The problem is, the same can be said about Betimet, who is worse than Reynolds.
Reynolds is the more valuable hitter with higher OBP and more power.
At least Betemit can be platooned with Tolleson and doesn't need to be out there every night.
Posted 20 June 2012 - 11:15 AM
The problem is, the same can be said about Betimet, who is worse than Reynolds.
Posted 20 June 2012 - 11:24 AM
I get the guy has been better there defensively, and Buck doesn't trust him at 3B, but right now, he should be our 3B man because he's making the lineup weaker than it needs to be and he's the best we've got in terms of a well rounded player at the position.
Tolleson and Andino can't hit enough to play there. Betemit is clearly worse than Reynolds there defensively.
And by keeping Reynolds at 1B, Buck is keeping Nick Johnson on the bench full time because Chris Davis also has to play. And in interleague play at the NL parks, now there is no DH so both Davis and Johnson have to sit or Davis has to play a position he's not familiar with and his offense suffers as a result.
And for 3B you now either have to play Betemit at 3B and/or bench Betemit and Johnson to play the likes of Andino or Tolleson who can't hit.
The solution without any trades is sending Reynolds back to 3B and just living with his below average defense, or if you absolutely can't you move Reynolds to the OF so that 1B can be freed up to play the 1B/DH guys we have and keep them in the lineup.
Reynolds' bat isn't good enough by itself, nor is his defense at 1B to justify weakening the entire lineup just to avoid him playing 3B or the OF, and if Buck doesn't move him around, the Orioles are going to find it harder and harder to score runs.
Posted 20 June 2012 - 11:31 AM
Also as no conicidence, the Orioles have also been shutout 4 times with Reynolds playing 1B and were not shutout once with him at 3B.
Posted 20 June 2012 - 11:36 AM
I think Reynolds has looked better at 1B than Davis this season, although Davis had a much better defensive reputation coming into the year.
Davis should be in the lineup nearly every day. Reynolds should be in it most days, occasionally taking off for Betemit or Johnson or somebody else to have a day as the DH.
Also, Reynolds has a .277/.385/.492 slash line since coming off the DL, and that includes the 1-15 (w/ 2 BB) slump he's been in on this road trip. Anyone who thinks he's hurting the Orioles offense hasn't been paying close enough attention. You can't bench productive players after a tiny slump.
Posted 20 June 2012 - 11:48 AM
SG, I do grok what you're saying, I really do... but at the same time, I think everybody (with the possible exception of Trea) would say that Trea has some things to work on... and unlike most folks (including you), I know of no evidence that Trea is truly cognizant of the fact that he has room to improve in specific ways...And you don't have to troll him everytime he makes a point either.
It goes both ways, so let's just see what he has to say instead of calling him out for no reason.
His general point is correct. We are a better offensive team with Reynolds at third and I doubt the defense is worse off either.
"The only change is that baseball has turned Paige from a second-class citizen to a second-class immortal." - Satchel Paige
Posted 20 June 2012 - 11:53 AM
Posted 20 June 2012 - 11:59 AM
I don't know how anybody could watch the way Reynolds played 3B this year, after working all offseason to try and improve from his defense in 2011 which was unacceptable, and think that he should be a primary option at 3B going forward. I was very much in favor of giving him an opportunity to show that 2011 was a fluke defensively, but he showed the exact opposite. And while it wasn't a huge sample, the degree of his struggles were so severe that it essentially mandated an end to his time as the primary 3B.I agree the solution needs to be getting somebody at 3B that can hit and play defense, but for the time being the best guy on our roster to do that is Mark Reynolds. And the best way to make the lineup as productive as possible is to free up 1B for a 1B/DH bat and keep Tolleson and Andino on the bench.
Posted 20 June 2012 - 12:13 PM
I would consider giving him a very occasional start at 3B, maybe one every other week or so, and if that goes well, slowly increase his time there. But I think just throwing him right back to 3B would likely be disastrous.
Posted 20 June 2012 - 12:23 PM
And I think everyone would say the same about you and many others, including myself.SG, I do grok what you're saying, I really do... but at the same time, I think everybody (with the possible exception of Trea) would say that Trea has some things to work on... and unlike most folks (including you), I know of no evidence that Trea is truly cognizant of the fact that he has room to improve in specific ways...
I get what you are doing but we are trying the best we can to avoid this message board drama bs.So, I don't think it's fair to reduce it to trolling, it is an honest effort to help him notice in the actual moment rather than just having people pile on in general... now, you might say that it could be done just as well via PM, but I don't believe that, due to the way that Trea is very capable of honoring certain things that are publicly quite visible...
And as a mod(along with Chris and Greg), we will monitor the situation for EVERYONE. Personally, I am glad Trea is posting here and hope he continues to do so.(that is all... I don't intend to make this a big thing... but neither do I wanna see a repeat here of what helped make things suck at the other place... and I think standing aside and letting it repeat itself without comment is just plain dumb...)
Posted 20 June 2012 - 12:27 PM
Yeah... but each of us can admit it... which makes a huge diff. I truly don't know if Trea gets it. Do you?And I think everyone would say the same about you and many others, including myself.
