79 replies to this topic

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Any recent comps of bats that were "only" 850ish OPS in college that turned into good hitting pros?

Can't find Lofton or Grissom's college stats. Pillar and Kiermaier were both very late picks. Juan Pierre was 375/450/520 but at a smaller school. Brian Roberts was 350/460/600 at UNC and South Carolina. Not intending to only compare him to speedy leadoff guys, but those are the names we've mentioned the most in this thread.

Jackie Bradley Jr was under 800 as a junior in the SEC, but he had stronger years as a frosh and soph (Bradfield was also better as a soph).

Prob are. Surely are. Now, were there any picked in the Top 20 of a draft. Thats gonna be hard, if not impossible, to find. No doubt there. Tells me two things. They think the speed and D are that legit. And they think they see easy fixes that can make him a better hitter or at least a productive hitter in the big leagues.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Any recent comps of bats that were "only" 850ish OPS in college that turned into good hitting pros?

Can't find Lofton or Grissom's college stats. Pillar and Kiermaier were both very late picks. Juan Pierre was 375/450/520 but at a smaller school. Brian Roberts was 350/460/600 at UNC and South Carolina. Not intending to only compare him to speedy leadoff guys, but those are the names we've mentioned the most in this thread.

Jackie Bradley Jr was under 800 as a junior in the SEC, but he had stronger years as a frosh and soph (Bradfield was also better as a soph).

The other thing to note is the change in college bats and college offensive environment. Juan Pierre and BRob arent sluggling .520 and .600 if they had to use the bats they use today.

[makoman]

Any recent comps of bats that were "only" 850ish OPS in college that turned into good hitting pros?

 

Can't find Lofton or Grissom's college stats.  Pillar and Kiermaier were both very late picks.  Juan Pierre was 375/450/520 but at a smaller school.  Brian Roberts was 350/460/600 at UNC and South Carolina.  Not intending to only compare him to speedy leadoff guys, but those are the names we've mentioned the most in this thread.

 

Jackie Bradley Jr was under 800 as a junior in the SEC, but he had stronger years as a frosh and soph (Bradfield was also better as a soph).

Westburg was .707, .859, then .949 but only 16 games due to being 2020. Stowers was .892 Soph and Jr years, I.e. lower than Bradfield's Soph year. I'd call them good hitting pros due to AAA performance (you may have only meant MLB, but that's a jump that's unpredictable IMO). 

 

Mike Yaz was .800, .810, .861.

 

Not really comps to Bradfield type of player though.

 

I only looked back at like 10-15 O's draft classes. Man was it rough for a long time. And the college guys that ended up good generally were over .900 in college.

[Slidemaster]

Where will EBJ slot into our top 10 organizational prospects? 4? 5? Probably higher if you take out Westburg and Cowser.

[makoman]

Where will EBJ slot into our top 10 organizational prospects? 4? 5? Probably higher if you take out Westburg and Cowser.

He's below Holliday, Cowser, Westburg, Kjerstad, Mayo, definitely, for me. Holliday speaks for himself and for the others being successful at upper levels matters. Not sure about Ortiz because again being close is a big deal and you're relying on big potential, I think he can still be a starting SS with good defense. Ahead of Norby as he's relying mostly on hit only and slowed down at AAA. Similar to Basallo I guess in that regard, major potential but Basallo is still even further away and Bradfield is pretty much guaranteed to play a premium position so he's ahead. So 6-7 I'd say but it could change a lot with graduations soon and depending how he takes to changes.

[Mackus]

Just cherry-picking some guys I'm coming across...

 

Richie Martin was 830 OPS at Florida his junior year (After pretty bad first two years) and still went #20.

[BobPhelan]

Where will EBJ slot into our top 10 organizational prospects? 4? 5? Probably higher if you take out Westburg and Cowser.

He’s #10 for me.

