136 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I still expect they sign or trade for a starter, but I think we're gonna have a lot of ambiguity as to the quality of that guy. I think many are gonna be lowering the bar in retrospect when we end up with Lorenzen or Paxton. Blech.

Maybe but Im thinking trade specifically and a guy that is known or young with upside. So Cease, one of the Florida or Sea SPs most likely. Maybe there is another youngish SP out there on another team we havent heard but fits the same bill. An Indians arm. How would people feel about Triston McKenzie. Too risky?

[Mackus]

Maybe but Im thinking trade specifically and a guy that is known or young with upside. So Cease, one of the Florida or Sea SPs most likely. Maybe there is another youngish SP out there on another team we havent heard but fits the same bill. An Indians arm. How would people feel about Triston McKenzie. Too risky?

 

Hope so.  Will be really exciting if they do. 

[Ravens2006]

Any stat heads able to get a number on how many articles (Orioles.com and MASN.com as one subset; all other media sources as another) have been published about the Orioles "interest in adding starting pitching" have been published over he last 1, 2, 3, 5, and 10 years???

Challenge made... now go! Winner gets an air high five...

[dude]

Im gonna trust the article that essentially says WhiteSox are asking for too much.

 

They're allowed to ask for whatever they want.  Unlike other situations, they don't have to trade him.  They want to be blown away and you have previous deals like Sale and Eaton that they'll get compared to.  Unlike other situations, the WhiteSox don't really have to make big financial decisions.  They could just as easily extend Cease and figure out a team to compete.  They have lots of pieces.  If they can't get something absurd, then who cares. If they want to move him because they think they are selling high (or whatever) they can do that too....but there is no forcing function for the trade other than they want to see if they can get a haul.

 

...we've seen several teams that were in on Cease, bail out and go other directions.  The reds, Braves and Yankees all went other simple but more suspect directions presumed from the asking price.

 

We were rumored what the reds asking price was.

 

People put Kjerstad and Norby in the deal.  That's probably reasonable and fair, but they are likely looking for at least 2 more pieces.

 

....so like Kjerstad, Norby, Povich and McDermitt plus something minor.

 

I'm not really enamored by Cease so that's not interesting to me at all, but they can hold a line like that.

[dude]

Luzardo.  You can certainly ask.  The Fish can deal from a surplus of pitching where they like.  Maybe it's guys like Weatthers and Rogers off the back end.

 

If I'm Miami, I don't take less than a package that starts with Basallo.

 

I'm on Team Basallo and I'm not committed to adding Luzardo (although I actually love the Mayo angle)....but if I wanted to do something like that, you try and replace Basallo in the system with someone like Dodgers Daulton Rushing.  I've mentioned him before and Basallo makes me want to stop talking about him, but if I go get Luzardo with Basallo, then I turn around and figure out Rushing for the Organizational position.

 

You can get the Dodgers involved, you can get the Brewers involved, but if you're willing to make something happen for Luzardo with Basallo, you can work to replace Basallo with a guy like Rushing who is blocked by the Freeman/Ohtani/Smith triumvirate in Dodger-town.

 

You are allowed to be creative.  It's almost 23 JAN.

[mikezpen]

A couple of thoughts.

 

If I had to include either Cowser or Kjerstad in a trade, I'd trade Kjerstad despite his power because Cowser is a centerfielder, and that we'll need. K. isn't a great fielder.

 

I'd like to trade the likes of Druby/Ortiz for promising minor league pitching both because it gives them an opportunity and keeps them from rotting on the vine and because it mite give us needed depth. But I don't know if these types of deals are made that often.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Ok.

Then pony up and sign Snell or Montgomery if you want to hold onto all of your chess pieces. It's not like trading is the only avenue towards adding talent to the roster.

I wouldn't be thrilled with Paxton, but he'd be an OK addition at the back of the rotation.

 

Not done yet but sounds like he's headed to the Dodgers for 1/$12. If that's the case, I certainly hope the Orioles passed because they are confident they'll land a bigger prize, because now that means the aisle they typically shop in has one less item on the shelf.

[mweb08]

A couple of thoughts.

 

If I had to include either Cowser or Kjerstad in a trade, I'd trade Kjerstad despite his power because Cowser is a centerfielder, and that we'll need. K. isn't a great fielder.

 

I'd like to trade the likes of Druby/Ortiz for promising minor league pitching both because it gives them an opportunity and keeps them from rotting on the vine and because it mite give us needed depth. But I don't know if these types of deals are made that often.

 

I think Cowser can play CF if needed, but I don't think he is a centerfielder. 

[mdrunning]

Not done yet but sounds like he's headed to the Dodgers for 1/$12. If that's the case, I certainly hope the Orioles passed because they are confident they'll land a bigger prize, because now that means the aisle they typically shop in has one less item on the shelf.

Well, that would likely take the Dodgers out of the running for Dylan Cease.

