93 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Balt Banner: How The O's Could Replace Burnes

https://www.thebalti...5A4G5SVYSVICGY/

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Only issue with the article and its a big one.....you don't "replace" Burnes with somebody named Rogers or McDermott.

[dude]

I get the notion of replacing Burnes (and that's fine) but it's really about how you want to build the staff.

 

The whole replace Burnes thing sort of starts with the start point.....

 

1 - (replace Burnes)

2 - GRod (5 yrs)

3 - Eflin (1 yr)

4 - Kremer (3 yrs)

5 - Rogers (2 yrs) (I think you have to include Rogers here, today)

 

First SP depth: Suarez, Akin

First AAA depth - McDermott, Povich

 

Bradish is essentially out for the year and in the basic alignment, would replace Eflin in 2026.

 

They aren't adding anything to the bullpen and they still have a numbers (options/) issue. If Tyler Wells makes it back, he'd most likely take someone like Dominguez's role.

[dude]

"Replace Burnes"...FA edition...

If the goal is just to do the simplest thing (no judgement) and find someone else to take the ball opening day....

Forget Fried, love to have him but he's not coming here. Put your money on the Dodgers.

Verlander: maybe the easiest choice. Age and performance will hold down his market. He sits at 262 wins and I don't know if he's got 3 seasons left him in, but if he does want to try to get there, he needs opportunity on a good team. He's a NOVA guy and if pitching here can lock down some wins, it's maybe the easiest option. Verlander is uncompensated.

Eovoldi: I like Eovaldi (I work some with a cousin of his). He'll pitch at 35 next year and he's a Texas guy so I'm not sure, even if he opts out of the one-year, that won't just be to re-work a deal with the Rangers or head to the Astros. Don't hate the option, but I don't want to bribe him out of there for him to wish he was still there. Eovaldi is uncompensated.

Flaherty: I've been a fan of Flaherty., but this just doesn't feel like a bridge they're crossing again.

Bieber: I've been a fan, but this would seem to have to be more of a multi-year play. If you wanted to build that, ok, but probably not for just the "replace Burnes" portion of the exercise.

Not chasing guys like Severino, Wacha or Pivetta. No interest in Scherzer.

[BaltBird 24]

Verlander will be 42 and his advanced metrics fell off a cliff this past season. I have little to no interest.

I'd have some slight interest in Scherzer, his advanced numbers are still solid enough that he could provide some mid rotation innings. He could also fall off a cliff like Verlander did this year, though.

[dude]

"Replace Burnes"....Trade edition....

 

Luis Castillo:  Would be my #1 target.  I think the analysis of his availability is missing here, but I won't repeat it from previously.  You get a chance to restructure and pull the 4th year in so it probably looks something like 4/95.  He's a light version of Burnes.  Was a fan of this move when he went from the Reds to the Mariners, good coming back to it.  Provides innings and quality stability at the top of the rotation.  Taking Haniger back in the deal would be an application of "spending money" that you can't really leverage in the FA market.

 

Montgomery is a silly thing to suggest.  I have no idea how the Orioles feel about him (his ability to bounce back) but he certainly had a tumultuous offseason last year and left Boras in frustration.  Montgomery doesn't replace Burnes performance, today. I have no idea what the DBacks are going to do this offseason, but they (reasonably) may want to do some restructuring of the roster in terms of cost and service.

 

Here's a question....how do the Orioles feel about the ability to fix Rogers versus Montgomery?  Rogers is from NM.  Say you like the opportunity Montgomery may represent and you did the Castillo trade above.  Instead of just releasing Haniger (15.5M), maybe he's part of the cost offset with Montgomery. Montgomery is just a straight cost dump.  You can't make the comments Kendrick made and expect the guy to pitch for you, so he's getting dumped somewhere. 

 

If a trade looked like Rogers and Haniger for Montgomery and cash, you could make that cost neutral.  You could leverage Montgomery's negative value in a deal like that for another asset(s).  You have options with Montgomery.  If he gets back on track, he has some value.  Could you buy low into the risk today and give him some stability after last year?  ...let's consider that in a minute, but first...

 

What if we liked Montgomery's opportunity good enough to use the negative value of his contract to replace Burnes?  Zac Gallen is a Boras client in the last year (ARB3 ~13+M) of his team control (like Burnes last year).  TheCrew traded Burnes and then won the NL Central.  Would Snake ownership look at the opportunity to tie Montgomery to Gallen, free up resources and rebalance the service/cost of the ML roster?

 

The foundation of a deal could be something like Kremer (3M) and Rogers (2.5M) for Gallen (13M) and Montgomery (22.5M).

 

Gallen would be lesser version of Burnes, but falls into the same model/opportunity as Burnes did.  Pitch well, leave as a QO FA after the season.

[BaltBird 24]

Call me crazy and cynical, but I can't see Arizona being desperate enough to rid of Montgomery's salary to tie him with Gallen for Kremer and Rogers.

[BobPhelan]

Dude loves buying low on guys about to be out of the sport.

[dude]

...the "Let's get crazy" version of the above. 

 

Elais hasn't really shown any capacity for this, but if you wanted to break the mold, show some creativity (Elias) and spend some resources (Rubenstein), then...what if you combined both of the above.  You have Dipoto in SEA so that's easy to lean into, he's always up for the creative trades.

 

SEA gets Joc Pederson (salary offset) and prospects

AZ gets Rogers, Kremer, Haniger (salary offset) and Garver (salary offset), other

BAL gets Castillo (rework for 4th year), Gallen and Montgomery

 

Compare to the baseline staff above...