1. Jackson Holliday
2. Coby Mayo
3. Colton Cowser
4. Joey Ortiz
5. Heston Kjerstad
6. Jordan Westburg
7. Samuel Basallo
8. Connor Norby
9. Cade Povich
10. Enrique Bradfield Jr

[TwentyThirtyFive]

Holliday
Cowser
Mayo
Westburg
Kjerstad
Ortiz
Basello
Bradfield
Norby
Beavers

[TwentyThirtyFive]

For me clearly a line after Bradfield btw. Him and above Top 100 guys. I dont think Norby and below are.

[Mackus]

Come on guys, lets not be beholden to silly criteria.  Westburg and Cowser have graduated!  Also more fun to discuss the last few guys than the top few right now.  More names involved.  Really impressive for the top-10 to remain so deep.

[makoman]

Come on guys, lets not be beholden to silly criteria.  Westburg and Cowser have graduated!  Also more fun to discuss the last few guys than the top few right now.  More names involved.  Really impressive for the top-10 to remain so deep.

Then I'd go:

1. Holliday

-

2. Mayo

3. Kjerstad

-

4. Ortiz

5. Bradfield

6. Basallo

-

7. Norby

8. Beavers

9. Povich

10. Hall

 

With little difference within those tiers. 

[TwentyThirtyFive]

It would then be Povich and probably Johnson for me. I understand Johnson hasnt played and has to prove himself post TJ. No problem with anyone not being able to put him above a Fabian but he offers the most upside for me as a legit SP prospect.

[Mackus]

Then I'd go:
1. Holliday
-
2. Mayo
3. Kjerstad
-
4. Ortiz
5. Bradfield
6. Basallo
-
7. Norby
8. Beavers
9. Povich
10. Hall

With little difference within those tiers.

I think I'd bump Ortiz and Norby up a tier, but like this list a lot.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

I think Mayo is in a tier by himself. Then if you want to seperate Kjerstad from the next group thats fine too but I dont think I would.

[Mackus]

I think Mayo is in a tier by himself. Then if you want to seperate Kjerstad from the next group thats fine too but I dont think I would.

Yeah I'm on board with this take, too.

Holliday's on another planet. Mayo is trending towards the top-half of top-100. Kjerstad and Ortiz are a tier down as 2nd half of top-100 guys. I don't think Bradfield quite cracks that tier, but it'll be interesting to see how scouts rank him. I wanna go see where middle of 1st round guys usually fall, I'd imagine that many/most are short of the initial top-100.

[hallas]

I think Mayo is in a tier by himself. Then if you want to seperate Kjerstad from the next group thats fine too but I dont think I would.

 

If we had to trade someone would you trade Kjerstad over Mayo?  Even though Kjerstad is probably closer?

[Mackus]

If we had to trade someone would you trade Kjerstad over Mayo? Even though Kjerstad is probably closer?

I would. Age being the big separator. Mayo matched what Kjerstad did at Bowie, but 3 years younger. Kjerstad gets points for having continued te success at Norfolk, but not enough to make up the age gap. Think Mayo is likely the more valuable defender as well, or at least has a better shot of not getting stuck at 1B.

[TwentyThirtyFive]

If we had to trade someone would you trade Kjerstad over Mayo? Even though Kjerstad is probably closer?

Yes, it wouldnt be a particularly hard decision and I like Kjerstad. I realize this knowing Kjerstad will likely have an easier MLB park too. For me Mayo is a 60 in game power. Like 35 HR potential even playing 81 in OPACY. Quite possible he gets to 65 or even 70 . Hes been an XBH machine at Bowie

[BaltBird 24]

How would we be viewing Mayo if he were a 1st round pick? Dude had a 1.026 OPS at AA as a 21 year old.

He may not be that far off from Holliday, honestly.

[Mike B]

IMO he’s the perfect candidate for reconstructing a swing:

 

he’s intellectually curious, he researches everything, and he’s already got the wheels and glove. Bonus points for already possessing a good eye at the plate.

 

Personally, I don’t care about launch angles. I want to see gap power and a hit tool that sprays the ball to all fields. 

 

Like I said last night, my guess is the O’s gamed it out where if he fell into their lap, they were taking him.

Based on some of the comments, he changed his swing to get better launch angles.  I am with you, just hit the way it works for you.  Screw the launch angles.