153 replies to this topic

[Mike in STL]

And do you know how much those guys will cost?

I know the Os won't spend. But since we're stuck with Flaherty, people are being very optimistic about his production. In WAR, he is the replacement player.

[SportsGuy]

I know the Os won't spend. But since we're stuck with Flaherty, people are being very optimistic about his production. In WAR, he is the replacement player.

Not true.  he was a 1.4 WAR guy last year, in basically a half season worth of at bats.

 

The Oliver prediction system has him at 2.2 in 2014.

 

That sounds about right.

 

He isn't ideal but he makes more sense than the second baseman who were FA this offseason(outside of Cano) and is hopefully a placeholder for Schoop.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Nice write-up Patrick. I like Flaherty myself. He should be fun to watch this year and I'd like to see what he can do with 450 AB's or so platooning at 2b. Kid really has a nice looking swing ...especially when he connects. I can see why some of the scouts like him. The defense looks solid. 

 

That said, he really needs to cut down on the K's. Changeups seem to eat him up badly. It did seem like he was starting to make better adjustments later in the year, but I bet the kid never saw so many good changeups in the minors, in addition to all the deep count ones he has seen at the ML level so far. I think he has a good batting eye as well and you could see an improved walk rate/OBP. In addition to adjusting to the the changeups he might need to change his two strike approach (try and make more contact) as well. I also wouldn't be shocked if he could handle LHP reasonably well sometime down the line, but we probably need to focus on making some incremental improvements this year.   

[aurelius]

They just need to give RF a season to see what he can do. I think he can be a lot better than 700 OPS. I'm not being an optimist. I think he's a better player than that. We'll just have to revisit this at the appropriate time because only time will tell.

[Mackus]

I know the Os won't spend. But since we're stuck with Flaherty, people are being very optimistic about his production. In WAR, he is the replacement player.

 

His bat is (often times) replacement level.  His glove is not.  I also think there is some upside with the bat.  Both times he started finally getting hot when he was playing, he stopped playing shortly thereafter.  He finished hot in 2012, but then the season ended.  He was starting to hit in 2013 as well, but then Roberts came back and he stopped playing frequently.

 

He was brutally terrible with the bat at the outset of 2013.  But I think he can be better than that (he finished at 683 last year, with the awful first couple months).  The average OPS at 2B is only about 710.  So even something in the mid to upper 600s, while generally really bad, isn't that bad for 2B.

[Mike in STL]

I see what you guys mean. Flaherty just doesnt impress me. Except for his quiet power. A couple of his homers have been monster shots. I think the best case scenario for the Os is Schoop to have a huge start an unseat Flaherty by June 1. Then continue earning that spot. Who knows. I'm trying not to get too hung up on the WAR thing. Is 1.4 good? Kakes was -0.1, and I'd take him over Flaherty everyday.

[Mackus]

Quick reference for WAR:

http://www.fangraphs...brary/misc/war/

Scrub 	0-1 WAR
Role Player 	1-2 WAR
Solid Starter 	2-3 WAR
Good Player 	3-4 WAR
All-Star 	4-5 WAR
Superstar 	5-6 WAR
MVP 	6+ WAR

 

Markakis was abysmal last season, but typically is more in the 1.5-2.5 WAR range.  The defensive metrics have hated his defense though, they say he's a win to win and a half below average in RF.  If you think he's an average defender, then he's a 3-4 WAR guy, and even higher if you think he's above average in RF.

 

The offensive aspect and positional and replacement adjustments of WAR are pretty well agreed upon.  The defense is what really is still a fairly big area of contention.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I see what you guys mean. Flaherty just doesnt impress me. Except for his quiet power. A couple of his homers have been monster shots. I think the best case scenario for the Os is Schoop to have a huge start an unseat Flaherty by June 1. Then continue earning that spot. Who knows. I'm trying not to get too hung up on the WAR thing. Is 1.4 good? Kakes was -0.1, and I'd take him over Flaherty everyday.

WAR is positionally adjusted. Flaherty has about a 1 WAR head start on Nick just by the positional adjustment between 2nd base and RF. So, Flaherty has an approximate 1 WAR head start on Nick for 2014 without even taking the field. Then figure Flaherty was rated a plus defender at second base while Nick was rated below average. After all that, their offense wasn't really all that far off last year. 

 

WAR is a counting stat. Considering the games Flaherty played, a 1.4 WAR prorated to 162 games would be about average to maybe a little above for a starter. Nick could have closed the WAR gap by virtue of more games played, but he'd have to get his value into positive territory to do that.  

[bnickle]

It's funny . I think Flaherty can be underrated offensively and overrated defensively. I don't buy that he is a great defender. Solid yes, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if you were to see a rather big downgrade in his defensive numbers this year.

On the other hand, I think he has close to .750 OPS potential offensively.

[SportsGuy]

Am I the only one that saw the title of this thread and immediately heard George Constanza yelling "Summer of George"?

[BSLChrisStoner]

Am I the only one that saw the title of this thread and immediately heard George Constanza yelling "Summer of George"?

Yeah, Patrick was roughly 7 yrs old when that episode first aired. FML.

[McNulty]

Am I the only one that saw the title of this thread and immediately heard George Constanza yelling "summer of George"?

 

I guess Dan Duquette is spending his entire winter watching the White Shadow and decompressing (decomposing).

[PatrickDougherty]

Yeah, Patrick was roughly 7 yrs old when that episode first aired. FML.

Doesn't matter, I still crush Seinfeld DVDs.

[SportsGuy]

Doesn't matter, I still crush Seinfeld DVDs.

As you should!

[BSLChrisStoner]

Flaherty seems to be in a good position to begin the year as the everyday 2nd baseman. His defense improved in ’13, and he continues to show a bit of pop. He figures to get a couple months of everyday ab’s at the minimum. How productive he is (along with how Weeks performs in his opportunities, and what Jonathan Schoop is doing at AAA), will determine if he lasts the year as the starter.

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: Flaherty trying to win job at 2nd base
http://www.masnsport...econd-base.html

[BSLChrisStoner]

Throwing error for Flaherty last night.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Started the year 0 for 15... now 5 for his last 15... Overall, 1 bb vs. 9 k's.

Double in the 9th tonight started the O's rally.

Nice play at SS yesterday.

[BSLChrisStoner]

2 for 5, with a homer (his 6th) and a triple today. 

The player he's always kind of reminded me of was Kelly Johnson. Now they are teammates.

 

Season: .200 baa, 6 hr's 24 rbi, 14 bb's, 52 k's, 8 doubles, 1 triple, .594 OPS

[BSLChrisStoner]

Camden Chat: Ryan Flaherty, the 2014 Orioles' perfectly adequate utility infielder

http://www.camdencha...4-ryan-flaherty