"The only change is that baseball has turned Paige from a second-class citizen to a second-class immortal." - Satchel Paige
Posted 20 June 2012 - 12:28 PM
Pretty easy...the other options are worse than him.I don't know how anybody could watch the way Reynolds played 3B this year, after working all offseason to try and improve from his defense in 2011 which was unacceptable, and think that he should be a primary option at 3B going forward.
Posted 20 June 2012 - 12:31 PM
1) I have no issue with anything he has said. Just because you may not like it doesn't mean its a big deal. There are people that may be having an issue with how you are handling things as well. I could easily say I see a lot of your old habits too. But that's not the case because we(the mods) aren't going down that road with people. Everyone has a clean slate.Yeah... but each of us can admit it... which makes a huge diff. I truly don't know if Trea gets it. Do you?
As for the mods handling it... well, that's fine in general... but so far I have seen Trea be up to the same old tricks with no sign that he groks what his issues are. Have the mods acted to help prevent a repeat of what happened before? If so, you don't have to tell me what that might be, I'm just asking if it happened, that's all...
Posted 20 June 2012 - 12:31 PM
I also suggested perhaps trying Reynolds in RF when Markakis went down. I suspect that the O's didn't have him out there at all in ST, even in drills, trying to get him as much time as possible at 3B to recover from last season. Davis, apparently, got some time there and that's why we saw him out in RF. If they've officially decided to never try Reynolds at 3B any more, then I would definitely be interested in seeing what he can do in the outfield, but you don't just throw him out there during a game to find out. You work on it during practice and see if he can handle it. I suspect that he would be able to, given that he's pretty athletic and speed and quickness aren't his weaknesses.How about the OF? What about putting him out there? I know Pearce has done pretty well, but Reynolds could get some time there to give the other 1B/DH bats a spot in the lineup.
Posted 20 June 2012 - 12:39 PM
Davis is in the lineup either way (save for the NL parks, which is so irregular that it's not really worth a ton of discussion). So the big offensive dropoff would be from whomever Reynolds is bumping at 1B/DH to whomever is replacing Reynolds at 3B. I don't think there is any question that Johnson/Betemit are better hitters than Andino/Tolleson, although against LHP I'd take Tolleson over all the rest. So already we have a strong argument for a Tolleson/Reynolds combo at 3B/1B at least against LHP.Pretty easy...the other options are worse than him.
Trea is right. By having Reynolds in there, you have a weaker bat in the lineup...and the defense being played isn't really that good that it is making a bigger difference than the other bat potentially could.
Posted 20 June 2012 - 04:09 PM
Not sure why you said that. I don't see anybody (including me) having any issues with Chris, Greg or you. Rather, you took exception to me pointing out to Trea the opportunity he has here, and you basically told me to not do that.Now, if anyone has any other issues take it up with Chris, Greg or myself in a PM and let's get back to talking about how we don't have CIers who can catch and hit the ball.
"The only change is that baseball has turned Paige from a second-class citizen to a second-class immortal." - Satchel Paige
Posted 20 June 2012 - 04:14 PM
"The only change is that baseball has turned Paige from a second-class citizen to a second-class immortal." - Satchel Paige
Posted 20 June 2012 - 05:20 PM
I know you don't like defensive stats, but that's really the only way to quantify what you're asking for.Here's one thing I don't know: How much damage has #12 done at 3B?
I ask in part because I know Earl would hide bats that had no glove over there, and he said he did it simply because 3B had the fewest number of chances. All that was based on his index cards and his Apple II. Does modern tracking data support him on that?
The general tone here is that the O's just can't afford to play Reynolds at 3B, but is that really true? I'm asking because I'm curious. If it was me, I'd play him there, but I'm not saying I'm right to think that.,,
Posted 20 June 2012 - 05:30 PM
OK, thanks...I know you don't like defensive stats, but that's really the only way to quantify what you're asking for.
Last year Reynold's UZR/150 was -30. That means over the course of a season, he would cost the team 30 runs (or 3 wins) with his glove alone compared to an average 3B. That's monumentally bad.
This year, it was a very small sample of only 15 or so games, but he was down to -45, which is absolutely unheard of (although the SSS makes it not terribly meaningful). I don't think he would have continued to be that bad if we kept him there, but I do think he would be roughly as bad as he was last season, which was an unacceptable level.
"The only change is that baseball has turned Paige from a second-class citizen to a second-class immortal." - Satchel Paige
Posted 20 June 2012 - 08:35 PM
Posted 20 June 2012 - 08:41 PM
That's pretty much what the stats are saying. It was only ~3 weeks for this season, and even the folks who like defensive stats admit that defensive stats require at least twice as big of a sample as offensive stats to be reliable, so that was really just a slumpy couple of weeks more than a definitive trend, although I think both his numbers from last year and his even worse numbers from the brief time at 3B this year matched what the eyes see.So, are the results you reported saying that his D cost the O's ~3 games last year, which would have turned a .500 team, into a 78-84 team... and that he was on a pace to cost the team ~4.5 games this year, which would turn a .500 team into something like a 77-85 or 76-86 team? Or do I have that wrong?
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