136 replies to this topic

[RichardZ]

Imagine going to another GM and saying "I want your most valuable asset, but all of our most valuable prospects are off the table except the 2 or 3 we don't want."
They would hang up the phone.
They are always going to be asking for top 5 prospects (plural), and unless we meet their demands they have no incentive to trade.

Everything is relative. Kjerstad and Cowser are top 40 prospects or better on most sites. Ortiz was top 63 most everywhere but now is fringe 100 on some. McDermott/Povich are fringe 100. Horvath was a 2nd round pick last year with a very good debut and some buzz around this year. That’s a very good package. In fact, I doubt any team has come close to offering that much. Can you imagine being a GM who takes a package of a teams #1, #3 and #5 prospect because of their team top ten ranking that’s actually worse than the Orioles #4, #6, and #10 prospects? That would be really stupid, wouldn’t it?

[RichardZ]

Surprised to see Bradfield in that mix. But I agree with the rest when to comes to Cease. He's not good enough and controllable enough to part with Mayo or Basallo as a primary piece plus more. Luzardo I'd include one of them, but not Cease.
But while it's reasonable to balk at the price for Cease, it'd be unreasonable, and frankly incompetent, to just quit and do nothing at SP if the White Sox won't see reason on Cease's value. If they're gonna let all other viable options come off the board without claiming one, then you're backed into a corner and have to pay Chicago's price. Because doing nothing is not a viable option, IMO, and would be a job very poorly done by Elias and Angelos.

I’d hate to trade Bradfield because he’s one of the true CF top prospects we have. I think he’s going to hit and with enough pop and if that happens he’s going to be a top 20 prospect and a dynamic player. After him, it’s hope for Tavera to break through this year but I doubt he’ll be ready by the time Ced’s ready to leave.

[RichardZ]

I was going to write something about Burnes here too....I'll use this...

 
Does anyone want to try and assess the Brewers situation?  This is what I just don't understand.  They won 92 games last year and got knocked out in the first round.  They (like the Orioles) just missed the Playoffs the year before.
 
They've non-tendered Woodruff.  They have Yelich signed for big money and just signed Chourio (start in CF) so they'll want to lev3erage these years.  They aren't rebuilding....but they are legitimately the smallest market in MLB. There are 14 metro markets larger than MIL (40th) without a MLB team.
 
They are paying Adames and Burnes 30M this season and both are leaving after the season.
 
They have the worst infield in MLB this side of the As.  On the depth chart, they have Jake Bauers listed as 1B AND DH and he's 27 with a career OPS well under .700.  Adames is at SS (fine) but they were terrible at 2B and 3B last year.  They have basically given up 4 positions.  If they want to just add fringe players that fall to them, ok, but even at current rates (Gallo just signed for 5M+) they are going to have to spend another 10-20M just not to have an infield of Utility players. Tyler Black seems like a decent prospect but they need to figure out where they want him to settle.  Could be UT, could be more.
 
The NL Central will be better this year.  You can't expect the Cards to be a disaster again.  The Cubs, Reds and Pirates should all be average or better teams. 
 
If they were a locked up roster and you just want to ride Burnes to a Playoff opportunity, I get that....but that's not where they are.  They need to invest in the next 4-5-6  years.  They have HUGE holes in the current roster and don't seem willing/able to spend their way out of it.  They don't have the upper level prospects to project.  If they just burn this year without making real changes they lose the value of Burnes and they spend over half the money to get less later.
 
They (Matt Arnold) can do whatever they want.  They can pretend they don't need help, but they absolutely do.
 
If you do something like I've suggested (trade), you are giving them their 1-2-4 hitters around Yelich.  Their lineup gets much deeper. They can do something and probably keep that group around for 6 years at reasonable costs.  Build some stability in a small market.  
 
They have a couple of decent starters coming up. Depending on what version you run, they could wind up with one of the Dodgers young starters. You could wind up with a second tier Marlins starter. They could sign Lorenzen to a 1-ywear or 3-year deal to bridge out off of Burnes.
 
They have to spend more money (on top of Burnes/Adames 30M) to get on par with the other NLC teams.
 