[mikezpen]

Evaluator Says O's Prospects Could Have Value Diminished (msn.com)

 

Here's an article that claims prospects are hurt by letting them languish in the minors year after year.

[RichardZ]

Luzardo.  You can certainly ask.  The Fish can deal from a surplus of pitching where they like.  Maybe it's guys like Weatthers and Rogers off the back end.
 
If I'm Miami, I don't take less than a package that starts with Basallo.
 
I'm on Team Basallo and I'm not committed to adding Luzardo (although I actually love the Mayo angle)....but if I wanted to do something like that, you try and replace Basallo in the system with someone like Dodgers Daulton Rushing.  I've mentioned him before and Basallo makes me want to stop talking about him, but if I go get Luzardo with Basallo, then I turn around and figure out Rushing for the Organizational position.
 
You can get the Dodgers involved, you can get the Brewers involved, but if you're willing to make something happen for Luzardo with Basallo, you can work to replace Basallo with a guy like Rushing who is blocked by the Freeman/Ohtani/Smith triumvirate in Dodger-town.
 
You are allowed to be creative.  It's almost 23 JAN.

I’m on team Basallo as well. Frankly, I’m willing to deal one of Kjerstad/Cowser and just about any prospect not named Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Bradfield.I think that still leaves us with plenty of prospect firepower to land a very good pitcher.

[Slidemaster]

I’m on team Basallo as well. Frankly, I’m willing to deal one of Kjerstad/Cowser and just about any prospect not named Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Bradfield.I think that still leaves us with plenty of prospect firepower to land a very good pitcher.

Imagine going to another GM and saying "I want your most valuable asset, but all of our most valuable prospects are off the table except the 2 or 3 we don't want."

They would hang up the phone.

They are always going to be asking for top 5 prospects (plural), and unless we meet their demands they have no incentive to trade.

[Slidemaster]

Evaluator Says O's Prospects Could Have Value Diminished (msn.com)

Here's an article that claims prospects are hurt by letting them languish in the minors year after year.

I've been saying this.

When a guy hits 24-25 and havent made the majors, they risk "dying on vine" so to speak. Their "prospect" label starts to fade.

[Mackus]

I’m on team Basallo as well. Frankly, I’m willing to deal one of Kjerstad/Cowser and just about any prospect not named Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Bradfield.I think that still leaves us with plenty of prospect firepower to land a very good pitcher.

Surprised to see Bradfield in that mix. But I agree with the rest when to comes to Cease. He's not good enough and controllable enough to part with Mayo or Basallo as a primary piece plus more. Luzardo I'd include one of them, but not Cease.

But while it's reasonable to balk at the price for Cease, it'd be unreasonable, and frankly incompetent, to just quit and do nothing at SP if the White Sox won't see reason on Cease's value. If they're gonna let all other viable options come off the board without claiming one, then you're backed into a corner and have to pay Chicago's price. Because doing nothing is not a viable option, IMO, and would be a job very poorly done by Elias and Angelos.

[BobPhelan]

I would trade Basallo or Holliday for basically no one. Mayo I would be hard pressed but something like him and one smaller piece for Luzardo I would do.

[Mackus]

One easy answer to all of this would be been to buy a FA SP. Still could wait Montgomery or Snell. You get to keep all your prospects and let them sort it out on the field. Still really crowded at Norfolk this year but I dont think anyone is on the bench. Then if you really are overcrowded, deal the surplus for bullpen help or something.

[Mackus]

I think Burnes is less likely to be dealt than Luzardo or definitely Cease, but he's another route where you shouldn't have to give up quite as much because it's just a rental. Unlikely he's moved at all though, IMO, as Brewers will want to try to contend and can't do that if they flip him for prospects and don't think Mountcastle or Hays move the needle enough for them either.

[Slidemaster]

I would trade Basallo or Holliday for basically no one. Mayo I would be hard pressed but something like him and one smaller piece for Luzardo I would do.

I might trade either for Spencer Strider. Basallo before Holliday. Not that Atl is looking to do that.

Otherwise, I'm not sure there are many reasonably obtainable assets I'd consider for those two.

[dude]

I was going to write something about Burnes here too....I'll use this...

I think Burnes is less likely to be dealt than Luzardo or definitely Cease, but he's another route where you shouldn't have to give up quite as much because it's just a rental. Unlikely he's moved at all though, IMO, as Brewers will want to try to contend and can't do that if they flip him for prospects and don't think Mountcastle or Hays move the needle enough for them either.

 

Does anyone want to try and assess the Brewers situation?  This is what I just don't understand.  They won 92 games last year and got knocked out in the first round.  They (like the Orioles) just missed the Playoffs the year before.

 

They've non-tendered Woodruff.  They have Yelich signed for big money and just signed Chourio (start in CF) so they'll want to lev3erage these years.  They aren't rebuilding....but they are legitimately the smallest market in MLB. There are 14 metro markets larger than MIL (40th) without a MLB team.

