you like Johnson for Trey, then you like the trade. If you don't, then you don't. McDermott doesn't tip any scales.

Where are you seeing huge hits against him? Batters haven’t been able to hit .200 against him except when he was with Asheville, the most hitter friendly pitching environment on the east coast. Even then they hit .208 against him. Walks and fluky HR numbers against him in his short sample size in AA (29.2% HR/FB is unsustainably high, 12-16% is the typical range) are the issues. He’s a top 30 prospect in the best system in the sport, he’s a legit prospect as the second piece of the trade. Obviously Johnson was the prize but it’s not fair to hand wave away McDermott when criticizing the Mancini trade. Which might be Elias’ best trade to date but I digress.

[NewMarketSean]

Unfortunately for Trey he’s close to playing himself into a MiL contract. 

[Mackus]

Where are you seeing huge hits against him? Batters haven’t been able to hit .200 against him except when he was with Asheville, the most hitter friendly pitching environment on the east coast. Even then they hit .208 against him. Walks and fluky HR numbers against him in his short sample size in AA (29.2% HR/FB is unsustainably high, 12-16% is the typical range) are the issues. He’s a top 30 prospect in the best system in the sport, he’s a legit prospect as the second piece of the trade. Obviously Johnson was the prize but it’s not fair to hand wave away McDermott when criticizing the Mancini trade. Which might be Elias’ best trade to date but I digress.

I'm looking at his stats. The hits and walks and homers he's allowed.

He doesn't move the needle on that trade at all. You'd consider that trade nearly identically as in good if he weren't a part of it. Not nothing, but barely something. The rankings where he was near the top 10 make no sense to me.

[makoman]

I don't think anyone liked the Iglesias or Bundy deals when they happened so from me they get a little benefit of the doubt that they know what they are targeting. At least enough give the guys more than 2 months in the system. I don't know enough to suggest that it was one of Elias's best trades, and teaching control to minor leaguers with great stuff is not exactly easy, but he sure looks like he has potential.

[BobPhelan]

I don't think anyone liked the Iglesias or Bundy deals when they happened so from me they get a little benefit of the doubt that they know what they are targeting. At least enough give the guys more than 2 months in the system. I don't know enough to suggest that it was one of Elias's best trades, and teaching control to minor leaguers with great stuff is not exactly easy, but he sure looks like he has potential.

Yeah I’m not saying he is some great pitching prospect by any means but context matters. The park he was pitching in for Asheville is a joke. Look at his home/away numbers with them. And after watching most of his starts after the trade I’m very confident he can at least be a solid reliever.

It’s just weird to me how people evaluate these trades. I’m making that trade every time even if Johnson never fully recovers and McDermott flames out.

[BobPhelan]

I don't think anyone liked the Iglesias or Bundy deals when they happened so from me they get a little benefit of the doubt that they know what they are targeting. At least enough give the guys more than 2 months in the system. I don't know enough to suggest that it was one of Elias's best trades, and teaching control to minor leaguers with great stuff is not exactly easy, but he sure looks like he has potential.

Yeah I remember similar thoughts about those trades at the time. I liked them at the time and I see no reason not to be very happy about them today.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yeah I’m not saying he is some great pitching prospect by any means but context matters. The park he was pitching in for Asheville is a joke. Look at his home/away numbers with them. And after watching most of his starts after the trade I’m very confident he can at least be a solid reliever.

It’s just weird to me how people evaluate these trades. I’m making that trade every time even if Johnson never fully recovers and McDermott flames out.

It was very good value for Trey who Os fans overvalue(d). We dont know if it'll end up being one of Elias's better trades but I agree with you that day of the trade it might be his best.

[BobPhelan]

Yeah that’s all I was saying. Nothing to do with Trey’s production afterwards.

[Mike in STL]

Orioles actions at the trade deadline were an absolute joke and I’ve lost a ton of respect for Elias.

Phillies had 2 more wins than the O’s on August 2nd. They were tied for the last WC spot, O’s 1.5 out. The team that added to their roster went to the World Series. The team that sold cause their GM doesn’t believe in them watched from home.

To no one’s surprise when you get rid of a middle of the order bat and an All-Star closer, the offense sputtered in September and Bautista was called on for numerous 4+ out saves, which tired his arm out when it mattered most.

The guy you also traded for practically nothing helped his new team win a World Series.

Here’s a thought. If the Astros are so smart, if they want one of your players, maybe think twice about what you have. Like I don’t think too highly of Dean Kremer. But if the young pitching factory known as the Rays wanted him, I’d have to think, what am I missing? Probably decide I don’t want to make a deal after all or make them overpay. Not send me some broken arm who might get here in 2026, if at all.

The O’s have this off-season to show me something, or I’m done. Winning doesn’t come easy for them, and when success stared them right in the face Elias said no thanks. Well here they are telling us it’s time to build because they were still tearing down the roster in August. So build, or kick rocks.

[BobPhelan]

Lol

[Mike in STL]

Yeah I remember similar thoughts about those trades at the time. I liked them at the time and I see no reason not to be very happy about them today.

Lol