1227 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

The Ravens open as a 3 point favorite. 

 

Defending Super Bowl Champion KC is in the AFC Championship Game for the 6th consecutive season. 

 

Gametime temp expected to be 49 degrees.

[Slidemaster]

Unreal that KC is here yet again. I can't say I'm surprised. They cannot be underestimated.

But I believe the Ravens are better.

[BSLChrisStoner]

ESPN: https://www.espn.com...chedule-nfc-afc

 

What to know: The ideal ingredients for winning in the postseason would seem to be an elite quarterback and an elite defense. That brings us to the Ravens, just the fourth team since the 1970 merger to have a first-team All-Pro quarterback and the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL. The three previous teams to do so -- the 1972 Dolphins, 1978 Steelers and 1996 Packers -- all went on to win the Super Bowl.

 

That's the combination of factors working in the Ravens' favor next Sunday. With quarterback Lamar Jackson coming off a historic performance against the Texans (two rushing TDs and two TD passes) and the Ravens' defense limiting Houston to its second-lowest yardage total of the season (213), this feels like a truly complete team.

But don't expect the Chiefs to be the least bit fazed by any of this after overcoming the Bills on the road in another memorable matchup between the budding rivals. After being treated to one premier quarterback matchup in Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen on Sunday, the AFC playoffs will serve up another in the championship game, when Mahomes and the Chiefs visit Jackson the Ravens.

 

The Chiefs are 3-2 in AFC title games with Mahomes under center. But there's a key difference this season: The Chiefs have arguably the best defense in the Mahomes era. They finished the season second in scoring defense and yards allowed. No Kansas City team has been higher than seventh in either metric in Mahomes' tenure. -- Holder

 

Why the Ravens will win: Both sides of the ball are on fire for Baltimore. Let's start with the defense, where the Ravens allowed zero offensive touchdowns in the divisional round against the Texans. The Ravens' defense didn't blink against Houston the way the Browns did in the wild-card round, and the unit was dominant, particularly against the run, where Baltimore allowed negative-0.29 EPA per play. It's nothing new for the Ravens' defense, which now ranks first in EPA per play over the course of the season, playoffs included.

 

Despite the name brand of the Chiefs, the reality of this matchup is that Baltimore's defense has been much, much better than the Kansas City offense. The Chiefs were ranked 10th in EPA per play entering Sunday.

Offensively, the Ravens are on almost as strong of a roll. They were good all season, and kicked it up a notch in the playoffs. Jackson posted 94 QBR against Houston, and on his run plays or dropbacks, the Ravens accrued 0.41 EPA per play. In other words, every five of Jackson's plays added two full points to the Ravens' expected scoring margin.

 

The Chiefs' defense will provide more resistance than Houston did, but Kansas City ranked 11th in EPA per play allowed against opposing QB scrambles or runs. And overall, the Chiefs are simply weaker against the run, ranking 26th in EPA per opponent designed carry. It could be another big day for Jackson. -- Walder

 

Why the Chiefs will win: It's still Mahomes with the best defense he has ever had. The Chiefs still have Andy Reid calling plays, a breakout receiver in Rashee Rice and an offensive line that protects Mahomes. And tight end Travis Kelce just had two touchdowns in the divisional round.

 

Despite all that has gone wrong this season -- most notably the receivers' league-worst 5.7% drop rate entering Sunday and their inability to support Mahomes and the offense at an elite level -- all of the above means the Chiefs have a chance to score plenty of points in the AFC Championship Game. Plus, while the Ravens led the league in sacks in the regular season, Mahomes simply refuses to take them. His 3.9% sack rate and 13.8% sack-to-pressure rate rank second in the NFL behind Allen.

 

And while Buffalo moved the ball at will at times against the Chiefs, the long-view of the defense is it is still one of the best groups in the league, ranking fourth in EPA per play allowed. In the end, Kansas City kept the Bills out of the end zone, too.

