93 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

How close do we think Snell gets to Fried and Burnes

[BSLChrisStoner]

How close do we think Snell gets to Fried and Burnes

 

https://forum.baltim...-the-contracts/

[dude]

I'm not interested in giving him 7 or 8 years, just to spread out the total dollars. 

 

Everyone would want him for 3-4 years. 
Pump up the AAV over a max of 5 years. 

The O's can certainly do that given the limited payroll obligations they have elsewhere, even as some get into their arb years.

 

You have to describe what your words mean with a number.

 

The 7 or 8 years isn't about spreading out the contract, the 10 or 11 or 12 is.

 

MLB contracts are still guaranteed, so what are you going to give him in an AAV that's going to create incentive over total dollars?

[BSLChrisStoner]

You have to describe what your words mean with a number.

 

The 7 or 8 years isn't about spreading out the contract, the 10 or 11 or 12 is.

 

MLB contracts are still guaranteed, so what are you going to give him in an AAV that's going to create incentive over total dollars?

 

4 years $160M, with a 5th year that vests is what I'd like to offer.
 

Maybe you'd talk me into just offering 5 $200M if I knew what the O's projected their spending to be in 2029.

 

His last 3 years, his average fWAR has been an average of 3.9, and FanGraphs says the dollar conversion (dollar per war) was an average of $31.4M per year. 

 

He turned 30 on October 22nd. 

Presumably his next 3,4,5 years aren't going to be better than his last 3 years. 

 

So in a lot of ways, what I'm suggesting is max overpay. 

But given the overall complexion of the current O's roster, I'd do that over the next 4-5 years, mainly for '25, '26, '27.

[dude]

4 years $160M, with a 5th year that vests is what I'd like to offer.

 

...and you can do that.  He says no.  Now what.

 

He certainly says no out of the gate.  If you want to leave that out there all offseason hoping he somehow doesn't have a market with the Mets (/other) and that winds up being his most interesting offer in March, ok, but he hasn't worked out, he's disappointed in having to take your contract and you haven't done anything else waiting on his market to collapse.

 

Maybe you'd talk me into just offering 5 $200M if I knew what the O's projected their spending to be in 2029.

 

Once you go to 5/200....do you understand that 8/250 is actually a better deal for the team?

 

I think the chance of him taking 4/160, 5/200, 7/245 or 8/250 before March are all 0%....so my answer is don't worry about it, take the QO and go figure out Castillo and/or Gallen.

[BSLChrisStoner]

...and you can do that.  He says no.  Now what.

 

He certainly says no out of the gate.  If you want to leave that out there all offseason hoping he somehow doesn't have a market with the Mets (/other) and that winds up being his most interesting offer in March, ok, but he hasn't worked out, he's disappointed in having to take your contract and you haven't done anything else waiting on his market to collapse.

 

 

Once you go to 5/200....do you understand that 8/250 is actually a better deal for the team?

 

I think the chance of him taking 4/160, 5/200, 7/245 or 8/250 before March are all 0%....so my answer is don't worry about it, take the QO and go figure out Castillo and/or Gallen.

 

If he doesn't take the contract you want him to take, you move on.*
You don't just keep offering him more, when he's already on the wrong side of 30.

 

I don't love the idea of going towards 5 years and $200M. 
I think he'd be good enough in '25 and '26, that I'd do it. 

As far as it being better for the O's to do 8 $250 vs. 5 $200M; I understand the argument.

$250 spread out evenly over 8 years is $31.25M annually.
$31.25M annually is far less than $40 annually for years 1-5, and $31.25M in years 6,7,8 will be less than $31.25M today. 

 

But I don't want to be on the hook to pay him anything in those years, as I don't think he'll be worth anything. 

I want to pay him, when he's likely to be giving you something.

 

If I was another team worried about hitting the luxury tax threshold, a longer deal might interest me more. 
If he was willing to greatly defer money, that would interest me too. 

 

But since we're talking about the O's... my take is the O's probably have a team salary they are comfortable reaching.  They have lots of assets who won't be making significant $ for sometime. Use that window, to overpay in AAV, when he figures to actually be productive, and make the overpay work with the team salary you are comfortable reaching.
 

 

*You'll ask move on to who?

 

I haven't done enough homework.   Fried and Snell should cost less, and take less years. 

 

If I had to do a trade for a Top of the rotation starter, I'd be looking for upside and team control.
If I found someone I was comfortable with, I'd be utilizing Basallo as the primary piece back.  

[dude]

If he doesn't take the contract you want him to take, you move on.*
You don't just keep offering him more, when he's already on the wrong side of 30.

 

Yeah, I mean, sure.  People are suggesting to sign Burnes.  I'm not waiting on him and I don't think they could or should sign him for what I perceive it will take so I'm comfortable just saying forget it and discussing the options I'd pursue.

