163 replies to this topic

[russsnyder]

Good series win.

Burnes stepped up like the # 1 the Orioles acquired.

[jamesdean]

Hard for me to understand any criticism of Burnes.  He's been exactly what the Orioles signed him to be- the ace of the staff who gives you a great chance to win every time he steps on the mound.  I look forward to his starts and haven't felt this way about a starting pitcher since probably Mike Mussina.  And I'm sure the team itself feels extremely confident when he's out there too.  I genuinely hope he loves being in Baltimore and wants to sign here long term. 

[russsnyder]

Hard for me to understand any criticism of Burnes. He's been exactly what the Orioles signed him to be- the ace of the staff who gives you a great chance to win every time he steps on the mound. I look forward to his starts and haven't felt this way about a starting pitcher since probably Mike Mussina. And I'm sure the team itself feels extremely confident when he's out there too. I genuinely hope he loves being in Baltimore and wants to sign here long term.

I agree.

While I would like him to use his sweeper, that's certainly his choice not to. Further, He has been pitching extremely well without it.

No sense complaining about a number 1 when you have been complaining for years about not having one on your staff.

[ivanbalt]

Hard for me to understand any criticism of Burnes.  He's been exactly what the Orioles signed him to be- the ace of the staff who gives you a great chance to win every time he steps on the mound.  I look forward to his starts and haven't felt this way about a starting pitcher since probably Mike Mussina.  And I'm sure the team itself feels extremely confident when he's out there too.  I genuinely hope he loves being in Baltimore and wants to sign here long term. 

Yup.  He's 4th in innings pitched and has an ERA of 2.35.  Not sure what else is expected of a #1 in this era of baseball.

[makoman]

The only possible complaint is that his K's are down. But the results are fine, and the remaining raw numbers are fine so I don't really care. It's not like he's at 6 K/9, he's still just about 1 per inning (71 in 72.2 inn).

 

Also, the "solid 2" complaint seemed to be based on his WAR being not all that great, but that always seemed like a silly argument less than 2 months into the season. FWIW, now he's tied for 11th in MLB in fWAR (1.8), though 36th in bWAR (1.4). So I guess he's an ace again if you like fangraphs.

 

While I like WAR for position players I've never loved it for pitchers, BR and FG sometimes vary a ton and I don't really have an intuitive sense of which is better. For example, Seth Lugo is first in bWAR at 3.3, tied with Burnes at 1.8 fWAR.

[BobPhelan]

The only possible complaint is that his K's are down. But the results are fine, and the remaining raw numbers are fine so I don't really care. It's not like he's at 6 K/9, he's still just about 1 per inning (71 in 72.2 inn).

Also, the "solid 2" complaint seemed to be based on his WAR being not all that great, but that always seemed like a silly argument less than 2 months into the season. FWIW, now he's tied for 11th in MLB in fWAR (1.8), though 36th in bWAR (1.4). So I guess he's an ace again if you like fangraphs.

While I like WAR for position players I've never loved it for pitchers, BR and FG sometimes vary a ton and I don't really have an intuitive sense of which is better. For example, Seth Lugo is first in bWAR at 3.3, tied with Burnes at 1.8 fWAR.

Agree on pitching WAR. One uses ERA and the other uses FIP.

[Slidemaster]

Ugh, where to start with this. I'll break it down.

Slide wants the Orioles & the Ravens to win the World Series/Super Bowl every every year. When this doesn't happen, the season is in essence a failure.

Patently false. It was not my expectation when either franchise was in a clear state of transition. However, considering both are now top tier...yeah. not winning the SB or the WS is a disappointment. I don't expect it every year, but I would like it to happen in this era of players.

Slide expects Burnes to pitch to a Cy Young level every start. He also, like others (myself included), has an issue with Burnes not using his sweeper in a walk year. When Burnes doesn't pitch up to his expectations, Slide points it out. This is absolutely his right.

Again, I expect him to be dominant. Maybe not every time out, but more often than not. He's been very good for the most part. However, yeah, I do have an issue with him not using his sweeper. Seems very "me first" and clearly shows to me that his first priority is not winning a world series.

My only issue with Slide is how he can't laugh at himself when people poke fun at some of his over the top takes. Also, his reactions to most criticism involve him defending his position by stating what a good guy he is. While I'm glad Slide has a nice life, it has nothing to do with posting on the site.

