135 replies to this topic

[dude]

I've got pretty high injury concern on Bieber. From my perspective, he's not on the same tier as the other guys because of those.

I'd have mixed opinions if the O's trades for him. Would be torn between excitement that they deemed the medicals okay thinking he could perform at a high level and cynicism that the medicals aren't encouraging but they chose him because of low costs.

 

This is largely where I'm at.  I don't want Bieber if he's a broken toy, but  I think I saw where his K-rate started going back back up to 'normal' levels (I haven't gone back and researched recently) before he went IL.  I don't know

 

A year ago, I'd have had him and Burnes on the same tier, but after last year, there's a pretty big separation. He's still only 28/29 so if you think he's ok and can perform in 2024, he's certainly a buy lower opportunity. 

 

Trade pieces is a little harder for me to envision with CLE.  They desperately need another bat and RF might be the best fit.  They have commitments everyone else...so do you make is a simple swap of Santander for Bieber? The cost and fit matches.

 

At some point you have to use a move like Bieber to get MIL to move on Burnes.  I'll offer them more than anyone else (see: Glasnow trade) so if the Orioles go Bieber, they are off on Burnes.

 

So I'll create a line for those 3.

Burnes: Mountcastle, Ortiz, Norby

Bieber: Santander, Haskin

Cease: Kjerstad, Norby, Povich, McDermitt

[Mackus]

All three seem like overpays to me. I'd do the Burnes and Cease trades rather than do nothing, even though I think both are much higher than full freight pricing. Can't agree to Bieber trade being in the dark about his health.

[mweb08]

Now that we've chosen a middle of the road (at best) solution as t closer, the only way to get an A for the off-season is to land a SP that we think is at least as good as Means. Burnes, Cease, Montgomery, and Imanaga would all qualify for me. Also some of the other possible trade targets that aren't as commonly discussed. Can't have an A off-season without adding this type of SP.

When they sit it out, telling us that Wells and Hall will compete for the 5th starter role, that will bring it down to an F for me. Kimbrel is fine, but can't do nothing at SP and can't even really just do something minor. A Gibson replacement like Manaea or Giolito would net them a D. Someone with a bit more upside like Stroman and I'd go to a C.

I have zero confidence in management following through on an acceptable off-season plan. Desperately hoping that proves misguided.

 

I largely agree here.

 

Acquiring a top of the rotation starter is paramount to the success of this offseason. I'm not sure I'd phrase that "at least as good as Means," but I guess that depends on what we think of Means. Someone with a reasonable expectation of the run prevention that Means has produced would be ideal (I'm not sure if Means is a great bet to do that this coming year though). 

 

Beyond that, I think they should acquire another high leverage reliever. Kimbrel is fine, but not great, and I don't have total confidence in the other likely high leverage options for 2024 (we saw how limited the pen was toward the end of last season and Cano is a regression candidate imo). 

 

The other key component to me is properly figuring out the infield situation, which I have written about at length before.

To sum up though:

- They should absolutely plan on preserving an extra year for Holliday (I think it's insane to burn that year given all the factors at play)

- They should capitalize on the trade value of one of the top young infielders (Elias should determine who will be the odd man out ahead of time here and target who he wants back in a trade)

- I am fine with using Urias and/or Mateo as a bridge to Holliday (maybe Mayo too?) but would also be fine with other options from outside the organization as others have suggested and/or letting Norby have some opportunity (no issue with trading him too)

 

The OF situation is coming to a head too as dude has mentioned. I am more malleable there to various ideas. They could keep the vets while retaining potential opportunity for Cowser and Kjerstad (Stowers and Vavra provide further depth as well if still in the organization). I am also very open to Elias deciding to trade one or maybe even two of the primary players here, but at least someone out of the primary guys and the next tier down (Stowers, Beavers, Vavra) needs to be dealt imo, probably multiple guys really.

 

So related to that last sentence and what I said about the infield, there are various acceptable paths in play, but what I very much do not what to see is a glut of valuable major league ready or close to it position players without realistic major league opportunity. Trade from this strength to upgrade the major league team and/or the farm (pitching/players with further out ETAs). 

