55 replies to this topic

[BSLRoseKatz]

https://baltimorespo...of-uncertainty/

 

Looked at the obvious uncertainty of the offseason (keeping Burnes/Santander) and also the uncertainty of making trades (they're running low on trade chips they're fine with moving who are actually interesting to other teams)

 

Also had several paragraphs about Hyde but Elias already confirming he's coming back kinda ruined those lol

[BSLSteveBirrer]

No problem moving Mayo.
Not much of a problem moving Holliday.
Major problem extending Adley. No thanks.

[Mackus]

Love the idea of extending Adley if he'll listen.  Never would've thought it possible but now think its a glimmer of being our only chance we'll have to buy low.  I know many fans are incapable of seeing anything except the most recent results, but baseball doesn't work that way.  I'll take on the risk that he's forgotten how to hit at 26 years old to have a shot of the benefit of having him back at his expected levels through his early 30s without having to commit to his mid 30s when you'd be fearful of catchers falling off.

 

I'm definitely in on a 6-7 year deal for Rutschman.

[Mackus]

I don't think a Henderson contract is possible.  Would obviously support that if there is any interest, but there won't be.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Love the idea of extending Adley if he'll listen.  Never would've thought it possible but now think its a glimmer of being our only chance we'll have to buy low.  I know many fans are incapable of seeing anything except the most recent results, but baseball doesn't work that way.  I'll take on the risk that he's forgotten how to hit at 26 years old to have a shot of the benefit of having him back at his expected levels through his early 30s without having to commit to his mid 30s when you'd be fearful of catchers falling off.

 

I'm definitely in on a 6-7 year deal for Rutschman.

Not a bad take. My concern is that I think the tea leaves are shaking out. I think hes a much better hitter as a DH than when catching and that IMO greatly diminishes his value. Now if you can factor that in and get a good price then sure I'd look at hm for 5 or 6 years., But I suspect what I'd be willing to pony up is way less than what it would take.

 

I'd give him something like 6$100M......max

[makoman]

Adley at catcher (top) vs DH (bottom)

 

2022:

.245/.354/.439 .793 OPS in 367 PAs

.289/.392/.446 .838 OPS in   97 PAs

 

2023:

.276/.375/.411 .786 OPS in 480 PAs

.284/.374/.500 .874 OPS in 203 PAs

 

2024:

.231/.299/.351 .650 OPS in 448 PAs

.298/.366/.488 .854 OPS in 186 PAs

 

This year, he was pretty normal when DHing, bad when catching. The previous two years were perfectly fine as a catcher, if that's where he was he'd be good. I don't know what to make of it, his PAs as a catcher were lower than in 2023 so he shouldn't necessarily have been worn down. They specifically said he wasn't playing hurt. If I had to bet, I'd bet he can get back to where he was, I'd bet he is more like the previous 5+ years in the organization rather than the last 3 months, so I would extend him. I recognize there is more risk today than there was in May, but that's probably the only reason an extension may be possible.

[BSLRoseKatz]

Anyways just to get some more discussion going, which trade path do you think they're most likely to follow

 

A. Trade at least one of Mayo/Basallo/Holliday/Kjerstad for an ace or at least a fine #2 starter

B. Try to see what's the best they can bring back by offering up some combo of Beavers/EBJ/Fabian/McDermott etc for the second-tier guys

C. Avoid moving anyone major, take a flier or two for depth by moving some third-tier guys

[BaltBird 24]

Still think they need to hold onto their elite guys - very hesitant to trade Holliday, Mayo, Basallo.

I'd include Kjerstad in the tier below those guys, so he's open to trade. Fine with them dealing anyone under the elite tier.

[Mackus]

Anyways just to get some more discussion going, which trade path do you think they're most likely to follow

 

A. Trade at least one of Mayo/Basallo/Holliday/Kjerstad for an ace or at least a fine #2 starter

B. Try to see what's the best they can bring back by offering up some combo of Beavers/EBJ/Fabian/McDermott etc for the second-tier guys

C. Avoid moving anyone major, take a flier or two for depth by moving some third-tier guys

 

I think B is most likely.  Think Povich is a name we'll see dangled in trade along with the guys you mention.

 

I could see A but that's basically Crochet as the entire target list, no?  Guess dude has mentioned Castillo, but the Mariners have been rumored to be dealing from their rotation strength for a couple seasons now and haven't done it.  I think they'd want established guys and not prospects anyways, so Cowser or Westburg would be the targets moreso than the guys on the edge of MLB.  

 

Can also see C, but mainly as taking back an overpaid but still effective guy.  Sonny Gray a good example here.  This is kind of an extension of the free agent market, as the main resource you're committing is cash.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I'd trade any of those guys for a TOR starter depending of course on the years on control we'd get. I highly doubt Elias will do that. I suspect he will try a bandaid approach to bridge them to 2026 when Bradish and Means are back. That would be a huge mistake IMO.

[Mackus]

Mountcastle also would make sense in part of a trade for a lower-tier SP depending on the needs of the other team.  He doesn't replace one of the stud prospects, but he might let you keep one of the second tier guys.

 

Mullins, too, but I don't really wanna consider that.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think they are going to try to get their SP from the FA market. 2nd tier guys.

It will be interesting to see if they try to change up the dna of the lineup through trades

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I say guys plural but Im not sure if they pursue more than 1 additional SP. They have Eflin, GRod, Kremer, Povich, Rogers, Suarez. Wells may make it back relatively early. Bradish may make it back by summer. Then you have McDermott and Young who seem ready even deeper. Obviously you can never have too much pitching but Im just not sure they pursue 2 SP. I think they may look to only replace Burnes

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Id really like to focus on the lineup and the RP

[BaltBird 24]

I'm cool running with Eflin, Rodriguez, Kremer, Povich 2-5 or even as the 4. Not sold on Saurez, Rogers, McDermott, or Young.

Get another quality SP or two (if Povich implodes, health issues, etc).

[TwentyThirtyFive]

They will def get 1 quality SP but I think thats all they may need tbh

[BaltBird 24]

We're deep with ready or near ready guys. Eflin, Rodriguez, Kremer are a lock. Povich performed very well down the stretch. I don't like handing an automatic rotation but to Saurez, but he'll factor into the SP/RP mix. Same for Rogers. Then you've got McDermott and Young in AAA. That's 8 off the bat.

[Mackus]

It will be interesting to see if they try to change up the dna of the lineup through trades

Agree will be interesting to watch.

But I will be surprised if there is even one new (external to org) hitter in the lineup next year and shocked if it's multiple new guys playing regularly.

[Mackus]

We're deep with ready or near ready guys. Eflin, Rodriguez, Kremer are a lock. Povich performed very well down the stretch. I don't like handing an automatic rotation but to Saurez, but he'll factor into the SP/RP mix. Same for Rogers. Then you've got McDermott and Young in AAA. That's 8 off the bat.

I'm very bearish on McDermott as a SP. I would only count on him as emergency depth. Excited about him as a RP, though.

[makoman]

I doubt Wells would be considered a SP at this point either. I agree I’d be good with our 2-5 if they can plug in someone better than those as the #1. Just don’t make it a Lyles Gibson type.