Here's where you lost me. I pretty regularly poke fun at myself. I also couldn't care less about criticisms for the most part, but I'm also not going to sit here and be personally insulted for saying things that arent any worse thab anyone else and not respond. At no point did I talk about what a great guy I am. Go back and read to confirm.

Once again, please point out this "loser's mentality" as it pertains to the Orioles. I'm not going to argue the Ravens. I'm more or less done caring until they prove something because of how disgusted I was with last year's end. But the Orioles are another story.

[Mike B]

I really don't understand the concerns about Burnes.  IMO, he has been as advertised.  

[russsnyder]

Ugh, where to start with this. I'll break it down.

Patently false. It was not my expectation when either franchise was in a clear state of transition. However, considering both are now top tier...yeah. not winning the SB or the WS is a disappointment. I don't expect it every year, but I would like it to happen in this era of players.

Again, I expect him to be dominant. Maybe not every time out, but more often than not. He's been very good for the most part. However, yeah, I do have an issue with him not using his sweeper. Seems very "me first" and clearly shows to me that his first priority is not winning a world series.

Here's where you lost me. I pretty regularly poke fun at myself. I also couldn't care less about criticisms for the most part, but I'm also not going to sit here and be personally insulted for saying things that arent any worse thab anyone else and not respond. At no point did I talk about what a great guy I am. Go back and read to confirm.

Once again, please point out this "loser's mentality" as it pertains to the Orioles. I'm not going to argue the Ravens. I'm more or less done caring until they prove something because of how disgusted I was with last year's end. But the Orioles are another story.

Thou protests too much.

These are just my observations.

[makoman]

Maybe some of this should go into the Burnes thread as it’ll get lost in a game thread, but it fits here.

 

Is the sweeper thing really an issue? 

 

All info from savant. The slider profile this year is 36 inches of drop, 8 inches horizontal movement. This is really similar to what it was in 2020, 2021, and 2022. In 2023 it was 35 inches of drop but 12 inches horizontal. It was a couple MPH slower last year.

 

I believe it is well documented that Burnes never used a sweeper until some time last year. So all he’s done is gone back to the slider that he used to use.

 

He’s actually using a slider more this year than ever, 16%. The other three years were 9%.

 

The curve profile is almost identical to last year, 54 drop and 10 break, so I don’t think they were mixing up pitches or anything.

 

With the slider, here are the BA/SLG and whiff%/putaway% against from this year back to 2021

 

.188/.271 48.6%/26.0%

.159/.275 43.8%/22.2%

.160/.309 49.7%/27.5%

.174/.174 47.5%/36.1%

 

(Put away is percent of 2 strike pitches that result in K.)

 

2023 is the best as far as BA goes, but not all that different, and the worst as far as whiffs and put away. 

 

The run value by pitch type has the slider worth 1 in each of 2022-2024, and 7 in 2021.

 

The slider wasn’t some superstar pitch last year that sucks now. It’s always been good, and is still good. It was out of this world when he won the CY, only allowed singles and much better with 2 strikes, but he hasn't quite reproduced that. I think this is much ado about nothing, a complete nitpick.

[russsnyder]

Maybe some of this should go into the Burnes thread as it’ll get lost in a game thread, but it fits here.

Is the sweeper thing really an issue?

All info from savant. The slider profile this year is 36 inches of drop, 8 inches horizontal movement. This is really similar to what it was in 2020, 2021, and 2022. In 2023 it was 35 inches of drop but 12 inches horizontal. It was a couple MPH slower last year.

I believe it is well documented that Burnes never used a sweeper until some time last year. So all he’s done is gone back to the slider that he used to use.

He’s actually using a slider more this year than ever, 16%. The other three years were 9%.

The curve profile is almost identical to last year, 54 drop and 10 break, so I don’t think they were mixing up pitches or anything.

With the slider, here are the BA/SLG and whiff%/putaway% against from this year back to 2021

.188/.271 48.6%/26.0%
.159/.275 43.8%/22.2%
.160/.309 49.7%/27.5%
.174/.174 47.5%/36.1%

(Put away is percent of 2 strike pitches that result in K.)

2023 is the best as far as BA goes, but not all that different, and the worst as far as whiffs and put away.

The run value by pitch type has the slider worth 1 in each of 2022-2024, and 7 in 2021.

