62 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

Orioles.com: 24 bold predictions for O's '24 campaign

https://www.mlb.com/...ons-2024-season

[dude]

I've never published this many predictions, so maybe I don't know how to do it, but I don't think I'd make a list of predictions that are in conflict with one another.

 

Apparently, MLB has authorized the Orioles a 30-man roster and can play more than 9 guys in the field.

 

If we can play more than 9 in the field that would be really helpful.  I like it. Bold.

[mikezpen]

Submitting some early Orioles predictions - Blog (masnsports.com)

 

Roch's predictions are depressing. Predicts the O's get a SP who's a mediocrity who fits nicely below the #3 spot in the rotation.  The kids all start the season in the minors. Yuck.

[Mackus]

I don't like the "would start on Opening Day" criteria.  That's kind of arbitrary.  Bradish and Rodriguez are both better than Cease, IMO, but I'd still be happy to acquire Cease.  Burnes is the only guy that's clearly a superior SP to the two already here.  

 

I think we all know the names that would count as a legit SP addition.  Falling short of one of those names would be extremely disappointing and hard to justify (though I'm certain many will try).

[RichardZ]

I don't like the "would start on Opening Day" criteria.  That's kind of arbitrary.  Bradish and Rodriguez are both better than Cease, IMO, but I'd still be happy to acquire Cease.  Burnes is the only guy that's clearly a superior SP to the two already here.  
 
I think we all know the names that would count as a legit SP addition.  Falling short of one of those names would be extremely disappointing and hard to justify (though I'm certain many will try).

I’d be okay with getting a reliever or having Tate back if I knew he was healthy, and starting the year off with Wells in the rotation.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

When it comes to Wells I think it boils down to this.

 

Do you want him in the rotation for about a half a year before the wheels fall off or do you want him in the bullpen for hopefully the whole season? Now maybe the staff has figured out why he totally runs out of gas and can manage him as a starter which would be great. I am just not hopeful.

[Mackus]

I’d be okay with getting a reliever or having Tate back if I knew he was healthy, and starting the year off with Wells in the rotation.

Absolutely not, IMO. That'd be a job very poorly done by Elias.

[RichardZ]

Absolutely not, IMO. That'd be a job very poorly done by Elias.

If the price for Cease, Luzardo, etc. is excessive then it’s a bad job to pay it. We aren’t desperate and shouldn’t act like it. Wells was better than Cease pre-all star break last year. Wells buys time for McDermott/Povich/Johnson.

I agree that first choice is getting a solid starter but not at any price.

[Mackus]

If the price for Cease, Luzardo, etc. is excessive then it’s a bad job to pay it. We aren’t desperate and shouldn’t act like it. Wells was better than Cease pre-all star break last year. Wells buys time for McDermott/Povich/Johnson.

I agree that first choice is getting a solid starter but not at any price.

If the price in trade is too excessive then they need to sign a FA SP. No SP upgrade cannot be excused or accepted.

[RichardZ]

When it comes to Wells I think it boils down to this.
 
Do you want him in the rotation for about a half a year before the wheels fall off or do you want him in the bullpen for hopefully the whole season? Now maybe the staff has figured out why he totally runs out of gas and can manage him as a starter which would be great. I am just not hopeful.

One problem. He didn’t last the full year in 2021 as a reliever either. There’s no guarantee that relieving is going to be any easier on his arm or whatever the problem is.

[RichardZ]

If the price in trade is too excessive then they need to sign a FA SP. No SP upgrade cannot be excused or accepted.

Haha. Ok. Don’t accept it. Elias will be a failure and you won’t excuse it but the team can still go out and win a lot of games with Bradish, GRod, Means, Kremer, and Wells. As long as the bullpen holds up!

[Mackus]

We could cut Rutschman and Henderson and still make the playoffs. Wouldn't make that smart roster building.

Team is in a great position and with the amount of margin they have in both prospects and salary there is no good excuse to not optimize their chances, and that means bringing in another really good SP. Elias is in a tough spot in that Angelos won't let him spend because he doesn't prioritize winning. So trade may be the only route available because of that. Elias has gotta be willing to pay the price if that's the case. I won't buy that every trade partner is insisting on Holliday or else they'll trade their assets elsewhere for 80 cents on the dollar.