[dude]

All three seem like overpays to me. I'd do the Burnes and Cease trades rather than do nothing, even though I think both are much higher than full freight pricing. 

 

I don't think the CWS have any incentive to be reasonable.  They want to sell off of a 2022 perspective of his value (not his 4.58 2023 ERA) and the 2 years of control allow them to hold that line.  Fair or not, they likely have the Sale/Eaton trades in the back of their minds (different group) in terms of delivering on the trade. One of the mlb.com guys had CIN with the best MiL system after this season and the CWS wanted (reportedly) 4 of their top 11 guys.

[Mackus]

I don't think the CWS have any incentive to be reasonable. They want to sell off of a 2022 perspective of his value (not his 4.58 2023 ERA) and the 2 years of control allow them to hold that line. Fair or not, they likely have the Sale/Eaton trades in the back of their minds (different group) in terms of delivering on the trade. One of the mlb.com guys had CIN with the best MiL system after this season and the CWS wanted (reportedly) 4 of their top 11 guys.

White Sox have more incentive than the Brewers do. Cease isn't helping them do anything, so if they hold onto him because they don't like the deals, they end up with less selling him later.

I'm not in love with any one solution, so I'd only pay a massive tax if all but one end up elsewhere (or off market). We're not there yet. I'd prefer signing Imanaga to any of the trades you laid out, for example. But at some point we'll have dragged feet so much that only one suitable option is left. At that point, I'd pay pretty much whatever it takes to close the deal. That'd be a really bad execution by the O's, but they always execute badly when it comes to additions so wouldn't be surprising.

[dude]

Acquiring a top of the rotation starter is paramount to the success of this offseason. 

 

Beyond that, I think they should acquire another high leverage reliever. Kimbrel is fine, but not great, and I don't have total confidence in the other likely high leverage options for 2024 (we saw how limited the pen was toward the end of last season and Cano is a regression candidate imo). 

 

Agree with everything you wrote.  One comment on the bullpen thing....

 

Adding a starter pushes Tyler Wells into the bullpen so I tihnk we get a significant add there, with the addition of a starter.  Burnes not only gives you cred at the top of the rotation, but you put Wells into that multi-inning high leverage role.

 

Reports on Tate seem really positive.  I know everyone is in the 'best shape of their life" in January, but he was nothing last year and if he's really pumping 99, wow, that could be a big add.

 

Last offseason we didn't know Coulombe or Cano.  Hall wasn't part of the bullpen. Wells was a starter.  We didn't know where our innings would be from the starters and I feel like every one of those things is better now.

 

Bottom line, I like the Orioles bullpen heading into 2024 and adding a starter does give us an "add" in Wells to that mix.  

 

Right now, the numbers don't even work (especially if Jake and Roch are right that Irvin doesn't have an option). 

[mweb08]

Agree with everything you wrote.  One comment on the bullpen thing....

 

Adding a starter pushes Tyler Wells into the bullpen so I tihnk we get a significant add there, with the addition of a starter.  Burnes not only gives you cred at the top of the rotation, but you put Wells into that multi-inning high leverage role.

 

Reports on Tate seem really positive.  I know everyone is in the 'best shape of their life" in January, but he was nothing last year and if he's really pumping 99, wow, that could be a big add.

 

Last offseason we didn't know Coulombe or Cano.  Hall wasn't part of the bullpen. Wells was a starter.  We didn't know where our innings would be from the starters and I feel like every one of those things is better now.

 

Bottom line, I like the Orioles bullpen heading into 2024 and adding a starter does give us an "add" in Wells to that mix.  

 

Right now, the numbers don't even work (especially is Jake and Roch are right that Irvin doesn't have an option). 

 

These are some good points and that's encouraging news on Tate, but I'd still love it if they acquired someone I'd feel more confident in than Wells and Tate for instance. Now who that would be I don't know as I haven't done the research (so fair to criticize me on that). As for the numbers game, well like with the glut in the infield and outfield, that's something I'd put some faith in Elias to make some moves to open the roster spot. 

 

This is not nearly as paramount as the other things I mentioned though and could certainly be addressed at the deadline if it's a need (fair to question if they would properly address it then though).

[dude]

White Sox have more incentive than the Brewers do. Cease isn't helping them do anything, so if they hold onto him because they don't like the deals, they end up with less selling him later.

