65 replies to this topic

[dude]

This thread IS NOT INTENDED to be a discussion of the quality of the roster or opportunity or 'how we got here' or "what I'd do" or any of that.  This is just intended as a 2024 Baseline Roster reference for where the 2024 roster sits and we can update it throughout the offseason as things change or are finalized (like Arbitration #s, trade, non-tenders, FA signings, whatever)

 

If there's some wild disagreement about a player or potential salary, I can change anything.

 

Presented as a notional lineup, obviously that would be subject to change, largely what they are ending the season using.

 

For purposes of this, I'm putting all Team Control (TC): TC1, TC2 and TC3 at 700k.

 

Service: 0.0+ = TC1, 1.0+ = TC2, 2.0+ = TC3, 3.0+ ARB1, 4.0+ ARB2, 5.0+ = ARB3 (I use ARB0 for Super 2)

Contract: Xyears/yzM 

-----------------------

 

Lineup

CF Mullins (6.325M, ARB2)

C  Rutschman (0.70M, TC3)

3B Henderson (0.70M, TC2)

1B Mountcastle (4.1375M, ARB1)

RF Santander (11.70M, ARB3)

LF Hays (6.30M, ARB2) 

DH O'Hearn (3.50M, ARB3)

2B Westburg (0.70M, TC1)

SS Mateo (2.70M, ARB2)

 

Bench

C  McCann  (4.00M, 2/24M, final year 4.0M with Mets paying difference)

IF Urias (2.10M, ARB1)

OF Hilliard (0.80M, ARB1)

OF McKenna (0.80M, ARB0)

 

Starters

1. Burnes (1/15.6375, ARB3)

2. Means (3.325M, ARB3)

3. Bradish (0.70M, TC2)

4. GRodriguez (0.70M, TC1)

5. Kremer (0.70M, TC3)

 

Bullpen

RH  Kimbrel (1/12M + '25 option)

RH  Cano (0.70, TC2)

RH  Baumann (0.70M, TC2 - 0 option)

RH  Tate (1.50M, ARB2) 

RH  TWells (1.9625M, ARB0)

LH  Akin (0.825M, ARB1)

LH  Coulombe (2.30M, ARB3 - 0 option)

LH  Perez (1.20M, ARB1 - 0 option)

-------------26

IL/Bautista (1.00M, signed-TC3) will spend season on 60-day IL

 

TOTAL SALARY FOR 26-MAN = ~91.0M

 

Does not include

Previously deferred money = 10.3M (see post below) - Probably need to add Givens here....

Rest of 40-man roster = 8+M (common to all teams) - this is actually much less than this amount - partial salary based on service in minors.

Estimated player benefits = 15M (common to all teams)

 

AGAIN this is the start point for where they are today.  I think we all expect a fair number of changes to the 40man and 26man depending on ARB, trades, etc.  

 

We'll just update as the decisions are made.

 

12/6: Just including this here, but we are moving guys offered arbitration with no options (like Webb) off the 26-man.

 

RH  Webb (1.0M, ARB1 - 0 option) 

RH  Baker

LH  Irvin (2.0M, ARB1)

LH  Zimmermann (0 option)

[dude]

Orioles deferred payments:

 

Here's what I'll try (again) and if anyone has additional info, we'll update it here and I'll just reflect the total number up in the lead post. From what I've gathered (I'm not worried about date of payout, just raw accumulation in year paid)

Note: It appears all previous deferred money has been paid out, outside of Cobb and Davis.