 

1 - Castillo

2 - Gallen

3 - Montgomery

4 - GRod

5 - Eflin

 

...keep going....

 

That's a good staff, but you still have the issue of 3 guys in the final year of their deals.  You can't really solve that with Gallen, he's take hi shot in FA and you get the QO and he's your bridge back to Bradish in 2026. Do you want to turn over rotation spots to Povich and McDermott? That's fine if you do, or...

 

2 years ago, Eflin signed a 3/40 deal with the Rays.  Does he like it in Baltimore and want to create some stability?  Would a 3/50 work?  5M SB and15M per?

 

Last year, Montgomery got frustrated with the market.  There's certainly some contention for just executing the player option and getting kicked around....if you offered him a similar 3/50, does that create some stability for him?  Maybe put the 5M on the back with a team option give him a buyout after year 2 if he wants to re-try the market?

 

That now looks like ...

 

Castillo (4/95)

Gallen (1/13+ to QO + Bradish in 2026)

Eflin (3/50)

Montgomery (3/50) 

GRod (5 yrs)

[dude]

Verlander will be 42 and his advanced metrics fell off a cliff this past season. I have little to no interest.

 

I think that's fair, fwiw.  You have to do the homework on him.  We won't see it.  Saw interview at the end of the year and he was basically trying to rush back from injury to help the 'Stros.  Probably wasn't ready to pitch and not bouncing back like he needed to.  Ultimately, that reduces some of his leverage for 2025 so he's going to have to decide his priorities.

 

If the homework isn't good (or comfortable, whatever) no commitment. 

I think if the opportunity matched up, it's probably like 1/15 and you are planning on something more like 20-25 starts.

[Mackus]

I'd just sign Burnes. Don't think it'll take Cole money. Keep it south of $250M and I think that's the best use of resources to improve the rotation for 2025 and beyond.

If a deal for Crochet can be made without Holliday, I like that option, too.

Eovaldi my favorite FA option aside from Burnes himself.

[dude]

Call me crazy and cynical, but I can't see Arizona being desperate enough to rid of Montgomery's salary to tie him with Gallen for Kremer and Rogers.

 

The only thing I feel confident about is that JM isn't pitching for the DBacks in 2025.  They can take a number of approaches to their roster. They won 89 games in 2024 and missed the Playoffs by the ATL-NYM tiebreakers.  They are a reasonable WC team that wants to get hot in OCT.  They don't need a whole lot. 

 

I don't know where the ownership team thinks the 2025 finances need to go. In 2023, AZ was the second team to get dumped by the DSG bankruptcy debacle and MLB has taken over the broadcasts for the Team.  The challenges and uncertainty without a quality media deal would seem to add a lot of financial risk to the team profile.  Re-aligning 35M could have a lot of value to them.  That's their call. 

 

Maybe they could just eat Montgomery and release him... if he's done, I don't care, leave him alone, but 12 months ago, people were talking about a 6-7 year deal, including this place.  He's completely underwater and the DBacks need to do something.  IF you want to be a partner that helps solve a problem, figure out what works, he's a chip you can work with to do something else, and it's likely getting something done early when all options are in front of you and add certainty to the books could be something they'd be super interested in.  He doesn't "replace Burnes".

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Just keep Rogers vs Montgomery. Montgomery may end up being better but its far from a lock and you have Rogers much cheaper and under team control an extra year. We dont need to do anything crazy with our SP this offseason. I think its as straight forward as signing one of the 2nd tier FAs or trading for someone in that same group.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Also Akin isnt SP depth. Hes clearly a RP. Lets stop with all this ridiculous clutter, especially when its inaccurate or unrealistic.

[Mackus]

Just keep Rogers vs Montgomery. Montgomery may end up being better but its far from a lock and you have Rogers much cheaper and under team control an extra year. We dont need to do anything crazy with our SP this offseason. I think its as straight forward as signing one of the 2nd tier FAs or trading for someone in that same group.

I'd definitely gamble on Montgomery next year over Rogers. Lot of other factors to consider when contemplating the actual roster, as you mention, but straight performance in 2025 I'd heavily lean towards Montgomery.

[ivanbalt]

I'd just sign Burnes. Don't think it'll take Cole money. Keep it south of $250M and I think that's the best use of resources to improve the rotation for 2025 and beyond.

If a deal for Crochet can be made without Holliday, I like that option, too.

Eovaldi my favorite FA option aside from Burnes himself.

Signing Burnes just makes too much sense considering all the young, cheap players under team control and lack of starting pitching in the pipeline.

[dude]

Signing Burnes just makes too much sense ....

 

Everyone would like to keep Burnes, including me.

 

What's the top limit of a contract you offer him.

[Mackus]

Everyone would like to keep Burnes, including me.

 

What's the top limit of a contract you offer him.

 

Didn't ask me, but good question...

 

7/$245M is my upper bound.  Haven't thought how things like opt outs and options and deferrals could alter the value, so there is a lot of fuzz around that.  I think that offer is about 50/50 to be enough to get him to return.  I don't see him getting $300M+ unless the market goes crazy this year or unless its heavily deferred to make it a fictitious offer that's really in the $250M range in a standard structure.  I think his declining K-rate is going to be the thing that prevents him from getting Cole money and duration.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

i think I'd lean toward something with stupid money but only 3 or 4 years max.

[Mackus]

i think I'd lean toward something with stupid money but only 3 or 4 years max.

 

If we assume he could get 7/$245M somewhere, how much do you think you'd have to offer him over 3- or 4-years to get him to turn that down?