 

The article starts with replacing Burnes

....there's a number of "just sign Burnes"...then you discuss it and (should) realize that's not likely a thing...

...so we're back to how do we replace Burnes.(or more "what do we want the pitching staff to look like")

 

Castillo

Gallen

Eflin

Montgomery

GRod 

 

....good enough?

[BSLChrisStoner]

What is it you want to give for Castillo?  I'm not real excited about his remaining contract, or giving Seattle the offensive players they'd be looking for. 

 

Gallen...  Wanted him last year.  How much are you giving Arizona for the rental?  Arizona will look at themselves as a contender and probably want to play it out with him.  If they struggle in the 1st half, maybe they unload.  Any talk of an extension with him would be similar but greater money than whatever it figures to sign Burnes. So maybe just sign Burnes and not give up the player capital too if the plan would be to extend Gallen.

 

Montgomery exercised his player option.  Would think Arizona would rather hold on to him, and expect a rebound with a regular Winter... same thing.. contending, they can use him... if they struggle, they can unload.  Trading him now would only be about unloading salary. If it's a straight salary dump and no real talent goes back... maybe. 

 

 

Rodriguez

SP2
Eflin
Kremer
Suarez

 

Povich

 

Should be able to find one starter that slots in the front with Rodriguez and Eflin.
Kremer, Suarez, Povich being targeted as 4,5,6 is fine... if you find one more legitimate front end starter. 

Someone like Montgomery imo would be about knocking back Suarez and Povich. 

[dude]

In the spirit of a message board, I want to answer these type things.  They're ideas and based on perceived frameworks of the respective teams.  It's not an intent to "predict" the trade and whether the players are correct or not, I'd argue there's framework (in the things described) to do something in terms of respective value, even if the names are different.

 

What is it you want to give for Castillo?  I'm not real excited about his remaining contract, or giving Seattle the offensive players they'd be looking for. 

 

I'll keep this simple, but could share more on why I think it makes sense from both sides.  Real quick is I think the money matters to SEA (media debacle) and they lack upper level OFers.

 

Beavers, Stiven Martinez, 1 or 2 guys outside the top 30 for Castillo and Haniger (15.5M).   I think (contractually) you'd need to rework the 4th year into so we can talk about structures but basically 4/95.

[dude]

Gallen...  How much are you giving Arizona for the rental?  

Montgomery exercised his player option. 

 

fwiw, I don't really agree with the way you're outlaying the AZ situation.  I guess neither of can know for sure until we see other actions.  I'd suggest Montgomery is dragging them down significantly and you can't say "I hope he doesn't exercise the option" and then say "hey man, can't wait to get you in there".  Seriously doubt he's on the DBack roster on OD, call me on it if he is.

 

I said this before but the foundation of a deal could be something like...

 

Kremer, Rogers and something for Gallen, Montgomery and cash  (there's a couple things to balance in there)

[Mackus]

Montgomery exercised his player option.  Would think Arizona would rather hold on to him, and expect a rebound with a regular Winter... same thing.. contending, they can use him... if they struggle, they can unload.  Trading him now would only be about unloading salary. If it's a straight salary dump and no real talent goes back... maybe. 

 

Arizona absolutely wants out on Montgomery.  Did you see how the owner talked about him and signing him?

 

He's definitely just a salary dump.  They will have to eat money just to get someone to take him, which is also the reason he picked up his option - he'll be paid more than he would get as a free agent.  No chance any prospect of note is required to acquire him unless Arizona pays a ton of the deal.

 

I loved him last year and remain intrigued by him, but only if he is the second SP we acquire.  LHP with history in the division, could be ideal.  But because of the bad year and the potential risk that now comes with him, he can't be the only guy.  I think the idea of Arizona trading Gallen is about as unlikely in the real-world as the Orioles re-signing Burnes, but that doesn't mean we can't talk about it and I do like the idea of a Gallen & Montgomery package with taking on Montgomery's deal acting as probably the 2nd best prospect you'd have to send for Gallen.  As a rental, don't think Gallen would require any of our top-25 level prospects to acquire, but we also don't have any back-half top-100 guys that I do think is the right level for the headliner in a package (similar to Ortiz a year ago for Burnes).

[BSLChrisStoner]

Arizona absolutely wants out on Montgomery.  Did you see how the owner talked about him and signing him?

 

He's definitely just a salary dump.  They will have to eat money just to get someone to take him, which is also the reason he picked up his option - he'll be paid more than he would get as a free agent.  No chance any prospect of note is required to acquire him unless Arizona pays a ton of the deal.