 

2024: 10.3M from Davis (5.0M/breakout from 2022 + 3.5M), Cobb (1.8M)

2025-2032: 5.3M from Davis (3.5M) and Cobb (1.8M)
2033-2035: 3.15M from Davis (1.4M) and Cobb (1.75M)

2036-2037: 1.4M from Davis (1.4M)

[dude]

Arbitration Cases:

 

Santander 5.162  (12.40M, ARB3) - signed 11.70M

Coulombe 5.008 (2.20M, ARB3) - signed 2.30M plus option

Means 5.007 (4.50M, ARB3) - signed 3.325M

O'Hearn 5.004 (2.70M, ARB3) - signed 3.5M plus option

Mullins 4.078  (6.50M, ARB2) - signed 6.325M

Hays 4.057  (5.70M, ARB2) - won arbitration 6.3M

Tate 4.048  (1.5M, ARB2) - signed 1.50M

Mateo 4.000  (2.80M, ARB2) - signed 2.70M

Mountcastle 3.105 (2.80M, ARB1) - signed 4.1375M

Perez 3.085 (1.30M, ARB1) - signed 1.20M plus option

Irvin 3.083 (1.00M, ARB1) - signed 2.00M

Akin 3.079 (1.00M, ARB1) - signed 825k

Webb 3.046 (1.00M, ARB1) - won arbitration 1.0M

Urias 3.025 (1.60M, ARB1) - signed 2.10M

TWells 2.132 (2.20M, ARB0) - signed 1.9625M

McKenna 2.123 (0.90M, ARB0) - signed 800k

Hilliard 3.094 (ARB1) - signed 800k

 

These are my ARB projections.  COTs, MLBTR, everyone else will do theirs. 

They aren't right, but they're likely close enough for now, updated as we go along.

[BSLMikeLowe]

Pretty sure Givens is owed $2M.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Given the playoff roster I'd swap McKenna and Kjerstad.

[BaltBird 24]

Is Hicks staying around for a 4th OF role? He might get a chance to start somewhere after his mini resurgence.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Is Hicks staying around for a 4th OF role? He might get a chance to start somewhere after his mini resurgence.

Unlikely. His resurgence prob earns him a decent 1 yr deal. Ill say this though. Hes not my first choice as a vet bat to bring in to provide some BA/OBP from the right side but hes an option once you get past a few other names. He had great splits from the right side this year. Hes always hit better from that side. Hes still passable in the field.

[Mackus]

His resurgence prob earns him a decent 1 yr deal.

Yankees are still paying him next year, so he can't really get any more money. Any deal he agrees to will just mean the Yankees pay slightly less. So it'll just be minimum salary for whoever signs him.

Playing time could still be a reason for him to look elsewhere, but the money will be the same wherever he goes.

[dude]

Is Hicks staying around for a 4th OF role? He might get a chance to start somewhere after his mini resurgence.

 

This is probably a fair discussion within this thread (it impacts the baseline Roster).

 

I defer to anyone with better or more sourced information....there's certainly new CBA Rules which may not align with some past understanding...that said...

 

...my understanding of the rule is that he's now controlled by the Orioles under his current contract.  He's paid 9.5M in 2024 and 2025 with a buyout for 2026 so the Orioles actually control him at League minimum for the next 2 years. The Yankees are on the hook for all of that outside of the league minimum.

 

It may seem a little strange, but his story is fairly unique.  When guys get released, there's a good reason so they typically are just looking for any team to come back with.  His better play is interesting, but I don't think he can just walk out of the structure of his deal at his own will once he signs with a new team. 

 

As a recent example, Mike Moustakas was released from the Reds last year and they ate the remainder of his contract.  He caught on with the Rockies and actually played better (similar to Hicks) and was later TRADED by the Rox to the Angels for a minor leaguer.  Hicks situation is a little different in that he had 2 years left on his contract, but I think the application is the same.

 

From a Baseline Roster perspective, I think he's an Oriole under control at League minimum for the next 2 years.  As an asset, his improved performance and League minimum control could make him something of a trade chip if another team desired him (ie trade) more than his perceived value on the Orioles in a more limited role. 

[makoman]

MLB.com thinks Hicks is a free agent.

 

https://www.mlb.com/...-agents-by-team

 

I don't think the Yankees deal still applies. He signed a new deal with the O's, his old deal was not assigned here. I think he can sign whatever new deal he likes and it just offsets the money the Yankees already owe him.

[Mackus]

Interesting. I thought when you were released, you were released, with no strings aside from the old team owing you all the money (less any new money earned playing for a competitor). The Orioles signed him to a new contract, so not sure why he or they would be burdened by the original deal.

