135 replies to this topic

[dude]

I've said this in other places, but I think there's only 2 real things that need to happen this offseason in terms of adds (I guess there are some minor things too)

 

1) Fix closer for 2024: Signed Kimbrel (done)

2) Find Top of rotation arm: Still think the best option is Burnes and a little surprised it's not already done.

 

For me, that's a B+.

 

To get to an "A" offseason, they need to manage the rest of the roster and make some decisions.

 

Figure out the Leadership of the Team in the coming years.  I know some people think this is overblown, but this is probably the most important thing.  We didn't "out-Talent" everyone else to 101 wins and there are more Talented Teams that didn't make the playoffs.  Regardless of the choices (next element), there's plenty of Talent for this Team to compete well.  They have to choose the core that's going to lead that Talent.

 

Make the choices you need to make and re-layer the system to continue success.  We seem to be avoiding this at this point, but everyone doesn't fit. Everyone wants opportunity, everyone isn't getting it in Baltimore.

We have a choice (or more than one) in the OF with Hays and/or Santander vs. Kjerstad and/or Cowser.

We have a choice for 1B with Mountcastle vs. Mayo.

We have guys like Urias, Ortiz and Norby that deserve more opportunity than they'll get in Baltimore.

We have choices in the Bullpen.

 

Pretending you don't have to do anything is (imo) the biggest risk for success of the 2024 season.

 

I certainly have my opinions, but getting those things done (extensions and trades) is important and just making some choices and executing gets me to an "A" offseason.

[BobPhelan]

Trade for a mid to top of the rotation arm without giving up Holliday, Basallo, or Mayo.

Trade Hays, Urias, Mateo for some sort of upgrade in the bullpen.

[Mike in STL]

Trade for a mid to top of the rotation arm without giving up Holliday, Basallo, or Mayo.

Trade Hays, Urias, Mateo for some sort of upgrade in the bullpen.

Can't trade Mateo. He's supposed to platoon with our 5+ WAR caliber SS/3B.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Closer, TOR starter, Solid RH bat.

 

That's not really even an A, its simply what the team needs. But given our woeful FO I'd give them an A for doing that.

[dude]

That's not really even an A, ....

 

At the end of ST if we have a thread for Offseason Grade....what's the standard you use to assess a grade??

 

That's kind of my point in this thread.  Lot's of people like to be tribal (and accuse others of being that way), but if you identify the expectations you have, then the assessment is off the results to that comparison.

 

Kimbrel (done)

and Burnes is a B+ for me.

and Gibert is a B for me (doubt I'd pay what it would take)

and Bieber or Cease is a B- for me (I could bump Bieber up on health, not a fan of Cease).

 

...to get this offseason done ("A") they need to manage the roster (trade/extensions) with some purpose. 

[dude]

Closer, TOR starter, Solid RH bat.

 

Trying to be specific here.

 

Closer (Kimbrel) is complete, right?

 

What is the bar you have for "TOR"?

 

I don't really understand the Solid RHed bat thing (Wile E has said this too)....but what's the bar for that (and where are they playing? the Lineup is full, we already have to make moves to make room for guys that everyone says they want to play)

[mdrunning]

New ownership.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Closer - Kimbrel fits the bill so complete

 

TOR Starter - guys like Burnes, Montgomery, Kershaw

 

RH Bat - Yes I recognize we have some logjams in our lineup and depth and have repeatedly made the point that stockpiling which seems to be Elias' mode is fine but only to a point and we are passed time to move some pieces. I don't know the answer here. My eye test just says we are a left handed centric offense (yes I know the stats show us just as good against righties as lefties). Just how I see it.

 

Now that said its isn't my job to figure out who the right pieces are (nor anybody else on an internet forum). The O's have guys who get paid a lot of money to figure this out. Its their job and its the fans job to critique them after the fact....lol

[ivanbalt]

I'll grade on a curve.  Make an effort to contend for a championship before the young players leave.

[Mike B]

A good starter, a high % on base guy, who hits right handed, and another BP arm.

 

I will be happy if I get 2 of 3, but think we only get 1 of 3.

[mikezpen]

Closer-done

TOR starter

Extend Rutschman

[Slidemaster]

I don't think they can achieve what would be an "A" for me.

[dude]

I don't think they can achieve what would be an "A" for me.

 

sure, so what is that?

[BSLSteveBirrer]

sure, so what is that?

 

We get that you like the basis for such judgments. But the problem is the grade depends on several factors. Its not only about what we bring in but also what we moved in pieces to obtain a new player.

 

Lets take your Burnes as am example. Would a trade for him give you a B+ as you stated? Wouldn't it depend on what we traded? How would you grade a trade if it was Holliday and Mayo for Burnes? No I don't think the O's would do that but you get the point.

[dude]

We get that you like the basis for such judgments. But the problem is the grade depends on several factors. Its not only about what we bring in but also what we moved in pieces to obtain a new player.

 

Lets take your Burnes as am example. Would a trade for him give you a B+ as you stated? Wouldn't it depend on what we traded? How would you grade a trade if it was Holliday and Mayo for Burnes? No I don't think the O's would do that but you get the point.

 

I don't always write the full explanations because the education system seems to have failed a number of the posters here.

 

I'm not looking for 1% answers. We're sitting in the 75+ range for opportunity.  We can discuss any player and there's always some surprises, but you don't have to avoid simple things because other things may (or nay not) exist).

