353 replies to this topic

[SportsGuy]

And btw, Arrieta could also be the late inning guy and Hunter more in the Ayala role. That's fine too.

[Mackus]

Arrieta I'm on board with. I think his stuff is excellent and that his problem is overthinking in between starts. I think not knowing when is going to come in to pitch would help keep him fresh (at least until he gains his confidence back) and that his stuff and velocity all would play very well in the bullpen. Could totally see him being a dominant late-inning guy by the middle of next season. Not sure I'd want to bank on that and trade away Johnson or Strop, but I think it'd be an defensible move considering we've got other reliable guys to work the 7th and 8th if Arrieta isn't quite as good as hoped (Lindstrom, O'Day, maybe even Patton).

[SportsGuy]

Arrieta I'm on board with. I think his stuff is excellent and that his problem is overthinking in between starts. I think not knowing when is going to come in to pitch would help keep him fresh (at least until he gains his confidence back) and that his stuff and velocity all would play very well in the bullpen. Could totally see him being a dominant late-inning guy by the middle of next season. Not sure I'd want to bank on that and trade away Johnson or Strop, but I think it'd be an defensible move considering we've got other reliable guys to work the 7th and 8th if Arrieta isn't quite as good as hoped (Lindstrom, O'Day, maybe even Patton).

The problem with JJ is that everyone assumes he is going to be very good because he has been the last few years.

But he has had recent injury issues...He has been mediocre in the past and he does have a profile of a pitcher where you could see him have an off year. BTW, I am not saying he won't be good or get hurt next year..im just not closing the book on that possibility.

5-7 million could be better spent elsewhere, especially since we have cheaper arms to do a similar job.

Look, if the Orioles were just going to go out and spend 120 million on the payroll and fix the areas of need, that's fine..keep all of these guys.

But why on earth anyone would expect that is beyond me...so, going off of the way it has always been, we shouldn't expect much more than 90M being spent on the payroll. To significantly upgrade this roster(which they need to do despite the record), they need to get rid of payroll somewhere.

[Mackus]

I understand completely not wanting to spend $5-7M on a closer if we've only got a $90M payroll.

On the other hand, we're contending this year, and the mindset has to be that we will also contend next year. A closer is a far more important entity on a contending team than a non-contending one.

If we could get something of obvious value, I'm open to considering a Johnson trade. I would prefer it be for a MLB piece that is reliable, though. Involved in a package (possibly three-way deal) for Headley. Or maybe for a starting pitcher. Just going out and getting Belt for him isn't enough for me. I like Belt's potential, but he's never going to be a big power-hitting 1B. He should end up with a very solid average and OBP, but the slugging and power aren't really there. Plus, I'm a big fan of the Davis/Betemit/Reynolds on a cheaper deal platoon at 1B and DH for next season. I think that can be a good option at least for the short term.

Since we do have an option that could step in and close next year in Strop, I'm more open to dealing JJ. Especially since we've also got other options (Arrieta) that we think could eventually slide into the bullpen and be a major asset there as well. I'd just really need to get something with immediate tangible value, not just a couple solid prospects. The Oakland trade for Redick isn't a perfect example, but it's a decent one. Get something that can help you right away. If we can turn Johnson into our starting 3B or LF or #3 starter, sign me up (depending on the specifics, of course).

[SportsGuy]

On the other hand, we're contending this year, and the mindset has to be that we will also contend next year. A closer is a far more important entity on a contending team than a non-contending one.

100% agree with that.

But I also think this team has much larger short and long term needs than a good closer..even if they are a contender.

[Chris B]

I just got around to watching the highlights of Friday's game where Reynolds was ejected.

My lord that was just horrific umpiring.

[RShack]

What poor-timing-for-Mark to him to have an off-year. IMO, any multi-year contract he's likely to get right after this year is gonna be a bargain for whoever he signs it with.

If we imagine Reynolds is just having an off-year (everybody does)... and assume the next couple years will be pretty much like the last couple years before this one... and if we imagine he's reliable at 1B (which I think he is)... then what is a guy like that worth these days?

(I need help with this because I don't keep up with the finer details of salary and payroll.)

[SportsGuy]

What poor-timing-for-Mark to him to have an off-year. IMO, any multi-year contract he's likely to get right after this year is gonna be a bargain for whoever he signs it with.

If we imagine Reynolds is just having an off-year (everybody does)... and assume the next couple years will be pretty much like the last couple years before this one... and if we imagine he's reliable at 1B (which I think he is)... then what is a guy like that worth these days?

(I need help with this because I don't keep up with the finer details of salary and payroll.)

Well his WAR last year was .3, which means he is worth less a 2 million.

Now, his defensive stats would likely be better at first but the positional value is down.

For him to be worth 7+ million, he is going to have hit 250+ so that his OBP can be in the 370ish range..he is also going to have become average defensively at first.

[BSLChrisStoner]

2 bombs for Reynolds tonight, as well as several great plays at 1st.

All of a sudden, his OPS is up .760. Maybe he will finish near his .806 career average?

[RShack]

2 bombs for Reynolds tonight, as well as several great plays at 1st.

All of a sudden, his OPS is up .760. Maybe he will finish near his .806 career average?

His dingers looked like honest-to-God Reynolds dingers... none of that 2nd or 3rd row stuff... the 2nd one was on a pitch that was high-ish and way inside... I have no idea how he got the right part of the bat on that one...

[Mike B]

2 bombs for Reynolds tonight, as well as several great plays at 1st.

All of a sudden, his OPS is up .760. Maybe he will finish near his .806 career average?

There is still time for Reynolds and a few others to save their season. For the first time in a long time a late season push will not be looked at as number padding. It will be looked at as clutch play with the play offs on the line. September and October is the time when players become baseball heroes. Go get it Mark, there is time.

[SportsGuy]

Be nice if he could get really hot...he could carry this offense for a week or 2.

[Mark Carver]

And as Jayson Stark of ESPN Tweets...

Last player before Mark Reynolds to have 2 multi-HR games in one series vs. Yankees at Yankee Stadium? David Ortiz in July 2003.

http://es.twitter.com/jaysonst

[RShack]

I wonder how close to his annual average HR num be can get... for his career it's 34...

Also, if you have a bat handy, do this for me... grab it and pretend you're batting... and then imagine a pitch that's high in the zone and 4 inches inside... please tell me it's possible to hit the snot out of that pitch... as best I can tell, it's made for sawing off bats, not for hitting a ball 15 rows deep...

[Mark Carver]

Mark Reynolds over a 29 game period of August 1st to Sep 4th - 295/422/642/1.065 with 9 home runs and 21 RBI.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Reynolds' OPS is up to .791 (career .812). Do you now expect Reynolds to be the 1st baseman to begin '13?

[SportsGuy]

Reynolds' OPS is up to .791 (career .812). Do you now expect Reynolds to be the 1st baseman to begin '13?

You can't pay him more than 5-7 million.

[JeremyStrain]

Well his WAR last year was .3, which means he is worth less a 2 million.

Now, his defensive stats would likely be better at first but the positional value is down.

For him to be worth 7+ million, he is going to have hit 250+ so that his OBP can be in the 370ish range..he is also going to have become average defensively at first.

What's his WAR per game since he moved to 1B?

[Oriole85]

He's playing like someone who wants a job next year, despite his recent success, I don't think you pick-up the option but he's making the choice harder.

[SammyBirdland]

He's playing like someone who wants a job next year, despite his recent success, I don't think you pick-up the option but he's making the choice harder.

I don't see any better options available for next season, at least for guys that we would be likely to be able to get. Maybe a trade...