414 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

I also wonder if there is an injury or fear of an injury...ie, a guy like Hunter is being bothered by arm soreness..they think he is going to be fine but aren't 100% sure.

I ask this because the have really changed their minds apparently.

I also think the other day was a huge factor...couldn't use JJ..used BMat and he gave up a walk and had to go to O'Day to finish it up...I think Buck wanted that insurance.

[SportsGuy]

99% LOB this year...pretty sure that's not sustainable.

[Jon Shepherd]

There has to be something wrong with fangraphs system. To have 99% he needs at least 100 base runners in 24 innings. That did not happen.

[Jon Shepherd]

Actually...it is right based on their calculation. I did not know the specific formula.

[JeffLong]

It's true. And I'm the same way in many instances. I love building teams, laying the groundwork, etc. That's really fun. It's more fun to win with developing an organization as a whole than doing it other ways. That said, sometimes that line of thinking by fans can lead to a loss of focus. The focus is always winning. The focus isn't just always stockpiling prospects and being as cute and innovative as possible. 

The O's are legit contenders. More legit than the Giants were at this time last year, that's for sure. 

 

This is where you are fundamentally wrong.

 

The focus should be on stockpiling value, at both the big league level and the minor league level. The best teams do this exceptionally well through a variety of ways (TB, TEX, STL, BOS).

 

What the O's have done here is given away value. I don't care if Delmonico ever plays a game in MLB. He's worth more as a prospect than 20 innings of any reliever. Klaw says it best:

 

If he doesn't become homer-prone as a fly baller in the AL East, he's a fine middle reliever, worth some fraction of a win over the course of the 20 innings he'll provide to the Orioles -- who could use a little bullpen depth -- over the course of the rest of the season.

 

This is also pretty much how I feel about it:

 

The main reason I dislike the move for Baltimore is that giving up a prospect of some value for 20 innings of a middle reliever is poor asset management. Delmonico isn't an elite prospect, but he has a little value because he can hit, has great makeup, and has been familiar in scouting circles since he was a sophomore in high school. 

The Orioles might have saved him to include in a trade for a more significant acquisition, and could have stretched Kevin Gausman out in a long relief role if they wished to take some pressure off their bullpen. For the Brewers, it doesn't justify all the money they've spent on K-Rod over the past two years, but it's a more than adequate return for a middle relief rental.

 

At the end of the day, the team should be looking for ways to add value in any way possible. What you're suggesting, that adding marginal wins in a "playoff season" is the #1 focus is exactly what lead to 15 years of mediocrity. The team said, who cares about value, we need wins now. They then tore apart the minors for those marginal wins and hurt the club's future.

The team should be looking for ways to help the team in 2013, but improve the team in 2014, 2015, etc as well. You do that by adding value. You don't see the Rays moving prospects for a guy that will "put them over the top" like this. In fact, they often do the opposite (e.g. Shields trade).

 

 

Peter, you're a smart guy and I respect the passion you have about all of this. You're coming off incredibly condescending and acting like you know better than everyone else. You don't have to agree with Jeremy or me about the trade and what the team should be doing. You should however treat us with respect even in the midst of an argument. I love this board because we can have conversations like this, but it needs to stay respectful (and that goes for everyone).

[SportsGuy]

Jeff, right now, the focus should be about winning.

[BSLChrisStoner]

This is also pretty much how I feel about it:

 

 

At the end of the day, the team should be looking for ways to add value in any way possible. What you're suggesting, that adding marginal wins in a "playoff season" is the #1 focus is exactly what lead to 15 years of mediocrity. The team said, who cares about value, we need wins now. They then tore apart the minors for those marginal wins and hurt the club's future.

The team should be looking for ways to help the team in 2013, but improve the team in 2014, 2015, etc as well. You do that by adding value. You don't see the Rays moving prospects for a guy that will "put them over the top" like this. In fact, they often do the opposite (e.g. Shields trade).

 

I agree that part of the reason the O's were so inept from '98 - '11, was that they attempted to use band-aids to fix broken legs, and were consumed with trying to get to 81 wins vs. just bottoming out and improving that way.

