94 replies to this topic

[FlavaDave10]

Casilla shouldn't be starting for a contender. I hate black holes in the lineup. If DD wants to make him the UIF that's fine but I don't want to see him penciled in the 9 spot every day. Rather see Flaherty and use Casilla as a late inning defensive replacement.

Is this a good time to bring up the fact that Flaherty and Casilla are equals as far as production? Casilla had a slightly higher OPS+ than Flaherty last year. Granted, Flaherty does have pop. But I'm not going to let a month long hot streak sway my views on him. Just like I didn't let a month long hot streak sway my views on Andino in 2011.

[mweb08]

He seems like a fine utility infielder. And I guess he can compete for the starting 2B spot if they don't do anything better.

[FlavaDave10]

He seems like a fine utility infielder. And I guess he can compete for the starting 2B spot if they don't do anything better.

At least he's really good defensively. Hard to find a good hitting 2B, so you might as well go the defensive route at second base if you can't find one.

[mweb08]

BTW, I forget who I was debating about this with, but this quote goes back to what I was saying about teams not wanting to spend about $4.5 per WAR for guys (other than relievers) that are expected to be in the 1-2 WAR range.

Casilla had been a non-tender candidate in Minnesota since he projects to earn $1.8MM following a disappointing season.
Read more at http://www.mlbtrader... ... IukqoT8.99

Casilla has ranged from 1.1 and 1.3 fWAR the last 3 seasons in limited playing time, yet no one would go out and give him $5 million a year.

[BobPhelan]

Sure, they can DFA him and get stuck with paying his projected $1.8M salary. Also, it says in the link that DD is not going to pursue other 2B options now and that is bad unless it is lip service.

Andino is projected to make $1.8 million in arbitration. Just non-tender him and Casilla takes his place for the same amount of money. So you upgrade without spending any extra money.

[FlavaDave10]

Andino is projected to make $1.8 million in arbitration. Just non-tender him and Casilla takes his place for the same amount of money. So you upgrade without spending any extra money.

But can Casilla review movies like Andino?

[Mackus]

This is obviously already the replacement for Andino, not a ST type battle, IMO.

Both of these guys are gonna make in the $1.75-2M range through arbitration if they are tendered contracts. There is no chance both get tendered. So, Casilla is the utility infielder for next season. Keeping both makes little sense, because you would still have a very weak starting 2B and your generic utility infielder would be costing nearly $2M on top of not having a good starter.

Personally, I wouldn't add Casilla and non-tender Andino, and then bring in a utlity infielder (possibly either Andino or Casilla) in FA for about $750k or so. I don't think Angelos is gonna give the team enough payroll flexibility to be where that additional $1M isn't very important.

[JeffLong]

I think he is a better fielder than Andino. If anything, it provides more competition for the position in Spring Training.
He is a player I have always liked, and I cannot give you a good reason why.

Ironic - he's a player I've always hated, but I can't give you a good reason why.

[JeffLong]

BTW, I forget who I was debating about this with, but this quote goes back to what I was saying about teams not wanting to spend about $4.5 per WAR for guys (other than relievers) that are expected to be in the 1-2 WAR range.



Casilla has ranged from 1.1 and 1.3 fWAR the last 3 seasons in limited playing time, yet no one would go out and give him $5 million a year.

I think part of this issue with that is upside. You could likely save money by putting young guys (read: rookies / 4A) that have the upside of 3-4 WAR. I'd be shocked if Casilla put up 3 WAR. I would not be shocked if Flaherty managed that.

[mweb08]

This is obviously already the replacement for Andino, not a ST type battle, IMO.

Both of these guys are gonna make in the $1.75-2M range through arbitration if they are tendered contracts. There is no chance both get tendered. So, Casilla is the utility infielder for next season. Keeping both makes little sense, because you would still have a very weak starting 2B and your generic utility infielder would be costing nearly $2M on top of not having a good starter.

Personally, I wouldn't add Casilla and non-tender Andino, and then bring in a utlity infielder (possibly either Andino or Casilla) in FA for about $750k or so. I don't think Angelos is gonna give the team enough payroll flexibility to be where that additional $1M isn't very important.

