77 replies to this topic

[BSLChrisStoner]

MASN: More on the impact of Jack Flaherty trade and yesterday's deadline madness 

https://www.masnspor...eadline-madness

[BSLSteveBirrer]

Well not the SP most were hoping for but he certainly isn't any worse than the rest of our rotation. And he should give us some innings down the stretch. Welcome to the O's Jack.

[You Play to Win the Game]

ESPN doesn’t think Flaherty is “nothing”, and didn’t give it an F-. Also, a mid-3’s ERA through his last 12 starts is quite strong, as our very own Pedro Cerrano was telling us yesterday. I’d add that the Cardinals have taken a strange turn from the heyday of their player development prowess. Look into how they have handled Jordan Walker most notably. Sent him down after a slow start to his career, told him he needed to hit the ball in the air more, but proceeded to provide next to zero guidance or specifics on how to do so. There have been many other examples of this type of PlDev shoddiness.

So as strange as it is to ponder, could Flaherty take another step forward in this organization? We don’t have long to find out, but let’s hope so.



https://www.espn.com...ards-every-deal

This article also gave the Cards a C on their return.

[Mackus]

Flaherty is pretty good at inducing weak contact (75th percentile or so for exit velocity and barrels and hard hit percentage), so a high BABIP going along with that seems pretty unlucky or due to bad defense and could hopefully fall to about 300 like the O's have allowed as a team this year or even the 275 that Flaherty has averaged for his career.

[You Play to Win the Game]

Yeah I can see pockets of hope in his profile, and when considering St. Louis appears to currently be a toxic environment under Marmol. His days are numbered. St. Louis has definitely taken a significant turn for the worse IMO.

 

Still can't expect much IMO. But the hope/potential is there, and frankly all that matters are his numbers from here on. 

[dude]

Someone told us multiple times how bad Flaherty was.  Now that same person thinks it's a good move. Hmmm.

[dude]

I like Flaherty.  This is sort of the first move the Orioles have taken a guy with more of a better track record.  We've seen guys have some short term bumps so we'll see what happens.

 

He's an opportunity to buy low(er) and get him back to where he used to be.  He's only 27 so if you can fix something and sell him on opportunity, maybe in a world where care about signing players, you could get something done - if merited - on a multi-year deal.

 

When you look at his STATCAST DATA he still does well (2023) in Exit Velo, HardHit% and Barrel%....but his Walk-rate sucks and his fastball velo is down.  Click on 2019 and his chart is all red but he still wasn't special (63) in fastball velo, so he doesn't really rely on the gas for success. 

 

Of his 20 starts, only 3 are real clunkers (2+/10, 4+/6, 6+/6) so he's generally been getting the innings and keeping his team in the game (7 QS and 7 on the edge of a QS).

[hallas]

I think this move is good in a vacuum.  Just doesn't feel like enough on a team with more than a few questions in the rotation, especially considering we had trade chips that we *have* to deal.

 

If the Orioles actually fix him though I'll take back everything i'm saying and just say I'm an idiot for doubting the FO.  I can't discount this possibility - the O's have fixed a lot of pitchers in recent years, and most of them have had less talent than Flaherty has.

[dude]

One more quick thought...when Machado trades were being discussed back in 2018, one of the potential targets was Flaherty.

 

It's funny, but you can look back over the last 5+ years and argue for and against it differently each year.  Lot of Talent.  Great seasons. Injuries.  Lesser performance.  Not linear.  Rarely is. Here now.

[NewMarketSean]

Starting tomorrow

[You Play to Win the Game]

Someone told us multiple times how bad Flaherty was.  Now that same person thinks it's a good move. Hmmm.

That's really not at all what I'm saying. I just don't want to continue to make the board a miserable place, if it's something I can control. Nothing wrong with trying to be hopeful.

[JeremyStrain]

Flaherty is pretty good at inducing weak contact (75th percentile or so for exit velocity and barrels and hard hit percentage), so a high BABIP going along with that seems pretty unlucky or due to bad defense and could hopefully fall to about 300 like the O's have allowed as a team this year or even the 275 that Flaherty has averaged for his career.

STL has terrible defense, so that BABIP which is tops in the league I believe, is going to factor in here I think. The biggest variable is going to be his velocity though. If they can coax another MPH or two out of him I think people will be shocked at what he does here.

