353 replies to this topic

[RShack]

He's playing like someone who wants a job next year, despite his recent success, I don't think you pick-up the option but he's making the choice harder.

I don't think you decide until you see how his season turns out in the end...

[fan4life]

I think he's shown the ability is there to be an above average defensive 1b. So then you have to evaluate whether he can put an entire season together offensively. I'm a Reynolds fan and really hope he's back with us. I'm pretty confident that if we let him go, he'll out-produce whoever we have at 1b next year.

[SportsGuy]

I still would like to find a long term solution at first in the offseason.

[Oriole85]

I don't think you decide until you see how his season turns out in the end...

Yeah obviously not, but does 4 bad months outweigh 2 good months?

[SportsGuy]

Over/Under 24.5 homers for Reynolds this year.

[Slappy]

Reynolds is at .791 on the season now. His OBP of .351 would be a career best for him. Also, not mentioned as much, his PA/K ratio is 3.32 this year, compared to 3.16 last year and 3.05 for his career. His walk rate is 14.4% this year, up from 12.1% last year and 11.9% on his career. The "advanced metrics" still have him below average at 1B, but I've never believed defensive metrics as gospel (go look at McCutcheon's for example).

Currently he's middle of the pack for AL first basemen offensively:

Fielder .926
Puljos .883
Konerko .869
Moreland .844
Teix .813
Gonzalez (pre-trade) .812
Mourneau .799
Reynolds .791
Lind .684
Hosmer .678
Pena .669
Kotchman .632
Smoak .577

I think the guy is a decent-to-solid option at 1B for 2013 and don't believe $11 million would be a drastic overpayment. It would be nice to get him cheaper.

I would worry about the club looking for a "young, long-term" solution, especially an unproven one. One factor in our success this year is not using the major league club as a farm team like we have in the past. It's very risky - you could very easily end up with someone like Smoak or Hosmer or Kotchman which would be devastating.

[RShack]

Over/Under 24.5 homers for Reynolds this year.

Over, if he stays healthy...

[JeremyStrain]

A couple interesting things to look at. Of course first off, his option is for $11m next year, but if declined, he is NOT a FA, he is eligible for arbitration, and based on his $3.5m salary previously, that number could come in much lower than 11m.

Also, his power and walk numbers are higher when he plays 3B, but barely off from 1B, while they suffer REALLY bad at DH, much higher K% and lower BB%. He's actually played in 80 games as a 1B, and made 5 errors, which would project to 10 errors in a full season. He's tied with Pujols, Fielder and Hosmer for FD% by a 1B, which puts him right at or outside the top 10 1B in MLB each year going back 4-5 years. Defense isn't the problem at 1B, and he's hitting for a higher avg. at 1B than anywhere else for his career, including .242 for this season, which isn't killing us either.

All in all, unless you are going to find an elite top 10 1B, I think Reynolds will do just fine there for the cost (which will be less than $10m if extended or arb.)

[RShack]

Yeah obviously not, but does 4 bad months outweigh 2 good months?

That depends entirely on how they shake out in total. It's just a matter of streaky in the extreme.
I'm just glad he's not doing what Dunn did last year...

[RShack]

He's been better-than-good at 1B for a while now. We don't need seasonal numbers on that, we need post-AS numbers on that.

Unless he forgot how to hit, the 1st four months were just a really, really bad slump.
The last while tells us he didn't forget how to hit... or, if he did, he just remembered again.

The main thing I wanna see is how close to his annual average numbers he can catch up to... and the main reason for that is not about contracts, it's just to see...

If he can be hot enough down the stretch to close that gap a lot, then I'm completely happy getting a bargain on him to play 1B next year.

Unless he suddenly tanks again, I think the main thing about what he's done this season re: next season are:
1. He's proved he can be a better-than-good 1B.
2. His 4-month slump helped the O's arb numbers a lot.

[SammyBirdland]

How could anyone not want to extend this hottie?

[RShack]

How could anyone not want to extend this hottie?

The guy behind him has your shirt on...

[RichardZ]

Defintely go into next offseason with the idea of declining the option and offering arbitration. Under this scenario, he's not making 11M, probably not close. If you are interested in a multi year contract, you use this scenario to offer him a 3/24 type contract and see if he bites. If not, keep him for the year, and hope he has a big one in his walk year.

[fishteacher]

I really like Mark Reynolds, as long as he stays parked at 1B. I don't think there are any better options in the near future (that we honestly have a good shot of obtaining). I'd like to see us offer him a three year deal.

Am I crazy? What kind of contract would you offer, if any?

I feel like I don't even KNOW YOU anymore!!!!! hahahaha!!!!!

[BSLChrisStoner]

What a stretch from Reynolds. Talk about scorching.

[Chris B]

He might hit 30.

[Icterus galbula]

[BobPhelan]

I love the confidence. Hes bringing alot to the team besides his bat too. Seems like a great clubhouse guy and of course his stellar defense of late.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I love the confidence. Hes bringing alot to the team besides his bat too. Seems like a great clubhouse guy and of course his stellar defense of late.

That was some great swag right there.

[NewMarketSean]

I wouldn't be surprised to see him get plunked tonight.