I agree that this means Andino will very likely be non-tendered.

I doubt that a player of Casilla's quality and predictability can be signed for 750k, so I don't mind this move. If he ends up as a starter, he can be around 2 WAR. Not great, but good for the salary.

One thing I would have considered is a combination of Sean Rodriguez and Flaherty.

[Tucker Blair]

Ironic - he's a player I've always hated, but I can't give you a good reason why.

Looks like we are destined to be rivals!!!

[mweb08]

I think part of this issue with that is upside. You could likely save money by putting young guys (read: rookies / 4A) that have the upside of 3-4 WAR. I'd be shocked if Casilla put up 3 WAR. I would not be shocked if Flaherty managed that.

I agree and that was part of my point in the previous discussion about this. Without much upside for more, teams don't generally pay players $4.5M per expected win, especially at the < 2.5 WAR level.

Part of that is teams often have guys that they think can replicate that type of production, or even more, for much less money as you point out.

[Icterus galbula]

I like this move. Better than the FA options. You can pencil him in as a 2B upgrade over Andino, but also he is someone that fits as Util if a better option comes along.

[FlavaDave10]

I like this move. Better than the FA options. You can pencil him in as a 2B upgrade over Andino, but also he is someone that fits as Util if a better option comes along.

Paging Jonathan Schoop...

[Kevin Ebert]

I agree and that was part of my point in the previous discussion about this. Without much upside for more, teams don't generally pay players $4.5M per expected win, especially at the < 2.5 WAR level.

Part of that is teams often have guys that they think can replicate that type of production, or even more, for much less money as you point out.

He's not a free agent. He's still under team control. If he was a free agent, he would be paid $4.5-5m per win. Watch what Keppinger and Scutaro get.

[JeffLong]

I agree and that was part of my point in the previous discussion about this. Without much upside for more, teams don't generally pay players $4.5M per expected win, especially at the < 2.5 WAR level.

Part of that is teams often have guys that they think can replicate that type of production, or even more, for much less money as you point out.

Absolutely. That's the difficulty in assigning a dollar amount to WAR. There are diminishing returns because I'll pay $6 million per WAR if you're going to put up 5-8 WAR per season. If you're going to put up 1-4 WAR per season my threshold is closer to $2 million per WAR. If that makes sense.

[mweb08]

He's not a free agent. He's still under team control. If he was a free agent, he would be paid $4.5-5m per win. Watch what Keppinger and Scutaro get.

If he would have been paid about $5M on the open market, the Twins would either have wanted to retain him for the bargain that he would be, or they have been able to trade him.

Scutaro may get paid well because of how great a finish to the season he had then an even better Playoffs.

Both of these guys are higher WAR guys than Casilla so not quite what I'm talking about, but I'm still pretty sure neither will get $12M a year.

[JeremyStrain]

If he would have been paid about $5M on the open market, the Twins would either have wanted to retain him for the bargain that he would be, or they have been able to trade him.

Scutaro may get paid well because of how of his great finish to the season and even better Playoffs.

Both of these guys are higher WAR guys than Casilla so not quite what I'm talking about, but I'm still pretty sure neither will get $12M a year.

This whole conversation is a good shameless plug for a post on Camden depot Monday about the best replacement level players since 1983.

[FlavaDave10]

This whole conversation is a good shameless plug for a post on Camden depot Monday about the best replacement level players since 1983.

Willie "The Silent Assassin" Boomquist better be on there. He pretty much defines replacement level.

[mweb08]

Absolutely. That's the difficulty in assigning a dollar amount to WAR. There are diminishing returns because I'll pay $6 million per WAR if you're going to put up 5-8 WAR per season. If you're going to put up 1-4 WAR per season my threshold is closer to $2 million per WAR. If that makes sense.

It does make sense.

If there's any GM out there that looks at a 1 WAR player without projecting him to be better, and then says, hey, I should pay that guy 4.5-5 million dollars because that's what FanGraphs' research has concluded is the average cost per WAR, well then that GM should be fired.

It becomes more defensible as you go up the WAR ladder. Even though, in all cases, the goal should be to do quite a bit better than the average market rate for free agent dollars per WAR.