 

I disagree that adding marginal wins now is the same. You are coming off a playoff season. You are in the playoffs as of today. 1 potential win in a season where you might win 90-93 games, has significantly more value than obtaining Marty Cordova because you want to win 73 games instead of 71.

[JeffLong]

I agree that part of the reason the O's were so inept from '98 - '11, was that they attempted to use band-aids to fix broken legs, and were consumed with trying to get to 81 wins vs. just bottoming out and improving that way.

 

I disagree that adding marginal wins now is the same. You are coming off a playoff season. You are in the playoffs as of today. 1 potential win in a season where you might win 90-93 games, has significantly more value than obtaining Marty Cordova because you want to win 73 games instead of 71.

 

I agree. My point though is that moves like acquiring Thome or K-Rod, who aren't likely to add much value during their time in an O's uniform is not a good use of resources for a team in our position. If we were a team of veterans who were on the downside of their careers then I'd be more on board with this plan.

 

The thing that concerns me is that we're moving guys who are 2-3 years away from helping the MLB club (or being traded at any point in a larger package) for help now. That's great, but when the team is really clicking and guys like Gausman, Bundy, Schoop, E. Rodriguez, are up, there will be little help in the minors and we'll be in the same cycle as before.

 

This team is young & getting better every year. We should be supplementing that with more young talent (a la Tampa Bay), not moving guys that could help for relief pitchers who will throw 20 innings.

 

 

Again, this is my opinion. I get that people are excited that we're "going for it" but IMO that's the same line of thinking that signs Ryan Howard to his contract (albeit on a much smaller scale).

[Mackus]

There is nothing wrong with the concept of trading a prospect for a relief pitcher down the stretch.  I just wish we had traded a prospect I wasn't so high on or traded for a reliever I was higher on (or ideally, both!).

 

I don't think that trading a prospect who the consensus ranks as a fringe top-150 type guy for a reliever that will likely be the 3rd or maybe even 2nd best in our pen over the final third of the season is a bad deal at all.  That sounds like a  completely reasonable transaction.  I just personally hold Delmonico in higher regard than the consensus opinion on him and I think it's probably a tossup as to whether Rodriguez evolves into our 2nd most trusted arm or if he only pitches ok and is our 4th or 5th most trusted arm out there.  That's why I'm not a big fan of the deal, though I totally understand and appreciate why it was made.

[glenn__davis]

Lots of really good discussion.  I initially leaned towards being in favor of the deal, though after reading some of the discussion on Rodriguez' peripherals I've probably soured on it a bit.  I was not super high on Delmonico so I do not mind losing him as much as some other may.

 

Bottom line is that the success of this trade in my eyes will depend on how Rodriguez does for us.  I know that's not a fair way to look at a trade.

 

Really the only argument I'd like to make is that remember that Duquette has supreme confidence in his ability to build a minor league system and develop players.  I do not think he worries too much about losing a guy like Delmonico because he believes he can re-stock that position. 

[You Play to Win the Game]

Well the Brewers obviously were high on Delmonico to trade such a valued commodity for him straight up well before the deadline.

Again, I don't think It's a dumb trade and your quick synopsis of it is valid. I was just personally very high on Nick.

 

But how much of that is due to the fact that he is a decent prospect in a system devoid of much decency at all?

[SportsGuy]

Jeff...I hear your concerns...but many of those concerns go out the window if they make proper decisions in regards to drafting, intl signings and trades. If they can replenish the system by doing those things intelligently, trades like this become after thoughts.

[Mackus]

But how much of that is due to the fact that he is a decent prospect in a system devoid of much decency at all?

 

Hard to say, though I'd like to say very little.  I know I liked him better than E. Rodriguez or Schoop, so even amongst the small subset of legit prospects in our system, I still held Nick in very high regard.

 

I'm far from a talented scout, haven't seen these guys aside from highlight videos, but I don't think that I have any sort of tendency to over-estimate the few good prospects we do have just because they are relatively scarce in our organization.

[Oriole85]

This is where you are fundamentally wrong.

 

The focus should be on stockpiling value, at both the big league level and the minor league level. The best teams do this exceptionally well through a variety of ways (TB, TEX, STL, BOS).