 

I doubt the WhiteSox agree.  They are in a different box than the Brewers.  Brewers are smallest market in MLB (actual smallest), they know Burnes is leaving and they have a bunch of holes they need to fill to compete in 2024.

 

WhiteSox weren't as bad (results versus Talent) as they appear and they have the resources to do whatever they want.  If they use 2024 as a bridge year (which it kind of appears they are doing) they could just decide to keep Cease for 2025+.  They don't need to trade him to compete in the future.

 

Brewers have real holes to fill and filling with a mis-mash of FAs hasn't been working for them lately.  They literally have to rebuild their infield.  I want to help them do it.

[Mackus]

I doubt the WhiteSox agree.

Good luck to them, then. I'm not giving up a top-50, a top-100 and two top-250 prospects for Cease unless he's literally the only option left for SP.

[dude]

Good luck to them, then. I'm not giving up a top-50, a top-100 and two top-250 prospects for Cease unless he's literally the only option left for SP.

 

What's a little funny in terms of timing (and I'm repeating this from the MLB and RedSox threads) is the Reds and Braves just went in different directions to answer their SP need....so you have 2 teams that were linked to Cease breaking off.  Is that because he's traded to the [Orioles?] or they just decided it's time to deal or move on and 'best and final offer' was too much for them respectively. 

 

If he gets traded we'll know what he's traded for and if he's not traded, that probably tells us something their asking price.

 

fwiw, I don't dislike Cease.  He's ok and if the Orioles traded for him I hope he's better than I expect, but I don't value the 2 years of control as much as some other seem to.  I'd rather fight with a better pitcher in 2024 and create some options for 2025+.

 

...but I don't think there's a good match between what I'd pay and what I perceive them to be looking for so I don't have that as an expectation in terms of my grading.  I don't go all in to get him.

[Slidemaster]

sure, so what is that?

Trading or signing at least one premiere starter.
Trading for or signing another shut down reliever.
8-10 year extensions for Adley, Gunnar, and Grayson.

Like I said. They can't do it. Or at least they won't.

[dude]

Trading or signing at least one premiere starter.
Trading for or signing another shut down reliever.
8-10 year extensions for Adley, Gunnar, and Grayson.

Like I said. They can't do it. Or at least they won't.

 

Fair enough.  If you are going to hold things against the offseason that aren't happening, ok, but that is an intentional setup for disappointment, because you allow no path to success.

 

I think we all agree on the starter thing.  If they can't get Burnes, that is a real issue.  Mackus said he's not committed to one answer....in some ways I am.  Available. Best option.  Best fit. Needs match. It's too clean....same thing with Kimbrel (they got that done so, good).  Do something good, better, similar, all good....but that is one real option.  Get it done.

 

Discussed the RP thing.  I'll still contend I don't think anyone really knows who that is.  RPs are so volatile.  Spending money on some of these guys given the variance isn't a thing for me.  If you need one. If you don't have good options. Take 1-2-3 shots, whatever you need to get back to a good baseline.  Bob has mentioned Stephenson...his sample is so small....maybe he's different now....but if you have to commit 4/40 to get it? Pass.  I don't care about the money, it's the commitment to a roster spot.

 

Adley extension: Agreed, get it done.  Someone else mentioned it.  Maybe there's not, but I have to believe there's a reasonable path.  I have a small theory on this, but whatever., should absolutely be part of an "A" offseason.  Would like to see some other commitments too.

 

Henderson, GRod (Holliday too): They made a choice to pursue FA as soon as they can.  I don't see a reasonable (contract) path.  I think you need something like Henderson coming to the Orioles and agreeing to do something if he gets to play SS. Something like 9/155 with an out at 7.  I'd like to see it, but I think it'd be something irrational.  Think Boras doesn't have his sights set on 705M?  I started to try and work this up for fun, but look at the present value of something like 20/470 and defer out a huge chunk of it (use years in deferral) to make it look like 705M.  Anyone excited about that?  If the Orioles got something done...excellent....I just don't see any overlap with reasonable expectation there.

 

What do you give Kimbrel (FA), Burnes (trade) and an Adley extension? 