The Orioles should certainly be willing to pay (now players) for the difference between Burnes and Lorenzen. 
The Brewers need to turn that difference into their infield and save a bunch of money.  

I think I’ve heard this song before. You’re not necessarily wrong but Matt Arnold, it looks like, has decided the Brewers have a chance with Burnes and Adames and no chance without them and some rookies and Lorentzen types to replace them. He’ll save the 30M or more when they walk at the end of the year (and get QA picks) OR look to deal each at the deadline depending on how things look.

The problem is you want Burnes to be available so bad. He’s not.

[BobPhelan]

Brewers just added Rhys Hoskins, Burnes isn’t going anywhere.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Brewers just added Rhys Hoskins, Burnes isn’t going anywhere.

The price for Cease isn't coming down. If anything its going up. Moves like this seem to take a potential trade piece, Burnes, out of the picture.

 

So what are the real improvement making SP that are still out there and maybe available?

 

FA - Snell and Montgomery

 

Trades - Cease and Luzardo

[Mackus]

The price for Cease isn't coming down. If anything its going up. Moves like this seem to take a potential trade piece, Burnes, out of the picture.

So what are the real improvement making SP that are still out there and maybe available?

FA - Snell and Montgomery

Trades - Cease and Luzardo

Price for Cease will either come down or he'll leave the market. I can't imagine why the White Sox would keep him, I don't think they are within a year of contention, but maybe they do. Or think they can get their ask at the deadline, which they could but only if Cease has a huge first half.

Still think it was a mistake to not be involved with Stroman or Imanaga. Those were better options than approaching the massive ask for Cease. But still could work out if Getz blinks first. Elias is gambling pretty hard here. Hope he is right.

[dude]

Brewers just added Rhys Hoskins, Burnes isn’t going anywhere.

 

You assume the issue in one direction, I'd suggest it's the other (ie the Orioles aren't willing to give up anything 'for a rental').

 

Hoskins is maybe the best thing left for them, but if you have to look for a recent comp for this type of thing, pick Conforto...and that's not working out for the Giants right now.

 

I don't hate Hoskins, but he has a ton of risk and you are paying cost on top of that.

 

I agree that once they make a move like this, they are moving on.

[RichardZ]

You assume the issue in one direction, I'd suggest it's the other (ie the Orioles aren't willing to give up anything 'for a rental').
 
Hoskins is maybe the best thing left for them, but if you have to look for a recent comp for this type of thing, pick Conforto...and that's not working out for the Giants right now.
 
I don't hate Hoskins, but he has a ton of risk and you are paying cost on top of that.
 
I agree that once they make a move like this, they are moving on.

The Brewers aren’t trading Burnes because the Orioles wouldn’t give them anything? Is that what you’re trying to sell now?

The Braves, Dodgers, Reds, Giants, and a bunch of other teams OR are we pinning this on just the Orioles?

Or we can deal with reality. The Brewers weren’t moving Burnes pre-season even at fair market value or even an overpay. They want to take a shot through July and see where they are. He wasn’t available and he’s not available. If he had been available, for sure, some teams would have taken a run at him.

[makoman]

The Brewers aren’t trading Burnes because the Orioles wouldn’t give them anything? Is that what you’re trying to sell now?
 

I think it's because Elias is an introvert that doesn't have any contacts in the game. Probably doesn't even know how to get in touch with the Brewers.

[RichardZ]

I think it's because Elias is an introvert that doesn't have any contacts in the game. Probably doesn't even know how to get in touch with the Brewers.

Right. We need someone who not only knows what’s best for the Orioles but knows what’s best for each of the other 29 teams in baseball, be able to convince each GM what they need to do, and then engineer some 3-4 team trades where everyone gets exactly what they need. It’s all about charisma, personality, leadership, and relationship building.

I think I know someone like that.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Its times like this where I wish there were infinite universes and I could watch any one I want. The one where dude is an MLB GM would be the most entertaining shit.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Its times like this where I wish there were infinite universes and I could watch any one I want. The one where dude is an MLB GM would be the most entertaining shit.

Yeah for a team you owned. Now that would be some prime pay per view right there.....lol

[CantonJester]

Brewers just added Rhys Hoskins, Burnes isn’t going anywhere.

