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Orioles.com: 24 bold predictions for O's '24 campaign


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#21 SonicAttack

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 11:12 AM

 We can deal Basallo, Cowser, Ortiz and Povich for Cease and Mayo, Bradfield, Norby, McDermott, Kjerstad for Luzardo and then let Kremer and Means fight it out for the 5th spot. That’s all-in. Like it?

I don't like those trade scenarios, that's $.70 in return.  



#22 RichardZ

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 11:16 AM

Let’s forget payroll for a second. None of us believe they would pay up for Stroman who is probably one of the few fairly affordable pitchers you can spin as a #3 or better. Not sure who you had in mind but if they are better than Stroman it’s probably even more unrealistic. That’s reality. You can complain. Not sure what good it will do you.

I have no idea what the WS are asking for Cease or the Marlins for Luzardo or whoever else. Are you okay with trading Holliday in a deal? I’ll assume an “absolutely not”. Is anyone else off limits. Are you ok dealing Basallo or Mayo + to get what you want? Who do think is available and attainable?

#23 RichardZ

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 11:17 AM

I don't think those prospects you mention are good enough to plan on building a bridge to them in 2024.


Ok. McDermott looked pretty good in AAA. Mid 90’s, good breaking stuff, developing splitter. I wouldn’t count on him 100% but I wouldn’t count him out either. Povich and Johnson are longer shots IMO.

#24 RichardZ

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 11:19 AM

I don't like those trade scenarios, that's $.70 in return.  


They were meant to be extreme examples to make a point.

#25 Mackus

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 11:20 AM

Let’s forget payroll for a second. None of us believe they would pay up for Stroman who is probably one of the few fairly affordable pitchers you can spin as a #3 or better. Not sure who you had in mind but if they are better than Stroman it’s probably even more unrealistic. That’s reality. You can complain. Not sure what good it will do you.

I have no idea what the WS are asking for Cease or the Marlins for Luzardo or whoever else. Are you okay with trading Holliday in a deal? I’ll assume an “absolutely not”. Is anyone else off limits. Are you ok dealing Basallo or Mayo + to get what you want? Who do think is available and attainable?

Stroman counts for me. Imanaga and Montgomery and Snell as well. Those are the remaining FAs that I think are good enough.

I wouldn't deal Holliday for any of the guys being mentioned. I'd do Mayo or Basallo (not both) in a Luzardo deal, but not in a Cease deal. I would deal multiple of Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Cowser, Kjerstad in a Cease deal (not necessarily "pick 2"). I don't think it should take two of them for Burnes, but I'd think about it.

#26 mweb08

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 11:23 AM

I plead ignorance. I honestly don’t know what you’re saying here.


You said Wells buys time for Povich, Johnson, and McDermott. I wouldn't make moves this offseason with the thought of having any of those guys deserving the opportunity to make the rotation this season.

#27 RichardZ

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 11:30 AM

Stroman counts for me. Imanaga and Montgomery and Snell as well. Those are the remaining FAs that I think are good enough.
I wouldn't deal Holliday for any of the guys being mentioned. I'd do Mayo or Basallo (not both) in a Luzardo deal, but not in a Cease deal. I would deal multiple of Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Cowser, Kjerstad in a Cease deal (not necessarily "pick 2").


So, if the WS insist on Basallo, it’s not a failure if Elias passes. Just saying.

I would go as far as Cowser/Kjerstad, Ortiz/Norby, and Povich for Cease. That’s one of each and Povich. Then again I trust Elias if he’s super high on one of the guys we’ve mentioned and won’t budge off of him.

Pitchers break and that’s the issue I have with trading Mayo or Basallo in a Luzardo deal. It would be a bitter pill but I wouldn’t rule it out completely. I just don’t have a problem if Elias decides it’s a pill he doesn’t want to swallow.

#28 Mackus

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 11:34 AM

So, if the WS insist on Basallo, it’s not a failure if Elias passes. Just saying.

It's not a failure to say no to any one deal.

It is a failure to say no to all possible deals and end up with nobody (or some fringy back-end SP).

We've gotta land a good SP. Since we've taken the Kimbrel route at closer, it's not possible to have a good off-season without adding a good SP. Had they signed Hader or traded for someone like Clase, then I think you could feel positively about the off-season even if they only brought in a #4/5 SP.

#29 RichardZ

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 11:34 AM

You said Wells buys time for Povich, Johnson, and McDermott. I wouldn't make moves this offseason with the thought of having any of those guys deserving the opportunity to make the rotation this season.


I would prefer getting a solid starter at a price I consider reasonable. Absent that I would be okay with Wells and seeing where that takes us.

#30 RichardZ

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 11:38 AM

It's not a failure to say no to any one deal.
It is a failure to say no to all possible deals and end up with nobody (or some fringy back-end SP).
We've gotta land a good SP. Since we've taken the Kimbrel route at closer, it's not possible to have a good off-season without adding a good SP. Had they signed Hader or traded for someone like Clase, then I think you could feel positively about the off-season even if they only brought in a #4/5 SP.