 

What the O's have done here is given away value. I don't care if Delmonico ever plays a game in MLB. He's worth more as a prospect than 20 innings of any reliever. Klaw says it best:

 

 

This is also pretty much how I feel about it:

 

 

At the end of the day, the team should be looking for ways to add value in any way possible. What you're suggesting, that adding marginal wins in a "playoff season" is the #1 focus is exactly what lead to 15 years of mediocrity. The team said, who cares about value, we need wins now. They then tore apart the minors for those marginal wins and hurt the club's future.

The team should be looking for ways to help the team in 2013, but improve the team in 2014, 2015, etc as well. You do that by adding value. You don't see the Rays moving prospects for a guy that will "put them over the top" like this. In fact, they often do the opposite (e.g. Shields trade).

 

 

Peter, you're a smart guy and I respect the passion you have about all of this. You're coming off incredibly condescending and acting like you know better than everyone else. You don't have to agree with Jeremy or me about the trade and what the team should be doing. You should however treat us with respect even in the midst of an argument. I love this board because we can have conversations like this, but it needs to stay respectful (and that goes for everyone).

I love everyone agreeing with Klaw here, of course he says it best when you feel the same way. I'm pretty sure he thought the Feldman deal was fair on both sides, you weren't praising him then. Aren't you overvaluing the O's farm system?

 

You're absolutely right on the Rays, they haven't made it out of the first round since 2008. I know they have their limitations but their lack of in-season moves to upgrade the team has held them back.

 

Would I like the O's to have a better minor league system?, of course. But we have to go with what we have and likely aren't going to be upgrading the team in midseason. Contending teams aren't usually sellers. I'd love for them to draft well and make some international splashes.

 

I know you said that you didn't care if Delmonico played another game and felt the trade chip could've been used elsewhere. That's a fair point. However, these players values drop/rise, not to mention injuries happen. If they held onto him for longer, his value might be even less.

 

And in terms of your marginal wins argument -- I have no idea how this season is going to finish, but it very well could come down to one game. And like Stoner said a big difference between going from 71 to 73 wins versus going from 95 to 96 (which could be the difference of making/missing the playoffs, winning the division instead of the WC, etc)

 

Not sure what it would take for you to think the trade was worth it -- making the playoffs, making the WS, winning it?

[You Play to Win the Game]

Hard to say, though I'd like to say very little.  I know I liked him better than E. Rodriguez or Schoop, so even amongst the small subset of legit prospects in our system, I still held Nick in very high regard.

 

I'm far from a talented scout, haven't seen these guys aside from highlight videos, but I don't think that I have any sort of tendency to over-estimate the few good prospects we do have just because they are relatively scarce in our organization.

 

Fair enough. Didn't mean that as an accusation against you, per se, but I do think a lot of folks are freaking out a little, largely because of how much our system is lacking in depth, IMHO.

 

I cannot argue at all with anyone who isn't pleased with giving up a decent prospect for 2 months of a reliever... I get it, I really do.

 

That said, I come down on the "positive" side of the fence on this deal. I like it. My initial reaction was a gut punch that Delmonico is no longer with us though.

[JeffLong]

I love everyone agreeing with Klaw here, of course he says it best when you feel the same way. I'm pretty sure he thought the Feldman deal was fair on both sides, you weren't praising him then. Aren't you overvaluing the O's farm system?

 

You're absolutely right on the Rays, they haven't made it out of the first round since 2008. I know they have their limitations but their lack of in-season moves to upgrade the team has held them back.

 

Would I like the O's to have a better minor league system?, of course. But we have to go with what we have and likely aren't going to be upgrading the team in midseason. Contending teams aren't usually sellers. I'd love for them to draft well and make some international splashes.

 

I know you said that you didn't care if Delmonico played another game and felt the trade chip could've been used elsewhere. That's a fair point. However, these players values drop/rise, not to mention injuries happen. If they held onto him for longer, his value might be even less.