 

I would’ve dealt Mounty for BP arms and signed Hoskins to play 1B the next couple seasons. Oh well. 

[RichardZ]

I would’ve dealt Mounty for BP arms and signed Hoskins to play 1B the next couple seasons. Oh well. 

I don’t get the logic there. You could:

1. Keep Mountcastle and sign Stephenson for the same overall money.

2. Trade Mountcastle for bullpen arms, use Santander and O’Hearn at 1B/DH and open up RF for Kjerstad or Cowser

3. Do what you suggest, spend an extra 11M this year, hope that Fangraphs is wrong (they project both players for 1.7 fwar AND hope those bullpen arms are damn good.

[CantonJester]

I don’t get the logic there. You could:

1. Keep Mountcastle and sign Stephenson for the same overall money.

2. Trade Mountcastle for bullpen arms, use Santander and O’Hearn at 1B/DH and open up RF for Kjerstad or Cowser

3. Do what you suggest, spend an extra 11M this year, hope that Fangraphs is wrong (they project both players for 1.7 fwar AND hope those bullpen arms are damn good.

 

The logic is that the chances of Hoskins outproducing a Mounty / O'Hearn tandem warranted freeing up a roster spot to obtain bp help for Mounty's services elsewhere. IMO O'Hearn is a replaceable asset. 

[RichardZ]

The logic is that the chances of Hoskins outproducing a Mounty / O'Hearn tandem warranted freeing up a roster spot to obtain bp help for Mounty's services elsewhere. IMO O'Hearn is a replaceable asset. 

But combining offense and defense, the chances are that Hoskins won’t significantly, if at all, out produce them. He’s about to be 31, coming off a major knee injury, is poor defensively, and would be coming from the cozy confines of Philly to Waltimore. His career OPS+ is 125. Mountcastle’s is 117. Factor in the defense and it’s a wash but you’d be spending more for Hoskins.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Yeah give me Mounty all day considering price, age and injury history. Not even close. Anything else you could do with Mounty isnt going to make up for the risk you are taking on Hoskins

[dude]

I would’ve dealt Mounty for BP arms and signed Hoskins to play 1B the next couple seasons. Oh well. 

 

Yeah, I'm of the same position as DickZ and WileE here.  No idea why you or anyone thinks Hoskins is a good add, especially at that cost.  That's an absolutely terrible deal for the Brewers. Maybe you give him 10M and a b/o out a team option and he can waive off the b/o and become a FA, but to absorb all of the downside....ugh. To wildly overpay for a guy that missed all of last year and if he's good (for 17M) he leaves and if he's not good you are stuck with a 34M bill.  Brewers are paying him absurdly to rehab for a couple years so he can sign with someone else.

 

In every real or projectable aspect (cost, performance, risk) Mountcastle > (or >>) than Hoskins.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

But combining offense and defense, the chances are that Hoskins won’t significantly, if at all, out produce them. He’s about to be 31, coming off a major knee injury, is poor defensively, and would be coming from the cozy confines of Philly to Waltimore. His career OPS+ is 125. Mountcastle’s is 117. Factor in the defense and it’s a wash but you’d be spending more for Hoskins.

You think its cute that he called you DickZ. He doesnt make anything personal though.

[dude]

The Braves, Dodgers, Reds, Giants, and a bunch of other teams OR are we pinning this on just the Orioles?

 

I'd guess everyone checks in.  I 100% don't think they are trading him for prospect value, so you'd need to meet up with them somewhere in now-type talent.  Dodgers did a deal for Glasnow and spent money so not sure why they'd be in....they did what the wanted to do....but the Dodgers/Glasnow does kind of set up the cost for a 1-year deal.  I'd suggest they gave up almost nothing and the Brewers are/were certainly looking for a bigger package than that.  Reds have the same Division challenge. What can the Giants offer? What can the Braves offer?

 

This feels more like the Reds reaching for Montas or the Braves settling for a Sale dump.

 

Matt Arnold picked another direction (cool) and he got taken behind the woodshed by Boras here. I'd give Mancini 6M before I gave Hoskins this crazy deal.  Rhys may come back fully, but it's unlikely to be this year.