We don’t gotta do it. I agree it probably behooves us to do it. I just don’t agree with:

1. We have to
2. No excuses if we don’t
3. Complete failure if we don’t

#31 mweb08

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 11:51 AM

When we get to 'Grade the Offseason' time we'll see some excuses for inaction if nothing significant gets done. Now I'm a teacher, and when giving a grade for an assignment or for a quarter, it's based on certain expectations. For this offseason, the primary expectations for an acceptable offseason were to bring in a top half of the rotation starter and a good replacement for Felix.

There's more to that which myself and many have talked about a lot, but those were two things that needed to happen for the offseason to be graded positively barringsome surprising and great moves otherwise. Part of that is how incredibly realistic, easy even, it should be to accomplish that given all the available players, the wealth of trade assets, and the hoarded treasure in the warehouse that is in danger of being attacked by a dragon. How much Elias can tap into the treasure is unknown and there's rightful skepticism there, so I'll be good with handing out a shared grade to Elias and Angelos for their achievement level this offseason.

#32 BSLSteveBirrer

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 11:54 AM

We don’t gotta do it. I agree it probably behooves us to do it. I just don’t agree with:

1. We have to
2. No excuses if we don’t
3. Complete failure if we don’t

Are you an Angelos?


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#33 Mackus

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 12:01 PM

We don’t gotta do it. I agree it probably behooves us to do it. I just don’t agree with:

1. We have to
2. No excuses if we don’t
3. Complete failure if we don’t

I can't accept the scenario where there isn't a single smart move to be made to bring in a good SP. So yes, I definitely think it would be a failure to not make such an addition either through trade or free agency.
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#34 Pedro Cerrano

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 12:10 PM

Just go sign someone. Screw these teams that are trying to pillage us
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#35 Mackus

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 12:18 PM


Just go sign someone. Screw these teams that are trying to pillage us

Would be so exciting if Angelos changed his stripes and authorized a deal for Montgomery or Imanaga.

Wish in one hand...

#36 Mackus

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 12:19 PM

Stroman doesn't seem completely unrealistic to me even with the Angelos factor. His cost should be down enough that maybe he's in that contract range they were repeatedly offering Bassitt a year ago.
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#37 makoman

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 12:21 PM

Let’s forget payroll for a second. None of us believe they would pay up for Stroman who is probably one of the few fairly affordable pitchers you can spin as a #3 or better. Not sure who you had in mind but if they are better than Stroman it’s probably even more unrealistic. That’s reality. You can complain. Not sure what good it will do you.

I have no idea what the WS are asking for Cease or the Marlins for Luzardo or whoever else. Are you okay with trading Holliday in a deal? I’ll assume an “absolutely not”. Is anyone else off limits. Are you ok dealing Basallo or Mayo + to get what you want? Who do think is available and attainable?

Stroman is projected by MLBTR at 2/44, by fangraphs at 3/66. If those deals are impossible we might as well just shut it down until the family sells. Trading for someone is ideal, but if everyone is asking for stupid deals then just sign Stroman and call it a day, that is adequate IMO. I'm not asking for any of the guys who want 9 figure deals, but he seems plausible and he's an acceptable option.


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#38 mikezpen

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 12:27 PM

I didn't see the Yankees trade their top prospects for a superstar. I don't see teams gutting their farm systems in trades. And I don't think the Orioles s/do it. They s/look at their 25-man for trade material too and combine that w/prospects.. I'd move Mountcastle (FA27), Santander (FA-25) or Mullins (FA26) in either a 3-way or direct package if the deal was right.You could get a good prospect or 2 from any one of the three and include them in the trade if that's the demand.They won't be kept anyway, and their clocks are ticking. Don't be forced to dump their salaries for nothing later on.



#39 TwentyThirtyFive

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 12:30 PM

I think Stroman is likely possible for ELias to do. 

 

I have to ask myself at times would I rather have a top of the line pipeline like this and an ownership who wont spend or an owner like Moreno who will spend money but cant put competent baseball people in place  if his life depended on it. I think its the former. I know the hope is you get both. Anyway, in the short term this team can compete for a World title despite Angelos's extreme penny  pinching and thats awesome despite knowing the window might be small and he wont do nearly enough to raise the chances of winning a championship



#40 Mackus

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Posted 06 January 2024 - 12:37 PM


I didn't see the Yankees trade their top prospects for a superstar. I don't see teams gutting their farm systems in trades. And I don't think the Orioles s/do it. They s/look at their 25-man for trade material too. and combine that w/prospects.. I'd move Mountcastle, Santander or Mullins in either a 3-way or direct package if the deal was right.They won't be kept anyway, and their clocks are ticking. Don't be forced to dump their salaries for nothing later on.

Depends on the target. The White Sox probably aren't interested in guys like Hays or Mountcastle since they are mostly tearing down and would want longer term assets. The Marlins probably would be since they're just reshuffling and still looking to compete.




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