 

They are paying Adames and Burnes 30M this season and both are leaving after the season.

 

They have the worst infield in MLB this side of the As.  On the depth chart, they have Jake Bauers listed as 1B AND DH and he's 27 with a career OPS well under .700.  Adames is at SS (fine) but they were terrible at 2B and 3B last year.  They have basically given up 4 positions.  If they want to just add fringe players that fall to them, ok, but even at current rates (Gallo just signed for 5M+) they are going to have to spend another 10-20M just not to have an infield of Utility players. Tyler Black seems like a decent prospect but they need to figure out where they want him to settle.  Could be UT, could be more.

 

The NL Central will be better this year.  You can't expect the Cards to be a disaster again.  The Cubs, Reds and Pirates should all be average or better teams. 

 

If they were a locked up roster and you just want to ride Burnes to a Playoff opportunity, I get that....but that's not where they are.  They need to invest in the next 4-5-6  years.  They have HUGE holes in the current roster and don't seem willing/able to spend their way out of it.  They don't have the upper level prospects to project.  If they just burn this year without making real changes they lose the value of Burnes and they spend over half the money to get less later.

 

They (Matt Arnold) can do whatever they want.  They can pretend they don't need help, but they absolutely do.

 

If you do something like I've suggested (trade), you are giving them their 1-2-4 hitters around Yelich.  Their lineup gets much deeper. They can do something and probably keep that group around for 6 years at reasonable costs.  Build some stability in a small market.  

 

They have a couple of decent starters coming up. Depending on what version you run, they could wind up with one of the Dodgers young starters. You could wind up with a second tier Marlins starter. They could sign Lorenzen to a 1-ywear or 3-year deal to bridge out off of Burnes.

 

They have to spend more money (on top of Burnes/Adames 30M) to get on par with the other NLC teams.

 

The Orioles should certainly be willing to pay (now players) for the difference between Burnes and Lorenzen. 

The Brewers need to turn that difference into their infield and save a bunch of money.  

[makoman]

I was going to write something about Burnes here too....I'll use this...

 

Does anyone want to try and assess the Brewers situation?  This is what I just don't understand.  They won 92 games last year and got knocked out in the first round.  They (like the Orioles) just missed the Playoffs the year before.

 

They've non-tendered Woodruff.  They have Yelich signed for big money and just signed Chourio (start in CF) so they'll want to lev3erage these years.  They aren't rebuilding....but they are legitimately the smallest market in MLB. There are 14 metro markets larger than MIL (40th) without a MLB team.

 

They are paying Adames and Burnes 30M this season and both are leaving after the season.

 

They have the worst infield in MLB this side of the As.  On the depth chart, they have Jake Bauers listed as 1B AND DH and he's 27 with a career OPS well under .700.  Adames is at SS (fine) but they were terrible at 2B and 3B last year.  They have basically given up 4 positions.  If they want to just add fringe players that fall to them, ok, but even at current rates (Gallo just signed for 5M+) they are going to have to spend another 10-20M just not to have an infield of Utility players. Tyler Black seems like a decent prospect but they need to figure out where they want him to settle.  Could be UT, could be more.

 

The NL Central will be better this year.  You can't expect the Cards to be a disaster again.  The Cubs, Reds and Pirates should all be average or better teams. 

 

If they were a locked up roster and you just want to ride Burnes to a Playoff opportunity, I get that....but that's not where they are.  They need to invest in the next 4-5-6  years.  They have HUGE holes in the current roster and don't seem willing/able to spend their way out of it.  They don't have the upper level prospects to project.  If they just burn this year without making real changes they lose the value of Burnes and they spend over half the money to get less later.

 

They (Matt Arnold) can do whatever they want.  They can pretend they don't need help, but they absolutely do.

 

If you do something like I've suggested (trade), you are giving them their 1-2-4 hitters around Yelich.  Their lineup gets much deeper. They can do something and probably keep that group around for 6 years at reasonable costs.  Build some stability in a small market.  

 

They have a couple of decent starters coming up. Depending on what version you run, they could wind up with one of the Dodgers young starters. You could wind up with a second tier Marlins starter. They could sign Lorenzen to a 1-ywear or 3-year deal to bridge out off of Burnes.

 

They have to spend more money (on top of Burnes/Adames 30M) to get on par with the other NLC teams.

 

The Orioles should certainly be willing to pay (now players) for the difference between Burnes and Lorenzen. 

The Brewers need to turn that difference into their infield and save a bunch of money.  

I don't think it's the craziest thing in the world for them to decide: the playoffs are mostly a crapshoot, we have a very good chance of winning the Central as is, so let's just go with that and keep our Ace, let's start with a Cy Young candidate in each playoff series and you have a chance, see how it goes...