 

The Chiefs are underdogs and deservedly so, but they just beat Baltimore's biggest challenger in the AFC. They can beat the Ravens themselves, too. -- Walder

[Biggsy]

Step 1: Stop Pacheco
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit

[BSLChrisStoner]

CBS Sports: https://www.cbssport...erence-finales/

 

The matchup: Call it a heavyweight showdown. The Ravens are making their 11th playoff appearance in 16 years under coach John Harbaugh, fresh off a cruise to the AFC's top seed and quarterback Lamar Jackson's second MVP bid in four seasons. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have advanced to their sixth straight conference title game, aiming for a fourth Super Bowl bid in six years.

 

The talent: Baltimore is as complete as they come, with Lamar Jackson adding improved passing efficiency to an already-electric rushing game under center. His weapons are shifty and speedy, but more impressive is his defensive support, courtesy of a Roquan Smith-led unit that surrendered the fewest points of any team in 2023. The Chiefs still have the game's most clutch QB in Patrick Mahomes, alongside the physical duo of ball-carrier Isiah Pacheco and safety valve Travis Kelce. More than that, they've got one of their best defenses of the Andy Reid era, with Chris Jones, L'Jarius Sneed and Justin Reid headlining the stingy unit.

 

The journey: The Ravens went 13-4 to win the AFC North -- and the AFC's No. 1 seed -- for the first time since 2019, then trounced the emergent Texans, 34-10, in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs finished 11-6, their worst mark in six years, but cruised past the Dolphins, 26-7, in the wild-card round before outlasting the Bills, 27-24, in Mahomes' first-ever road playoff game.

 

Early prediction: Plenty of fans will be pulling for Baltimore just for the sake of watching someone other than the Chiefs fight for the Lombardi Trophy, and certainly the Ravens defense has the tools to keep things tight. But even with Lamar Jackson, Baltimore was uneven with the ball to open its game against Houston, and K.C.'s "D" under Steve Spagnuolo has been far stingier. Jackson's play-making rivals that of Mahomes, but like Tom Brady in his prime, No. 15 can't be written off. Pick: Chiefs 24, Ravens 20

[Slidemaster]

Of course KC is the pick. Mahomes is the new Brady and Reid is the new Belichick.

[Biggsy]

Seriously though. As crazy as it sounds, the KC offense runs through Pacheco this season. When teams have shut him down, (or he was out due to injury) KC's offense struggled. Mahomes is Mahomes. And Reid is Reid. But they simply don't have the playmakers on the outside. Rice is a baller, but he's not a big play guy.

If the offense can stay hot and just keep doing what they do, Ravens should win again. But it is Mahomes. And KC has a legit defense this year. Probably going to be a lower scoring, close game. Just can't see Mahomes letting his team get blown out in a AFC Championship game.

I'd almost be tempted to have Hamilton follow Kelce exclusively. Doubt Macdonald does that. But if you lock up Kelce, and stop Pacheco, all Mahomes has is Rice and his legs.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Of course KC is the pick. Mahomes is the new Brady and Reid is the new Belichick.

I mean yeah. They are. I literally told Ricker that NE lost in the playoffs too. But this is gonna take a complete effort. I told him it will take 27 at minimum to win. 

[You Play to Win the Game]

KC 17 - 31 Baltimore

[TwentyThirtyFive]

So now after winning this round  the bye week may loom large though KC essentially rested players in Week 18. Still theyve played 1 more game to this point and  it was a good point to note that this was an emotionally draining game for KC. It took a great effort to win and they also suffered some injuries. We will see if any are significant. Its not easy to shoot your wad one week and be able to come back the next week and be as sharp. I think there is reason to believe we wont get KCs A game. 

[85Knight]

Ravens 30 KC 24

[BSLChrisStoner]

Also an extra day of rest for the Ravens.

[cprenegade]

KC is the new version of New England.  Six straight AFCC appearances is unreal.  Mahomes is scary.  But also what is scary is the way KC can control the game and keep it close.  They did that with Buffalo tonight.  Their defense is better than Buffalo just because of the depletion on Buffalo's part.  Andy Reid can out coach most other coaches.  This is not a great or an unstoppable team, but they are experienced and they don't panic.  

 

Next week depends on the Ravens getting the lead.  You saw tonight how the Chiefs hung around, made adjustments and were able to win the game. 

[Ravens2006]

Reid will be looking for ways to get Kelce singled up on Queen. McDonald should be looking for ways to avoid that ever happening.