[Mike in STL]

The Dodgers are having the “A” offseason. The Orioles really can’t match it.

[dude]

The Dodgers are having the “A” offseason. The Orioles really can’t match it.

 

So you're grading on a curve of the absolute value (no context to start point of end point) of 'things done'?  Is it just money committed?

[Mike in STL]

So you're grading on a curve of the absolute value (no context to start point of end point) of 'things done'? Is it just money committed?

I’d give an “A” grade if they sign Bellinger and Snell, to go along with the already signed Kimbrel. Who is a “B” signing. Hader is the “A” guy.

It’s not just money committed, but great players cost lots of money. So it kind of goes hand in hand.

Bellinger is an absolute perfect fit in this park, on this team. Lefty power bat doesn’t have to fight “The Wall”. Instant outfield upgrade making the guys you want to trade more expendable. Fit at 1B making Mounty expendable.

Snell as a LHP also a fit for this team. Let the opposition go right handed heavy with the bats. That’s why they built damn wall that way, right? Not to mention guy has two CYs so you know, he’s a pretty good pitcher anywhere.

This or the equivalent through trades, gets to O’s an “A” grade.

[Slidemaster]

Fair enough. If you are going to hold things against the offseason that aren't happening, ok, but that is an intentional setup for disappointment, because you allow no path to success.

I think we all agree on the starter thing. If they can't get Burnes, that is a real issue. Mackus said he's not committed to one answer....in some ways I am. Available. Best option. Best fit. Needs match. It's too clean....same thing with Kimbrel (they got that done so, good). Do something good, better, similar, all good....but that is one real option. Get it done.

Discussed the RP thing. I'll still contend I don't think anyone really knows who that is. RPs are so volatile. Spending money on some of these guys given the variance isn't a thing for me. If you need one. If you don't have good options. Take 1-2-3 shots, whatever you need to get back to a good baseline. Bob has mentioned Stephenson...his sample is so small....maybe he's different now....but if you have to commit 4/40 to get it? Pass. I don't care about the money, it's the commitment to a roster spot.

Adley extension: Agreed, get it done. Someone else mentioned it. Maybe there's not, but I have to believe there's a reasonable path. I have a small theory on this, but whatever., should absolutely be part of an "A" offseason. Would like to see some other commitments too.

Henderson, GRod (Holliday too): They made a choice to pursue FA as soon as they can. I don't see a reasonable (contract) path. I think you need something like Henderson coming to the Orioles and agreeing to do something if he gets to play SS. Something like 9/155 with an out at 7. I'd like to see it, but I think it'd be something irrational. Think Boras doesn't have his sights set on 705M? I started to try and work this up for fun, but look at the present value of something like 20/470 and defer out a huge chunk of it (use years in deferral) to make it look like 705M. Anyone excited about that? If the Orioles got something done...excellent....I just don't see any overlap with reasonable expectation there.

What do you give Kimbrel (FA), Burnes (trade) and an Adley extension?

It's not my A, but I'll take it. B+

Right now the offseason is a solid D/D-.

[dude]

 That’s why they built damn wall that way, right?

 

uhhh...oh, never mind.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Ok, the holiday season is over. Time for the FO to do get on the stick. Its been a LONG time since the O's had a very good team AND the money and depth to be able to really upgrade the roster. Stop making excuses. Get some quality stuff done.

[dude]

Ok, the holiday season is over. Time for the FO to do get on the stick. Its been a LONG time since the O's had a very good team AND the money and depth to be able to really upgrade the roster. Stop making excuses. Get some quality stuff done.

 

I was going to ask this question elsewhere, but when is the Orioles Caravan?  If the Orioles have to move some pieces around, they may prefer to do it when they don't have to answer as many direct questions about it over and over and over.

 

There's actually a lot of Teams in the same boat right now..  Teams have real holes and there's a lot of FAs still out there.  Boras will grind his bigger guys out as long as he needs to (Giants probably finally get to spend their money), but 90% of the Teams need to finish rosters and get ready for ST.

[bmore_ken]

The Dodgers are having the “A” offseason. The Orioles really can’t match it.

The O's will never have an A offseason. Ok I'm 58 , so maybe when I'm dead.