1227 replies to this topic

[Biggsy]

For what it's worth:

PFF had Lamar getting blitzed on 69% or his dropbacks. On those, he was 12-17 for 117 yards 1 TD and no INT. He was sacked 3 times. Of the 5 incompletions, one was dropped (Agholar), one was batted and one was thrown away.


Next Gen stats was slightly different. They had him facing a blitz on 75% or his dropbacks. And going 13-18 for 120 yards and 2 TD's. They also had a graphic showing that in the first half, Lamars time-to-throw was 3.51 seconds. In the second half it was 2.25 seconds.

Apparently Lamar went to Monken and Martin at halftime and told them they needed to scrap the gameplan of pushing the ball downfield. And they needed to call shorter routes designed to get the ball out quick.

All great signs.

[Slidemaster]

The "Lamar can't pass" narrative is about as old as the "Lamar is a running back" narrative.

Please KC, come.in here and stack the box every play. See what happens.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

This will def come down to which offense performs the best. Good offense beats good defense. We arent shutting down Mahomes. Hes unlikely to make a big mistake. He loathes to take sacks. Our offense has to put its big boy pants on. Thats not to say our defense cant slow him down but I think its gonna have to be stops in the redzone. Control the game as best as possible on offense and get redzone stops

[makoman]

This will def come down to which offense performs the best. Good offense beats good defense. We arent shutting down Mahomes. Hes unlikely to make a big mistake. He loathes to take sacks. Our offense has to put its big boy pants on. Thats not to say our defense cant slow him down but I think its gonna have to be stops in the redzone. Control the game as best as possible on offense and get redzone stops

That's what we've done all year. 2nd in the league in defensive red zone %, 41%. The Chiefs are 17th offensively, 54%. So, just keep it up.

[cprenegade]

For what it's worth:

PFF had Lamar getting blitzed on 69% or his dropbacks. On those, he was 12-17 for 117 yards 1 TD and no INT. He was sacked 3 times. Of the 5 incompletions, one was dropped (Agholar), one was batted and one was thrown away.


Next Gen stats was slightly different. They had him facing a blitz on 75% or his dropbacks. And going 13-18 for 120 yards and 2 TD's. They also had a graphic showing that in the first half, Lamars time-to-throw was 3.51 seconds. In the second half it was 2.25 seconds.

Apparently Lamar went to Monken and Martin at halftime and told them they needed to scrap the gameplan of pushing the ball downfield. And they needed to call shorter routes designed to get the ball out quick.

All great signs.

 

I said that in the game thread.  It looked to me like the receivers were running routes that took too long to develop.  In the second half they shortened it up and the offense started to click better.

 

Also, all of that blitzing comes with a price.   By late in the third quarter and into the 4th, Houston's defense was running on empty.  You could see they were physically gassed.  

[85Knight]

I'm pretty confident that the Ravens defense will slow the Chiefs down. They are playing on another level right now. If the Chiefs allow the Ravens to run on them like the Bills did last night there's no way they're winning this game.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

The over under is only 44.5. Thats lower than I expected tbh. I expected high 40s. So if we think that this is gonna be tight lets just go with 3 points one way or the other then you are looking at 24-21. 23-20. Or within a 7 point game something like 24-17. Or 24-20. Im thinking its higher scoring than this but Vegas also seems to think both defenses show up to some extent.

[Slidemaster]

The over under is only 44.5. Thats lower than I expected tbh. I expected high 40s. So if we think that this is gonna be tight lets just go with 3 points one way or the other then you are looking at 24-21. 23-20. Or within a 7 point game something like 24-17. Or 24-20. Im thinking its higher scoring than this but Vegas also seems to think both defenses show up to some extent.

I think 24-20 is right on target for a good score prediction.

[Biggsy]

The over under is only 44.5. Thats lower than I expected tbh. I expected high 40s. So if we think that this is gonna be tight lets just go with 3 points one way or the other then you are looking at 24-21. 23-20. Or within a 7 point game something like 24-17. Or 24-20. Im thinking its higher scoring than this but Vegas also seems to think both defenses show up to some extent.

I imagine it's set there because both teams like to run the ball, and play a ball control style. When the Ravens are rolling, they're usually going 12+ plays for 7+ mins for a TD. KC has also been more of a grinding team on offense as well. If both offenses show up, and they both go 7+ mins on scoring drives, I imagine it will be a lower scoring game.

[jamesdean]

I imagine it's set there because both teams like to run the ball, and play a ball control style. When the Ravens are rolling, they're usually going 12+ plays for 7+ mins for a TD. KC has also been more of a grinding team on offense as well. If both offenses show up, and they both go 7+ mins on scoring drives, I imagine it will be a lower scoring game.

Weather could be a huge factor too.  If it's raining, ball control is going to be top priority with shots downfield at a bare minimum. I'd like to think a slop game would favor the Ravens but they still have to stop KC's running game either way. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Meh. I think we have more speed. More explosive athletes on offense. I think rain probably hurts more than helps. Im glad its gonna be warm and hopefully its dry too.

[jamesdean]

Per Steve Young....

 

VRC - Product - Closer to the World - :15 - 16x9 - Paid (youtube.com)

[hallas]

Just read through some KC boards. Seems they think the media loves the Ravens, and all of the pressure is on Lamar to win. And they're playing with house money.