The slider wasn’t some superstar pitch last year that sucks now. It’s always been good, and is still good. It was out of this world when he won the CY, only allowed singles and much better with 2 strikes, but he hasn't quite reproduced that. I think this is much ado about nothing, a complete nitpick.

Good post.

I could be way out of bounds for criticizing him for abandoning the sweeper for a more effective pitch.

Further, a throwing slider is probably going to cause similar arm problems that the sweeper does.

[Slidemaster]

Thou protests too much.

These are just my observations.

Right. You got nothing.

[jamesdean]

Burnes is averaging a strikeout per inning.  Once upon a time, that would have been considered elite.  In today's game, that's the status quo so I'm not surprised there's some knit picking about it.  But it's good enough for me and there's nothing wrong with pitching to contact when you have a very good defense behind you.  Trying to strike out everyone just piles up the pitch count. 

[Mike B]

Good riddance Boston. Take your fake fans with you

I went Tuesday and Wednesday.  Their fans are the absolute worst.  I truly hope they finish last, AGAIN.

[russsnyder]

Right. You got nothing.

Of course.

[russsnyder]

I went Tuesday and Wednesday. Their fans are the absolute worst. I truly hope they finish last, AGAIN.

They are the worst.

And that ugly accent.

I dated a woman from Boston years ago.

She was really attractive until we started a conversation.

[russsnyder]

Burnes is averaging a strikeout per inning. Once upon a time, that would have been considered elite. In today's game, that's the status quo so I'm not surprised there's some knit picking about it. But it's good enough for me and there's nothing wrong with pitching to contact when you have a very good defense behind you. Trying to strike out everyone just piles up the pitch count.

Didn't Crash Davis say strikeouts were facist too?

[Grindelwald]

The only possible complaint is that his K's are down. But the results are fine, and the remaining raw numbers are fine so I don't really care. It's not like he's at 6 K/9, he's still just about 1 per inning (71 in 72.2 inn).

Also, the "solid 2" complaint seemed to be based on his WAR being not all that great, but that always seemed like a silly argument less than 2 months into the season. FWIW, now he's tied for 11th in MLB in fWAR (1.8), though 36th in bWAR (1.4). So I guess he's an ace again if you like fangraphs.

While I like WAR for position players I've never loved it for pitchers, BR and FG sometimes vary a ton and I don't really have an intuitive sense of which is better. For example, Seth Lugo is first in bWAR at 3.3, tied with Burnes at 1.8 fWAR.

Both are bad.

[mikezpen]

He's pitched two rubber games against two decent teams over the last couple of weeks and won 'em both. That's what you need your ace to do.

[1970]

Maybe some of this should go into the Burnes thread as it’ll get lost in a game thread, but it fits here.

 

Is the sweeper thing really an issue? 

 

All info from savant. The slider profile this year is 36 inches of drop, 8 inches horizontal movement. This is really similar to what it was in 2020, 2021, and 2022. In 2023 it was 35 inches of drop but 12 inches horizontal. It was a couple MPH slower last year.

 

I believe it is well documented that Burnes never used a sweeper until some time last year. So all he’s done is gone back to the slider that he used to use.

 

He’s actually using a slider more this year than ever, 16%. The other three years were 9%.

 

The curve profile is almost identical to last year, 54 drop and 10 break, so I don’t think they were mixing up pitches or anything.

 

With the slider, here are the BA/SLG and whiff%/putaway% against from this year back to 2021

 

.188/.271 48.6%/26.0%

.159/.275 43.8%/22.2%

.160/.309 49.7%/27.5%

.174/.174 47.5%/36.1%

 

(Put away is percent of 2 strike pitches that result in K.)

 

2023 is the best as far as BA goes, but not all that different, and the worst as far as whiffs and put away. 

 

The run value by pitch type has the slider worth 1 in each of 2022-2024, and 7 in 2021.

 

The slider wasn’t some superstar pitch last year that sucks now. It’s always been good, and is still good. It was out of this world when he won the CY, only allowed singles and much better with 2 strikes, but he hasn't quite reproduced that. I think this is much ado about nothing, a complete nitpick.

 

I can’t like this post enough.  Can someone please provide a link in which Burnes states he isn’t throwing a sweeper this year because he wants to protect him going into free agency?  I’m not saying he didn’t say that, just that I can’t find anything anywhere to indicate he’s not throwing it for that particular reason.  As Makoman points out, his slider is just as good this year as it’s ever been, therefore I don’t see the issue.