 

And in terms of your marginal wins argument -- I have no idea how this season is going to finish, but it very well could come down to one game. And like Stoner said a big difference between going from 71 to 73 wins versus going from 95 to 96 (which could be the difference of making/missing the playoffs, winning the division instead of the WC, etc)

 

Not sure what it would take for you to think the trade was worth it -- making the playoffs, making the WS, winning it?

 

Not sure what you're getting at with this. I tend to agree with Klaw probably 90% of the time. With regards to the Feldman trade he didn't really offer any insight either way... http://insider.espn....ade-for-orioles. I don't think I'm overvaluing the O's farm system, I think that I'm trying to understand what value these guys can really bring to the club over less than half of a season.

 

I couldn't disagree more that the Rays lack of mid-season moves is what's hurting them in the playoffs. I think the Rays have a great team and anything can happen when you're in a short series. The playoffs tend to see suppressed offense, mitigating their greatest strength which is the depth of their rotation.

 

With regards to Delmonico's value, you're kind of begging the question here. Of course values change. He could move up to AA by next season and start raking and become a top 50 prospect. Goes both ways.

 

To your last point - the outcome of the playoffs does not justify the trade or not. Winning the WS has nothing to do with this trade. The trade would be justified if the value K-Rod provides the club in the season (and possibly the playoffs) is greater than what Delmonico is worth to other teams. IMO it will be incredibly difficult for him to do that.

[Matt_P]

The Orioles reportably refused to trade Delmonico three weeks ago. I wonder if one reason why they were willing to trade him now is because they signed Alvarez to a deal for 800k. If DD is willing and able to spend a few million in the international market to get a few good prospects becomes more palatable.

[Oriole85]

Fair enough. Didn't mean that as an accusation against you, per se, but I do think a lot of folks are freaking out a little, largely because of how much our system is lacking in depth, IMHO.

 

I cannot argue at all with anyone who isn't pleased with giving up a decent prospect for 2 months of a reliever... I get it, I really do.

 

That said, I come down on the "positive" side of the fence on this deal. I like it. My initial reaction was a gut punch that Delmonico is no longer with us though.

There's always going to be freaking out with every trade, every time -- look how many people freaked out on not getting "real" prospects back in the Koji deal? And that trade has gone down as the most one-sided in baseball of the past 2-3 years. JJ Hardy might be the exception since it was salary dump and the only way for us to really lose that one was if he was chronically injured(which was a big concern).

[Tucker Blair]

I kinda hope the O's make a more significant trade. I can only imagine how wild that trade thread will get!

[Oriole85]

Not sure what you're getting at with this. I tend to agree with Klaw probably 90% of the time. With regards to the Feldman trade he didn't really offer any insight either way... http://insider.espn....ade-for-orioles. I don't think I'm overvaluing the O's farm system, I think that I'm trying to understand what value these guys can really bring to the club over less than half of a season.

 

I couldn't disagree more that the Rays lack of mid-season moves is what's hurting them in the playoffs. I think the Rays have a great team and anything can happen when you're in a short series. The playoffs tend to see suppressed offense, mitigating their greatest strength which is the depth of their rotation.

 

With regards to Delmonico's value, you're kind of begging the question here. Of course values change. He could move up to AA by next season and start raking and become a top 50 prospect. Goes both ways.

 

To your last point - the outcome of the playoffs does not justify the trade or not. Winning the WS has nothing to do with this trade. The trade would be justified if the value K-Rod provides the club in the season (and possibly the playoffs) is greater than what Delmonico is worth to other teams. IMO it will be incredibly difficult for him to do that.

I believe he said on Twitter it was fair to both sides, clearly a difference of opinion from yours in that 10% I suppose.

 

If your argument is anything can happen in a short series, are you saying teams shouldn't upgrade to win those short series? The better team should still win regardless of the amount. I wouldn't say it's a 50/50 proposition every time. I'd say for the short series, having a great 1-2 punch is very important, you don't need depth as much, there we can agree even if we have different conclusions. After that, you just need to win one more game and having that ace should help there.

 

We're in agreement on values, going both ways.

 

If K-Rod saved the 7th game of the WS in place of an injured or inefective Jim Johnson (complete hypothetical I know), that doesn't change your feelings on this?