[cprenegade]

I said last night I though Ravens - 3.5 over Buffalo, Ravens - 4 to 4.5 over KC.  Looks like it's 3.5.  I think I would take Ravens - 3.5 and then maybe back up with money line KC.  Ravens will either beat the spread or lose out right.  

[TwentyThirtyFive]

KC is the new version of New England. Six straight AFCC appearances is unreal. Mahomes is scary. But also what is scary is the way KC can control the game and keep it close. They did that with Buffalo tonight. Their defense is better than Buffalo just because of the depletion on Buffalo's part. Andy Reid can out coach most other coaches. This is not a great or an unstoppable team, but they are experienced and they don't panic.

Next week depends on the Ravens getting the lead. You saw tonight how the Chiefs hung around, made adjustments and were able to win the game.

I think it was Romo who talked about how brillant NE and now KC are at just playing the clock game. They are A++ managers of games. Like other than our 2009 route in NE
was there another time a playoff game got away from Brady and Bellichick. Probably so but I dont remember one off the top of my head. Certainly was extremely rare. I guess our 2012 AFC Champ game kinda ended up getting away from them late too. Anyway, same thing with KC. They can control and manage the game like bosses

[Biggsy]

KC is the new version of New England. Six straight AFCC appearances is unreal. Mahomes is scary. But also what is scary is the way KC can control the game and keep it close. They did that with Buffalo tonight. Their defense is better than Buffalo just because of the depletion on Buffalo's part. Andy Reid can out coach most other coaches. This is not a great or an unstoppable team, but they are experienced and they don't panic.

Next week depends on the Ravens getting the lead. You saw tonight how the Chiefs hung around, made adjustments and were able to win the game.

For much of the game, Buffalo looked like the better overall team. Especially when they had the drive where they just ran it down KC's throat and scored the TD in the 3rd quarter.

But KC kind of did what Pittsburgh did all season. Hung around. Did what they had to do, when they had to do it. Made the other team make the mistakes.

I feel like the Ravens are the better team. And if they can avoid turnovers again, and any unforced errors, they can be almost unbeatable. Hopefully Lamar can feel a little less pressure to perform by getting the big playoff win off of his back. If he can come in, play within the offense. Trust his playmakers to make the plays for him when they're called on. Ravens roll again. If Lamar feels the pressure, and starts holding the ball, playing scared, or trying to do too much, this is KC's game.

Lamar needs to understand that he has a top defense, and he has playmakers that can make stuff happen with the ball in their hands. Just get it there. Be superman when you have to be. But let your teammates help you too.

Feel like this is a statement game for Roquan and Hamilton as well. Hamilton has his chance to put his stamp on this game, and introduce himself as the next elite defender in the NFL. Really hope he has a huge game.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Im telling you with this performance some of the pressure is off the Ravens. Media is gonna go back to slurping Mahomes and the Chiefs. More pundits will pick them than Baltimore. It may be close but Im telling you the picks will favor KC.  I think takes some pressure off. it also gives this BMore team some fuel. IM really glad that the KC performance was that good in a lot of ways.

[cprenegade]

I think the pressure is still on Baltimore.  They have been the dominant AFC team all year long.   The only thing I can think of is Herb Brooks in the second intermission of the Gold medal game in 1980.  "Lose this game and you will take it to your grave."  At home, with another dominant team, if the Ravens lose they will still be chasing their ultimate goal.  This is an opportunity.  Need to close.  

 

On the other hand, if KC does win and goes on to another SB, what an amazing run they will have.  

[Mike in STL]

I think the pressure is still on Baltimore. They have been the dominant AFC team all year long. The only thing I can think of is Herb Brooks in the second intermission of the Gold medal game in 1980. "Lose this game and you will take it to your grave." At home, with another dominant team, if the Ravens lose they will still be chasing their ultimate goal. This is an opportunity. Need to close.

On the other hand, if KC does win and goes on to another SB, what an amazing run they will have.

I like another Herb Brooks quote. (At least from the movie)
“I’m sick and tired of hearing about what a great team the Soviets have. Screw em’. This is our time.”

Applicable. Definitely tired of seeing the Chiefs win and win and win some more.