Only reason to not welcome Hicks back is if you're not comfortable with him defensively as the primary CF backup.

[Mackus]

MLB.com thinks Hicks is a free agent.

https://www.mlb.com/...-agents-by-team

I don't think the Yankees deal still applies. He signed a new deal with the O's, his old deal was not assigned here. I think he can sign whatever new deal he likes and it just offsets the money the Yankees already owe him.

Also how I understood it.

[makoman]

Also how I understood it.

 

To me, once the Yankees released him Hicks is no longer burdened by that contract. He was a FA and could sign whatever deal he could get. Presumably he signed a 1 year deal for the rest of 2023. He has over 6 years service time. He should not be stuck under control of his previous contract that he was released from. The only current relevance of that deal is that the Yankees still owe him money, and there is presumably offset language based on any new deal he signs. But Hicks should have no further burdens under that deal. If he had been claimed, different story, his deal would still be in force but the O's would be paying him.

 

Re: Moustakas, he was released by the Reds in January 2023 and signed a new deal with the Rockies in March. So he was then under control of the Rockies for 2023 based on that new deal. They traded him later in 2023. That had nothing to do with his Reds deal. 

[dude]

I think he can sign whatever new deal he likes and it just offsets the money the Yankees already owe him.

 

I don't think anyone signs him for new money....at least under the old structure, he'd have to have signed for more money than the Yankees were paying him to get 'new money', outside of the League minimum.

 

----------------

 

break/....regardless....I'm removing him from the Baseline.  Thx.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

What is the rationale having McKenna as the 4th OFer over Kjerstad?

[makoman]

What is the rationale having McKenna as the 4th OFer over Kjerstad?

Either is projected to cost approximately the minimum so it doesn’t really matter for this exercise. We’ll know in about a month who’s tendered.

[dude]

Updated lead post with recent move.

 

Claimed Sam Hilliard, waiver Joey Krehbiel.

 

Krehbiel was one of 5 Oriole RPs without an option so at some point that's going to be limiting in what you can do.  From a pure 40-man standpoint, I'll add Tate, but that's certainly a question too.  Rule 5 is certainly always a consideration, but it's a no-option roster add too.

 

I actually like Hilliard and have probably discussed him in the past.  He's like a number of guys out there like O'Hearn and AZs Pavin Smith.  An interesting profile that hasn't really caught on yet.  He's 29 so he could just be part of the Orioles roster churn (like Lewin Diaz last year) but he's on the 40 and out of options so I'll add him to the bench for now.  He's ARB1 eligible (3.094) for 2024.

[dude]

Orioles tender all of their Arbitration cases.

 

Updated lead post with signings of Mateo (2.7M), McKenna (800k), Hilliard (800k) and Akin (825k)

 

Orioles 40-man is at 36 and they have too many contract players for the ML roster. 

 

There are changes coming because the numbers don't actually work (I can count to 26).  They are doing something intentional because they just signed a guy like Tucker Davdison and then waived him off the 40.  That has to be intentional, not ignorance.  They can sign these guys to ML contracts and then use options (Akin, Irvin, Tate) and stash them at AAA.

 

ML contracts that get optioned still are paid in full, right?  

 

You see a team like the Braves just making moves to clean up the roster. 

The Orioles appear to have deferred all decisions to later (because this can't be the actual answer).

[dude]

UPDATED with Kimbrel 1/12+ '25 team option)

 

It's getting a little difficult to track the actual payroll since they have a number of guys offered arbitration that can't make the 26-man roster.  Maybe guys are hurt and we don't know.  Maybe they'll trade some.  Maybe they'll burn options (like a DL Hall) and push guys back to AAA...

 

....but it feels like they still have a fair amount of roster management to make things make some sense.

[Mackus]

It's getting a little difficult to track the actual payroll since they have a number of guys offered arbitration that can't make the 26-man roster.  

 

O'Hearn, Tate, Mountcastle, Akin, and Wells have options left (according to FG).  Don't think that does enough to declutter the active roster though, especially not to start the season when only Tate and Akin have any likelihood of being optioned.