Also seems that most KC fans think Lamar is completely incapable of passing the ball at all. Most saying to stack 8 in the box and play press man with Sneed and McDuffie on islands. I really wish the coaches for KC thought that way. Not many WR's this season have gained more separation against man than Flowers and Bateman this season. As good as Sneed and McDuffie are, trying to consistently man up a guy like Flowers isn't easy. Kid is lightning quick, and runs great routes.

I really think Spagnuolo brings a lot of blitzes though. They'll have Gay as a spy. However if they come in with no respect for Lamar's arm, they'll get beat.

 

I think that there is a lot of logic to stacking the box and playing rush contain and forcing Lamar to beat you with his arm, even if you know he is a high level passer.  If Lamar is going to go to his hot read every single time there is a hot rusher, I think KC accepts the Ravens dinking and donking them for 5 yards on every blitz.  Even if that means that sometimes you're a Likely stiff arm away from a 20 yard gain.  It certainly beats sending 4, failing to generate pressure, and Lamar breaking contain and either scrambling for 20, or making some stupid magic happen downfield for a big gain.  Lamar's the most dynamic playmaker on the field, and if you force him to throw the ball short, you're forcing a less dynamic playmaker into making a play to move the chains.  Also, that's a lot more opportunities for the Ravens receivers to screw up, or for KC's (good) defensive backs to make a play.

[Biggsy]

I think that there is a lot of logic to stacking the box and playing rush contain and forcing Lamar to beat you with his arm, even if you know he is a high level passer. If Lamar is going to go to his hot read every single time there is a hot rusher, I think KC accepts the Ravens dinking and donking them for 5 yards on every blitz. Even if that means that sometimes you're a Likely stiff arm away from a 20 yard gain. It certainly beats sending 4, failing to generate pressure, and Lamar breaking contain and either scrambling for 20, or making some stupid magic happen downfield for a big gain. Lamar's the most dynamic playmaker on the field, and if you force him to throw the ball short, you're forcing a less dynamic playmaker into making a play to move the chains. Also, that's a lot more opportunities for the Ravens receivers to screw up, or for KC's (good) defensive backs to make a play.

I don't disagree. If I'm scheming against Lamar, that's probably what I'd do too. Make him get it out quick, and make someone else consistently beat you. Lamar is going to have to trust his teammates to make the play? I imagine Spagnuolo is going into this game with the same thought process.

In the past, this worked great. Mainly because he didn't have the playmakers on the outside that could consistently win. Brown was good, but he was a terrible YAC guy. Snead, Robinson, Proche, Duvernay ect just weren't guys that were going to consistently win. So teams would do exactly what you said, and they'd flood coverage to Andrews, and they'd make our secondary guys have to win. This season, I'd say that's the huge difference. Flowers, Bateman, OBJ, Likely and to a point Agohlar have all popped up when needed, and made some huge plays. The minute you forget about OBJ, he hits you on a couple quick slants. Or Bateman or Agohlar pops up 20 yards down field. All of that on top of Flowers and Likely's ability to take a short pass, and make it a long gain.

Teams haven't just stopped doing this to Lamar. It just hasn't been working as well. The only game it did, Lamar's secondary playmakers dropped like 4 TD's against Pittsburgh and the Ravens lost an ugly game.

I think OBJ is going to have a big part Sunday if I'm being honest. KC is going to line McDuffie over top of Flowers all night. If they line Sneed up on Bateman, I think OBJ becomes a killer out of the slot. I really don't think KC fans understand that this isn't the same Ravens offensive roster that they're used to seeing. Lamar has plenty if playmakers that can win this game.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

It will be interesting. The key matchup is their D vs our O. Who wins between Spagnola and Monken.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

We got to be firing on all cylinders or damn close to it. To be the man youve got to be the man. Take it as the utimate challenge. The one place Im supremely confident is that our HC will have this team ready. Hes 3 for 3 in well prepared well coached championship games. 2008, 2011, 2012 were games we either won or were in position to win late. 2 of which were in Foxboro against the GOATs so hes not gonna shrink from the task. Its on the players to follow the lead.

[You Play to Win the Game]

If Baltimore loses to this version of KC, it will be because we didn’t play well. It’s really that simple. I’m not going to get all worked up all week and dissect every angle. I firmly believe we’re substantially better than they are this year. It’s the playoffs, so anything can happen, but just control what you can control. Play well, advance. What KC has accomplished in the past is mostly irrelevant to me wrt Sunday.

[hallas]

This is a hard ask I think for Lamar's skillset, because he's not the best at throwing floaters with touch, but I would love for the Ravens to incorporate a slant-and-go, or out-and-go as a hot route, and have Lamar float behind the defenders against a zero blitz.  Guys like Bateman and Flowers win enough that I think they can pull it off, and it would completely neuter any heavy blitzing strategy.  Right now Monken's go-to against a blitz is a ball in the flat, or some quick slant, or a quick out or short dig route.  A lot of those play to Lamar's strengths, and they work, so maybe there's not much reason to change, but hoo boy if he can get it behind the defense on blitzes we'd put up 50 points every game.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I love the AFC title game.

The Super Bowl is too much hoopla. Parties. The commercials. People pretending they like to gamble. Usually indoors or in good weather. Uniforms stay clean. It’s too much.

Gimme the AFC title game any day of the week.

That’s my hot take for today.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I love the AFC title game.

The Super Bowl is too much hoopla. Parties. The commercials. People pretending they like to gamble. Usually indoors or in good weather. Uniforms stay clean. It’s too much.

Gimme the AFC title game any day of the week.

That’s my hot take for today.

For sure. This week is the last genuine football week.