 

You get to define the line.

 

Burnes: Put this elsewhere, but for this discussion...I want to stay off Mayo.  If they want Mayo, I want Devin Williams, but we've got Kimbrel, so I'm off that.  Orioles match up great with them.  

 

Mountcastle, Norby and Ortiz (LAD/Lux) for Burnes, CompB and 1.75M in IFA Pool. They want another piece off the top 30.  Fine.

 

That's it.  That's more than the Rays got for Glasnow and we don't need an extension with Burnes.

 

I can write out a lot of details to the things I'd like to see, but I'm not asking you to grade mine, I'm establishing what I think an "A" looks like for me.  

 

Bob has lower/different expectations, and that's fine.  We kind of knew that, but that's ok.  He gets to draw his line for himself.

 

 Everyone is super comfortable grading tribally, but I think if we're going to participate in a Baseball message board, we should have a little more thought in the process.

 

You seem to want to engage a little, so I'll play the other side of whatever you want to do and get to "the costs" of whatever you want to do.

[Mackus]

Now that we've chosen a middle of the road (at best) solution as t closer, the only way to get an A for the off-season is to land a SP that we think is at least as good as Means. Burnes, Cease, Montgomery, and Imanaga would all qualify for me. Also some of the other possible trade targets that aren't as commonly discussed. Can't have an A off-season without adding this type of SP.

When they sit it out, telling us that Wells and Hall will compete for the 5th starter role, that will bring it down to an F for me. Kimbrel is fine, but can't do nothing at SP and can't even really just do something minor. A Gibson replacement like Manaea or Giolito would net them a D. Someone with a bit more upside like Stroman and I'd go to a C.

I have zero confidence in management following through on an acceptable off-season plan. Desperately hoping that proves misguided.

[dude]

Now that we've chosen a middle of the road (at best) solution as t closer, the only way to get an A for the off-season is to land a SP that we think is at least as good as Means. Burnes, Cease, Montgomery, and Imanaga would all qualify for me.

 

Where does Bieber fall for you in this group. I think he's the other common trade target.

 

Also some of the other possible trade targets that aren't as commonly discussed. Can't have an A off-season without adding this type of SP.

 

Not that anyone gives a crap about my inner monologue, but there are so many interesting situations to build opportunity (available every year)...I think about them through an Oriole lens, but honestly, 90+% of them don't really make sense for where the Orioles are today and that's a generally good thing.

 

Bob has talked about the SEA pitchers (Gilbert or Kirby).  They aren't my favorite targets, but if you wanted to do something there more creative, there's plenty of opportunity.  Mariners have big needs at 2B and RF.  Norby and Santander would be great fits there.  There's other places they could go like the Twins for Polanco and Kepler. The Mariners were offloading salary with the Braves and willing to dump Kelenic to do it.

 

Robbie Ray is a much bigger chip.  They seem to really like him and he'll be back this year sometime from injury, but many reports have Snell wanting to go to 'home' to the Mariners and it may be difficult for them to get both pitchers into their 2024-2026 budget.

 

Injured pitchers carry different risks, but every pitcher carries injury risk...I mean...nobody was planning for Bautista to be on the shelf for 2024 last August.  Means is returning.  I've discussed Woodruff, McClanahan, Buehler in different thoughts.  Robbie Ray is another one.

 

If the Orioles (or whoever) was willing to take Ray off their hands AND you could help solve issues at RF/2B/3B.....that's a pretty good opportunity.  SEA is stacked with very young MI types and if I wanted to target one, I'd look at #7 Felnin Celesten.

 

From an accounting perspective, I've wanted to extend Means and add Burnes for 2024 and someone like Buehler or Woodruff for 2025-2027.  Salary for Gilbert/Kirby plus Ray (23/25/25) is about the same range as the other deals, distributed differently.  Ray also has a 2024 opt out, so there's some ways to consider that.

 

So....

Ray (3/73M)

Gilbert/Kirby (SEA protects their choice)

Celesten

for 

Santander

Norby 

2 other pieces

 

....even if you don't do the pitching side, Santander/Norby should be an interesting pieces for them depending on what you are doing in other deals.

[Mackus]

Where does Beiber fall for you in this group. I think he's the other common trade target.

I've got pretty high injury concern on Bieber. From my perspective, he's not on the same tier as the other guys because of those.

I'd have mixed opinions if the O's traded for him. Would be torn between excitement that they deemed the medicals okay thinking he could perform at a high level and cynicism that the medicals aren't encouraging but they chose him because of low costs.
I'd be a lot more excited and accepting of Bieber as the SP solution if they'd put more resources into the closer solution than just Kimbrel. Like a trade for Clase and Bieber would've been intriguing.

[You Play to Win the Game]

I don't always write the full explanations because the education system seems to have failed a number of the posters here.

 

Lol, you're a trip. What you say is true though, especially when it comes to common sense and relatability. Exhibit A.

[dude]

Lol, you're a trip. What you say is true though, especially when it comes to common sense and relatability. Exhibit A.

 

At least you guys are consistent.  For fairness, I'll spot you the delta you have on a couple issues.

---------

 

Hey, this is a thread about accountability on perspectives.  Right?  Don't wait until the results are in to build your assessment of the administration.  Be in front of it and consistent, not just tribal because it's the only mode you've got. .