 

I read somewhere, fangraphs maybe? That when he avg 92.9mph or less he has a high 4 ERA and when he was over that he was something like a high 2 ERA. He was currently avg 92.3 for this season. He's got a cutter that I have a feeling Holt will work some magic with.

 

Overall just a good candidate tools wise for what this staff likes to work with, and playing motivated on a contending team, with that LF wall moved and a good defense behind him, I'm guessing we will get our money worth. Time will tell though.

[BSLChrisStoner]

I like Flaherty's stuff, and the price paid to get him is nothing. 
He can help. 

 

Still think a reliever should have been added; but at-least with Flaherty ... they'll be able to add Wells to the pen when he comes back up.

[You Play to Win the Game]

You keep saying the price to get 2 months of a 4.5 ERA/FIP/xFIP/BB9 is nothing. It isn’t accurate. They paid a price. And if you think it was “nothing”, then what’s the justification for not doing much more, given the nothingness it cost to do much more?

[Mackus]

Disagree with saying the price was nothing.  Two top-20 guys isn't nothing, especially not in a system like ours, even if Rom is going backwards.  And while they're the higher current value guys, I think most agree that Showalter was pretty close to a major jump up into the top-30 and maybe higher depending on how he finishes the season..

 

I agree the price is worth paying, and that we can easily absorb the hit to the farm and still have a terrific farm system.  But saying its nothing is akin to saying we gave up nothing for Travis Snider.

[mweb08]

I'm happy to have him because even though this alone was an absolutely unsatisfactory deadline (can be judged using the collective comments on here before the deadline), Flaherty still helps due to the concern over filling innings the rest of the way, because he may allow Wells or someone else to switch to the pen, and he does seem to have some upside considering what he did further back in his career.

[BSLChrisStoner]

Disagree with saying the price was nothing.  Two top-20 guys isn't nothing, especially not in a system like ours, even if Rom is going backwards.  And while they're the higher current value guys, I think most agree that Showalter was pretty close to a major jump up into the top-30 and maybe higher depending on how he finishes the season..

 

I agree the price is worth paying, and that we can easily absorb the hit to the farm and still have a terrific farm system.  But saying its nothing is akin to saying we gave up nothing for Travis Snider.

 

Price was nothing imo.    Rom and Prieto could potentially help a roster in some capacity; but I can't imagine Rom being really any different than Bruce Zimmermann and Prieto is unlikely to ever be as good as Ramon Urias. 

They can be good organizational depth, they can add to a trade, but you certainly don't lose a second of sleep losing them. 

 

Showalter? I get that people liked him (and I kind of kept an eye on him, because I spent a lot of time in his hometown); but he's got 6 games and 20 innings at Low A.   It's a long road for him even becoming as good as Rom as been.

[mweb08]

Disagree with saying the price was nothing. Two top-20 guys isn't nothing, especially not in a system like ours, even if Rom is going backwards. And while they're the higher current value guys, I think most agree that Showalter was pretty close to a major jump up into the top-30 and maybe higher depending on how he finishes the season..

I agree the price is worth paying, and that we can easily absorb the hit to the farm and still have a terrific farm system. But saying its nothing is akin to saying we gave up nothing for Travis Snider.

Agreed on the first paragraph.

I think the price plus more is worth paying for the type of player that was needed, which Flaherty is not imo.

[You Play to Win the Game]

They should’ve done a lot more “nothings” then. You can disrespect the middling value of those types of prospects, your choice for sure. But it doesn’t make it accurate to suggest it was nothing.

[BSLChrisStoner]

You keep saying the price to get 2 months of a 4.5 ERA/FIP/xFIP/BB9 is nothing. It isn’t accurate. They paid a price. And if you think it was “nothing”, then what’s the justification for not doing much more, given the nothingness it cost to do much more?

Did I say somewhere there was justification for not doing more?

They needed to come away with one high leverage reliever, and that should have been obtainable even if they limited themselves to using Ortiz, Basallo, Norby, Beavers, Wagner, & Haskin (some combination) to get one. 

And I said before... I would have been willing to move Kjerstad or Mayo (probably not both); if I was getting a front-end team controlled starter back.  

I did not want to see either moved for a middling rental.