 

I loved him last year and remain intrigued by him, but only if he is the second SP we acquire.  LHP with history in the division, could be ideal.  But because of the bad year and the potential risk that now comes with him, he can't be the only guy.  I think the idea of Arizona trading Gallen is about as unlikely in the real-world as the Orioles re-signing Burnes, but that doesn't mean we can't talk about it and I do like the idea of a Gallen & Montgomery package with taking on Montgomery's deal acting as probably the 2nd best prospect you'd have to send for Gallen.  As a rental, don't think Gallen would require any of our top-25 level prospects to acquire, but we also don't have any back-half top-100 guys that I do think is the right level for the headliner in a package (similar to Ortiz a year ago for Burnes).

 

Just saw the comments. That was something.
Yeah, so salary dump, and to bump back Suarez and Povich is fine like I said.
Saying the same as you, he can't be the guy you add.  Know you want two, I'm fine with one... but the one has to be a guy fully expect to perform as a front end starter. 

 

I do like the idea of taking Montgomery as the salary dump off-setting what you'd need to give them for Gallen.

 

Taking Montgomery out of the discussion for a second, I wouldn't be totally opposed to trading Basallo for Gallen.

 

Normally wouldn't want to give up the control of Basallo for a likely rental; but the '25 is a season to be competing for a WS, so I think there is merit to considering that type of move.

 

I'm not super in love with Basallo's future with the O's; which adds to my willingness to put those chips in vs. riding out his control.

 

I've been supporting the idea of letting Santander walk, and trading Mountcastle.
Mayo and O'Hearn splitting 1st and DH. 

Rutschman getting 40 starts at DH. 
Kjerstad in RF. 

 

I think others might prefer trading Cedric (I don't like that), Cowser to CF, Kjerstad to LF (I don't like that either), extending Santander... 
Then Mountcastle, O'Hearn, and Mayo for 1st / DH, and one traded.
Again with Rutschman getting 40 games at DH. 

Others might like trading O'Hearn, and Mountcastle... resigning Santander, Kjerstad and Mayo at 1st, and DH.
Again with Rutschman getting  40 games at DH.

 

I know mweb and you have both mentioned the idea of Basallo splitting C / DH with Adley, with that being possible by maybe mid'25.

Would keep both fresher.
I think that has merit by itself, but there are other variables at play.

 

1) How does Basallo project at catcher?

2) What do the O's believe their chances are at extending Adley?

3) Should they be extending Adley even if they can?

4) Do they project Basallo as a better bat than Kjerstad or Mayo? 

[Mackus]

I'm out on Basallo for Gallen. I'd include him for Crochet.

[BaltBird 24]

Can't trade Basallo or Mayo for a 1 year rental.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Can't trade Basallo or Mayo for a 1 year rental.

I just disagree with that mentality. That's how you piss away a window of opportunity. We didnt go for it last summer. We didn't go for it last off season. We didn't go for it this summer. Yeah but we made the playoffs blah blah blah. 

 

Of and for the record the top 5 payroll teams all made the playoffs and 2 of the top 3 made the WS. But hey money doesn't matter.  J/k sort of.

[Mackus]

Can't decide how interested I am in Sonny Gray.  Signed a very backloaded 3/$75M contract last year, had a slightly down year ERA-wise (109 ERA+) but the FIP was still solid and his K% and BB% were both awesome.  He's owed 2/$65M, which seems like more than he'd get as a free agent so it wouldn't take much at all to acquire him and the Cardinals may want to chip in money.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

You def dont trade Basallo or Mayo for 1 yr of anyone. Not Ohtani. Not Judge. But def not anyone whos realistically available

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Can't decide how interested I am in Sonny Gray. Signed a very backloaded 3/$75M contract last year, had a slightly down year ERA-wise (109 ERA+) but the FIP was still solid and his K% and BB% were both awesome. He's owed 2/$65M, which seems like more than he'd get as a free agent so it wouldn't take much at all to acquire him and the Cardinals may want to chip in money.

I havent looked at any underlying numbers but the Os should be in on guys like this assuming the Cards wouldnt want much back if we take the full salary. Same goes with other teams. Assuming we have payroll frexbility, we have to remember that it doesnt have to be spent in FA. The trade market is also an option for teams who want to clear salary space

[Mackus]

I havent looked at any underlying numbers but the Os should be in on guys like this assuming the Cards wouldnt want much back if we take the full salary. Same goes with other teams. Assuming we have payroll frexbility, we have to remember that it doesnt have to be spent in FA. The trade market is also an option for teams who want to clear salary space

 

Yeah, gotta like the idea of using money now without long-term commitments.  Gray isn't quite as good as I'd like for a single addition, though he does have ace upside, but if we got him and basically any other decent pitcher I'd be happy.  I imagine if they do trade for him, that he's the big splash and we don't add a second guy.  Think I'd rather have Eovaldi if that's the case, but Gray wouldn't be a disaster.  

[dude]

I like Sonny Gray, I doubt he's reasonably available.