148 replies to this topic

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Games are going to get tougher the rest of the way. Not talking schedule just down the stretch baseball. Yeah anything can happen in the playoffs but the O's will be much better off if they get the bye. That means you gotta win most every game you should. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Wanting the sweep is one thing being realistic about it is another. Its baseball. Its 3 games. You take 2 of 3 vs anyone. If I said Ill give you 2 of 3 of these games right now and you were like nah Ill take my chances I just think thats a really bad decision.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I guess we're the only two expecting a sweep. Good to have you along.

He just said we have a 42% chance of sweeping.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I mean come on guys. There are 4 options here. 0%, 33%, 67%, 100%. Its one thing to not accept 67% against a team like Oak if there was an option between 67 and 100. There isnt. Yeah, if this was another 4 game set like earier in the year you'd def be disappointed with a split vs 3 of 4 but how damn greedy do you get. Would you not take 3 of 4 if it was a 4 game set? Would only all 4 be acceptable.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Wanting the sweep is one thing being realistic about it is another. Its baseball. Its 3 games. You take 2 of 3 vs anyone. If I said Ill give you 2 of 3 of these games right now and you were like nah Ill take my chances I just think thats a really bad decision.

Agree about the first part. Since it’s Oakland, I’d probably gamble lol. But as you know, BDR is a gambling man.

[Mackus]

Wanting the sweep is one thing being realistic about it is another. Its baseball. Its 3 games. You take 2 of 3 vs anyone. If I said Ill give you 2 of 3 of these games right now and you were like nah Ill take my chances I just think thats a really bad decision.

 

I'll take my chances.

 

Sticking with 75% chance to win each game (A's have lost 72% of their games this year, so I think this is reasonable as the O's are a better than average opponent)...

 

42% of 3 wins, 42% chance of 2 wins, 14% chance of 1 win, 2% chance of 0 wins

[Mackus]

I think some might not realize how bad Oakland is.  They are on pace for fewer wins than the 2018 O's.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think some might not realize how bad Oakland is. They are on pace for fewer wins than the 2018 O's.

Give me a larger sample size than 3 games and Im with you guys on passing on the given 67%

[Mackus]

Lets use Mackus' 75% chance to win each game approach. That means the A's have a 25% chance to win each game.

 

O's sweep 42%

O's win 2  56%

A's win 2  6%

A's sweep 1.5%

 

Not exact but you get the picture.

 

Need to doublecheck if its you or me that did the math wrong.  But since your totals are way over 100 I think it might be you

[BSLSteveBirrer]

I'll take my chances.

 

Sticking with 75% chance to win each game (A's have lost 72% of their games this year, so I think this is reasonable as the O's are a better than average opponent)...

 

42% of 3 wins, 42% chance of 2 wins, 14% chance of 1 win, 2% chance of 0 wins

I was doing the math but you beat me to it.

 

I am totally with you. Would not take the sure 2 upfront given the distribution here. Its actually bad math to do so.17% of the time you achieve or exceed the 2 upfront while you only fail to achieve that 16% of the time. Close but I'll take my shot.

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Well if you use the ESPN predictor numbers we should clearly take the 2 upfront.

 

Friday - O's 60%

 

Saturday - O's 69%

 

Sunday - O's 54.7%

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Oak wins at a .305 clip at home vs .258 on the road. Ill take my 67% after a long trip and head home. Can we actually get Manfred on the horn and see if he will go this. Nice little 2nd AS break. Refreshed for Tuesday.

[jamesdean]

The thing about the A's is they give up a shitload of runs and are pitiful offensively. Sure, anything can happen in a 3 game series but I still think it will be disappointing if they lose to them even once. If the Oriole offense was ever going to make someone pay, this is the series.

[85Knight]

The best record in the AL vs. the worst. I'll take my chances on the sweep. We were not favorites in any of the games against the Padres so only winning one was not unexpected. Even though we're not hitting well 3-3 against the Mariners and Padres on the road isn't bad at all. Sweep the A's and we're back on track to getting that 1 seed.

[glenn__davis]

I think some might not realize how bad Oakland is.  They are on pace for fewer wins than the 2018 O's.

 

I very much realize how bad Oakland is.  But the math as you stated give about a 42% chance of a sweep.  So, most likely, no sweep.  And that's assuming your 75% chance of winning each game which I'm pretty sure is extremely high.

 

With of that said enough of this talk, let's go out there and win all the games and come home.

[Mackus]

I very much realize how bad Oakland is. But the math as you stated give about a 42% chance of a sweep. So, most likely, no sweep. And that's assuming your 75% chance of winning each game which I'm pretty sure is extremely high.

With of that said enough of this talk, let's go out there and win all the games and come home.

I never said sweep was more likely than not. I said I wouldn't sign up for 2-of-3 ahead of time and not play the games.

[DuffMan]

I'd say the O's have at least a 75% chance of winning each game. So that would mean about a 42% chance of a sweep, based on pure math.

[Mike B]

Earl Weaver used to caution fans when the Orioles were in a pennant race that every game should be treated separately and that during the race there were going to be a dozen times when you think you have it won, and a dozen when you were sure it is lost.  The Orioles have not been in many races in the last 40 years and I think the fan base is still getting used to being in one.  

The Orioles are good, and are going to win more than their share of games, but they are going to lose games too.  Against good and bad teams.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Its cute what an off day does to fans.

[Mike B]

Its cute what an off day does to fans.

Off days and any days.