[RichardZ]

We could cut Rutschman and Henderson and still make the playoffs. Wouldn't make that smart roster building.
Team is in a great position and with the amount of margin they have in both prospects and salary there is no good excuse to not optimize their chances, and that means bringing in another really good SP. Elias is in a tough spot in that Angelos won't let him spend because he doesn't prioritize winning. So trade may be the only route available because of that. Elias has gotta be willing to pay the price if that's the case.

Your way or the Highway. Got it.

[Mackus]

Your way or the Highway. Got it.

I don't understand this comment. I'd like to see the team give themselves the best shot at winning. Kremer, Wells and Hall fighting for 4th and 5th spots isn't that, IMO.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

We heard that Sig prefers to hoard prospects. Even marginal ones. We dont know how much Elias believes in that. I dont believe there should be a tax for having a great system. I dont believe you sell .70c on the dollar on someone like say Norby that has a tougher path in BMore than other places. Or just to do him a solid. Thats a dude plan and those rarely have merit. That said, we have to hope Elias isnt too hung up on hoarding all his prospects

[RichardZ]

I don't understand this comment. I'd like to see the team give themselves the best shot at winning. Kremer, Wells and Hall fighting for 4th and 5th spots isn't that, IMO.

Is 2023 Cease so much better than 2023 first half Wells? I agree that I’d rather trade a reasonable package for Cease and just stick Wells in the pen. However, I’m not drawing a line in the sand like you seem to be doing. On one side is doing everything you can to win. On the other side is failure with no excuses. Doing everything to win in 2024 can be carried to extremes too just like the comment about cutting Rutschman and Henderson. We can deal Basallo, Cowser, Ortiz and Povich for Cease and Mayo, Bradfield, Norby, McDermott, Kjerstad for Luzardo and then let Kremer and Means fight it out for the 5th spot. That’s all-in. Like it?

[Mackus]

Is 2023 Cease so much better than 2023 first half Wells? I agree that I’d rather trade a reasonable package for Cease and just stick Wells in the pen. However, I’m not drawing a line in the sand like you seem to be doing. On one side is doing everything you can to win. On the other side is failure with no excuses. Doing everything to win in 2024 can be carried to extremes too just like the comment about cutting Rutschman and Henderson. We can deal Basallo, Cowser, Ortiz and Povich for Cease and Mayo, Bradfield, Norby, McDermott, Kjerstad for Luzardo and then let Kremer and Means fight it out for the 5th spot. That’s all-in. Like it?

 

There are many several viable trade targets or FA targets still available (a few others have come off the board).  One of them needs to be ours.  If it takes paying a bit more than you would like to make it happen, that's fine.  Paying a bit more isn't the same as a blank check.  I don't accept the argument that it would require giving up a package of talent that exceeds reason to land one of the SP types.  I don't see the need to answer the question of paying through the nose to get a SP, as it doesn't require that.  

 

Cease, also, isn't my preferred target.  I do think he's the most likely of the guys that are good enough to merit a job well done.  But yes, Cease in the rotation and Wells in the pen is much better outlook heading into the season than just putting Wells in the rotation.  Gives you both upside potential and insurance in case of injury of underperformance from Bradish, Rodriguez, Means, or Kremer.  I'm willing to pay what it will take to get that improved outlook.

[Mackus]

Also have no issue if Wells beats out Kremer in ST and is in the rotation. I think Wells in the pen can be to be a weapon so I like that idea, but Kremer is a bit shaky in his own right so if Wells beats him out, I'm good wit that. Just don't want to hand both of them spots. Give me one more guy in the mix at the top and things look a lot better overall.

[mweb08]

There were and still are too many good starting pitcher options available for a team with an embarrassment of riches in prospects (and an actual need to trade position players because there's too many of them) plus an embarrassingly low payroll to come up empty this offseason. The same was true for last offseason too.

[mweb08]

If the price for Cease, Luzardo, etc. is excessive then it’s a bad job to pay it. We aren’t desperate and shouldn’t act like it. Wells was better than Cease pre-all star break last year. Wells buys time for McDermott/Povich/Johnson.

I agree that first choice is getting a solid starter but not at any price.

I don't think those prospects you mention are good enough to plan on building a bridge to them in 2024.